Deny GOP

New Hampshire poised to deny GOP its Trump alternative

The first primary is likely to leave Trump leading the pack as the mainstreamers brawl for scraps.

By Eli Stokols and Alex Isenstadt

New Hampshire was supposed to deliver a mainstream GOP candidate to stand against Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. Instead, it could may make those two anti-establishment firebrands even stronger.

After Marco Rubio’s collapse in Saturday’s GOP debate, establishment Republicans, who thought they’d found their savior in the young Floridian, are resigned to the likelihood that Tuesday’s primary won’t narrow the field the way they’d hoped it would.

If Donald Trump finishes first with a muddled pack of four establishment contenders behind him, a mainstream alternative might not emerge until after South Carolina votes on Feb. 20, complicating the path for those competing in that lane.

That potentially sets up the Trump vs. Cruz race that party elites have been dreading from the moment two months ago when Iowa settled into a two-man contest.

“It's clear we need to figure out who is that consensus candidate who can beat Trump, Cruz and then Hillary,” said Henry Barbour, a Republican National Committee member from Mississippi. “That person seems more likely to emerge after South Carolina.”

While Chris Christie is crowing in his final campaign appearances that his aggressive debate takedown of Rubio “changed this entire race” — and it’s true that stopping Rubio’s momentum before he could consolidate establishment support helps all rival candidates — Trump is the most obvious beneficiary.

“The best scenario for Trump is a jumbled up pack of candidates in second place in New Hampshire,” said Curt Anderson, a GOP strategist who guided Bobby Jindal’s presidential campaign last year. “That works perfectly for him. He’d love it if four guys came in within 4 or 5 points of each other, giving each campaign the mirage of future success to chase.”

Despite his big lead in national polls, Trump is desperate for a win in New Hampshire after failing to meet expectations in Iowa, where he underperformed the polls and finished second behind Cruz. Rubio, who finished a strong third in Iowa, seemed to be nipping at his heels here a week ago. But over the long run, a wide GOP field of candidates splitting up votes and delegates helps Trump, just as consolidation could hurt him.

“Because of his high unfavorable ratings, he needs as many candidates in the race as possible for as long as possible,” Anderson continued. “He’d like them all to stay in for months; that is an excellent route to victory for him. Anything that prohibits or stalls a two- or three-man race is great for Trump.”

In recent weeks, Christie’s support has dipped in New Hampshire, placing him behind Trump, Cruz and his three rivals in the establishment lane: Rubio, John Kasich and Jeb Bush. It’s possible Christie’s debate knockout punch translates into a late surge tonight to pass at least one of those candidates, all of whom are desperate to win enough support to make a plausible case for continuing on to South Carolina.

“I think that the debate changes the calculus for Chris Christie on this. The destruction of Marco Rubio in that debate was such that barring a disaster for Chris Christie in New Hampshire, I think he’s earned a ticket out, at least to South Carolina in a tumultuous race,” said Steve Schmidt, who managed John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign.

Schmidt added that Rubio’s slip could lift all the governors still running. “It wasn’t just a bad debate performance on the scale of President Bush’s first debate performance in 2004 or Barack Obama’s in 2012. It was a debate performance on par with Dan Quayle’s against Lloyd Bentsen’s. It was a fundamental unmasking.”

Following the debate, pro-Bush and pro-Kasich super PACs conducted snapshot polls showing Rubio taking a precipitous hit.

On Monday, as candidates crisscrossed the state on the final day of campaigning before voting begins, the two candidates who still lead the RealClearPolitics average of New Hampshire GOP polls each betrayed their desperation — and the unsettled nature of this race — in different ways.

Rubio, after an appearance at a Nashua business, braved the falling snow and made four retail stops at restaurants and a phone bank, all of which were added to his scheduled just hours earlier. Trump, whose mass media-heavy campaign has eschewed retail politics and building out organizational bandwidth in lieu of holding large rallies and doing network TV interviews, spent Monday holding two town hall-style events here, taking questions directly from voters and speaking to far smaller crowds.

Bush and Kasich, each depending on a strong organizational push in New Hampshire and hoping for a showing here that keeps their campaigns alive, are crossing their fingers that Rubio’s debate performance causes his support to collapse so dramatically that they can surpass him in the final tally. While Kasich has refused to attack his rivals, Bush has shown newfound energy in criticizing his directly — Trump, most of all.

But few other candidates have taken aim at Trump, despite his overwhelming lead in the polls here.

“I don’t think it’s ever happened before that someone has been ahead in a race and not been attacked in a sustained way,” said Stuart Stevens, the GOP strategist who guided Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign. “All you’re doing is allowing Trump to get stronger. This week, he was a loser. Next week, he’s probably going to have won New Hampshire. I think it’s a real miscalculation.”