Is Carson done?

Carson's day of reckoning

His allies are saying that unless he sees success on March 1, Carson may shut down his quixotic bid.

By Kyle Cheney

Ben Carson is under pressure to drop his presidential bid after a string of back-of-the-pack primary finishes, but he's insisting to allies that he plans to hold on through Super Tuesday.

But that stand is likely to be his last, according to people close to the Carson camp who say more disappointing results in the conservative, mostly Southern states voting on March 1 would be the decisive blow to force the candidate out.

"I think Super Tuesday, March 1, is going to be a moment of truth," said Armstrong Williams, a Carson friend and confidant, describing the day when a dozen, mostly Southern states cast their ballots.

“You cannot ignore the fact that our predictions of what would happen and what could turn this around have not come to fruition yet," Williams said. "Unless that happens, it is obvious what the outcome will be."

Early polling returns put Carson at a distant fourth-place finish in the Nevada caucuses Tuesday, a showing that follows last-place finishes in South Carolina and New Hampshire and a distant fourth-place close in Iowa.

Carson's campaign says Williams doesn't speak for the candidate, though he's had a heavy hand in significant campaign strategy and personnel decisions. And on Tuesday night, Carson was defiant, saying he thought the tide would soon turn in his favor. “I believe that things are starting to happen here,” Carson told supporters after the caucuses closed.

But Williams isn't alone in labeling March 1 as a potential endpoint for a campaign that has grown increasingly quixotic.

“I think his position will be very clear by Super Tuesday," said Timothy McDaniel, a longtime family friend of the Carson and his wife Candy Carson. "Ben and Candy are under a lot of pressure.”

McDaniel added, however, that some of the pressure on Carson is in the opposite direction. "They have a large number of supporters encouraging them to continue," he said.

“I’m convinced he’ll stay in through Super Tuesday,” said Mike Shirkey, a Michigan state senator who chairs Carson’s campaign there. Shirkey said he’s laying the groundwork for Carson to continue past March 1 and join him in Michigan, one of four states that vote on March 8 – but only because he hasn’t heard otherwise.

“I know that there’s a full commitment through Super Tuesday,” he said. “Right now, because it takes time to plan events and so forth, there’s no reason to believe he can’t be here. We’re making plans right now for him to attend a number of different events the weekend before the Michigan primary.”

Bill Millis, a prominent GOP fundraiser who left his official role in Carson's campaign in November amid strategic differences, said he plans to confer with Carson and his current campaign chairman, Robert Dees, on Wednesday. "I have my opinion of what Dr. Carson should do, and will share with him, but hope to determine exactly what his plans are," Millis said. "I prefer not to state my position at this point."

Carson himself isn’t showing signs of wavering. He’s insisted he constantly reevaluates his decision to continue in the race, but says he has always landed on the side of giving his supporters--the thousands of small donors who continue to fuel his campaign even as his poll numbers cratered in the fall--a chance to vote for him.

“If you remember the story of the tortoise and the hare,” he said Tuesday morning on Fox & Friends. “If you give up on the tortoise too early, you’re only going to have the hare who is exhausted and not very effective.”

Carson has been all-but-ignored by his rivals since collapsing in polls in November. Once a threat to win Iowa and carry conservative momentum across the South, his campaign unraveled amid questions about his foreign policy awareness that emerged shortly after the Nov. 13 terror attacks in Paris. In addition, Carson's campaign has been beset by profligate spending, shoveling millions to high-priced consultants that left the campaign struggling to stay afloat during the most crucial stretch of primary season. Carson laid off dozens of staffers after his disappointing finish in Iowa.

Carson’s ex-advisers, many of whom left in a New Year's Eve shakeup, split on whether he should continue an uphill campaign at a time when GOP leaders hope to shrink the field to the three candidates who have shown the most success so far: Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

“Should he stay in to mollify supporters? Well, the inevitable result will not change, nor is the objective worthy enough to continue in certain futility,” said Doug Watts, who quit as Carson’s communications chief in December. Watts suggested Carson retool his campaign to focus on a single issue--the national debt--and use that to sway the debate among the top three contenders.

But Barry Bennett, Carson’s former campaign manager – now an informal adviser to Trump – said Carson has no reason to quit as long as money is flowing in. And recent FEC reports show he brought in $3.8 million in January, enough to keep him afloat for awhile.

A former Carson aide who spoke on condition of anonymity suggested Carson’s departure could affect the race depending on whether he endorses a rival, steering his base of evangelical support in that direction.

Still, while Carson's campaign may lack any evident course to even reach relevance at the ballot box, the candidate's personal history -- from impoverished youth to star neurosurgeon -- suggests a willingness to fight uphill battles.

“In the end, you suspend your campaign for one of two reasons: You have to because of resources [or] you give up the fight because the odds are long,” the former aide said. “Ben has the resources to shoestring this. Find one time in his life where he gave up because the odds were long.”

Williams, like others in Carson's inner circle, treads lightly around the saying whether he should drop out, insisting that Carson must make the decision on his own.

"Dr. Carson will decide sooner or later whether or not he will continue forward, and only he will make that decision -- Not the RNC, not the establishment, not the donors," he said. "If the time ever comes for him to move forward and exit the stage, he’ll do it with grace, with laughter and with no regrets."