Wrongometer again for GOP

The POLITICO Wrongometer

Our policy reporters truth-squad the Republican debate.

Cruz plays it loose with phone encryption

Ted Cruz sided with the FBI in its encryption dispute with Apple in the San Bernardino terrorist case because he said the government only wanted access to one phone, not to create a backdoor into all phones. But you can’t have one without the other. Legally speaking, FBI Director James Comey acknowledged, under questioning from a House subcommittee, that the case could set a precedent. Technologically speaking, Apple says the capability the FBI wants (disabling the device’s self-destruct after a certain number of wrong password attempts) does not exist and would have to be created specially; if Apple did so, the same could be done toward unlocking any phone.

— Isaac Arnsdorf

Trump was for toppling Muammar Qadhafi—before he wasn’t

Ted Cruz took Donald Trump to task for what he called competing statements about whether he supported the toppling of Libyan dictator Muammar Qadhafi in 2011. Trump stuck to his guns, insisting that the air war that led to Qadhafi’s death by an angry mob was a mistake that created a vacuum now filled by Islamic militants, including followers of the Islamic State – some of whom were the target of U.S. airstrikes last week. But in 2011, as pressure was building to stop Qadhafi from slaughtering civilians seeking to topple him, Trump said on his video blog that it was past time to remove the dictator from power.

“It’s horrible what’s going on; it has to be stopped,” Trump said at the time. “We should do on a humanitarian basis, immediately go into Libya, knock this guy out very quickly, very surgically, very effectively, and save the lives.”

— Bryan Bender

How big is the deficit? Not as big as Trump thinks.

“Because of the horrible omnibus budget that was approved two weeks ago, [the debt] is going to be $21 trillion,” Donald Trump said, after noting that it is $19 trillion today. Is the deficit really going to be $2 trillion next year? Nope. The Congressional Budget Office’s most recent budget projections, from January, incorporate the omnibus budget deal and project a deficit of $544 billion in 2016 and $561 billion in 2017.

— Danny Vinik

Trump passes judgment on a cease-fire that isn't

As the foreign-policy portion of the debate gained momentum, Donald Trump argued that the new cease-fire deal in Syria is “meaningless,” “not working” and people are not abiding by it. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical it will be effective, but not yet: it doesn't take effect until Saturday.

— Nahal Toosi

Trump says he "can't" release tax returns. He can.

Trump repeatedly said he “can’t” release some of his tax returns because he’s being audited by the Internal Revenue Service. However, there’s no legal restriction on him doing so. Tax returns are confidential by law and can’t be released by the IRS, but a taxpayer can release his or her forms publicly if he or she sees fit. And of course, some of Trump’s returns are not under audit. At this point, he hasn't released those either.

— Josh Gerstein

Trump says Samuel Alito signed a bill that he didn't sign—and wasn't a bill

Trump: “I have a sister who's….a brilliant judge. [Cruz]'s been criticizing my sister for signing a certain bill. You know who else signed that bill? Justice Samuel Alito, a very conservative member of the Supreme Court, with my sister, signed that bill. So I think that maybe we should get a little bit of an apology from Ted.” Trump’s description of the “bill” signed by Alito and his sister, Maryanne Trump Barry, appears to refer to a court opinion issued in 2000 by the 3rd Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals when Alito was a member of that court. That decision struck down New Jersey’s Partial-Birth Abortion Ban Act. Alito was part of the three-judge panel that considered the case, but he did not sign Barry’s majority opinion upholding the law. “I do not join Judge Barry's opinion, which was never necessary and is now obsolete,” Alito wrote. It is true that Alito reached the same result Barry did, but he did not endorse her opinion and officially disclaimed it.

— Josh Gerstein

Trump overstates insurance premium increases, by a lot

Under Obamacare, are health insurance premiums going up "25, 35, 45 percent and more," as Donald Trump says? There are examples of individuals whose costs rose when they had to buy more comprehensive plans. But overall premium increases have been more modest in the last few years than they had been in the recent past. The Kaiser Family Foundation has a state-by-state list of how premiums changed in the Obamacare market, and last year the average increase was 4 percent. Tonight's debate is being held in Texas, and the survey shows that in Houston, premiums only rose 2.4 percent – and they actually dropped by 1 percent after subsidies were taken into account.

— Joanne Kenen

Americans pay the highest taxes? Not close.

“We have the highest taxes in the world—corporate tax, personal tax,” Donald Trump said. He’s right that the U.S. has the highest corporate tax rate, although that is just in the developed world. But he’s wrong about personal taxes. The top income tax rate for Americans is 39.5 percent, far lower than Sweden’s 57 percent top tax rate or Denmark’s 55.6 percent tax rate.

Of course, Americans pay other taxes besides the federal income tax—there’s the payroll tax, the capital gains tax and state and local taxes. But overall, the U.S. tax burden is quite low compared to other countries. According to the OECD, total taxes in the U.S. amounted to 26 percent of GDP in 2014. That’s lower than just about every other developed country, except for Mexico, Chile and France. For example, taxes in France amount to 45.2 percent of GDP and in Denmark amount to 50.9 percent of GDP. So no, U.S. taxes are nowhere close to highest in the world.

— Danny Vinik

Trump "won most" of the Trump University lawsuit? Hm.

Marco Rubio called Trump University a “fake school” that only left students with a “cardboard cutout of Donald Trump.”

"There are people that borrowed $36,000 to go to Trump University and they are suing him now,” Rubio said.

In response, Trump said he “won most of the lawsuit" and that Trump University "actually did a very good job.” It's unclear what case Trump was talking about. In reality, there are still two pending lawsuits against Trump University, which didn’t grant degrees but ran real estate seminars. A civil trial in the fraud case filed by former students that’s been playing out in federal court in San Diego could come sometime after May 6, which is the scheduled date of the last pre-trial conference. In fact, Trump is on the witness list. A separate suit filed against Trump University by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman in 2013 is also still ongoing. While critics have accused Trump University of misleading students about its results, Trump's attorneys have said the accusations are without merit.

— Kimberly Hefling

Rubio overstates Trump's fine

"You're the only person on this stage that's ever been fined for hiring people to work on your projects illegally. You hired some workers from Poland .... He hired workers from Poland and he had to pay a million dollars or so in a judgment," said Marco Rubio to Donald Trump. Rubio was right that Trump settled a lawsuit alleging that he hired Polish workers illegally in New York City. But there is no reason to think he paid $1 million, as Rubio claimed.

The lawsuit was filed in 1983 on behalf of Polish demolition workers who Trump hired to clear the ground for the future Trump tower, according to a 1999 article in the New York Daily News. “The workers, many of them undocumented immigrants, sweated through round-the-clock shifts and some even slept on the floors of the building they were demolishing,” the article said. Trump was accused of hiring the non-union Polish workers to skirt contributions to union benefit funds. A New York federal judge ruled against Trump, and the workers’ lawyer at the time expected a judgment of $1-2 million, according to the New York Times. But the judgment was later reversed on appeal. Trump settled the case for an undisclosed amount before retrial.

— Brian Mahoney

Rubio prematurely declares ethanol's demise

"Ethanol will phase out. It is phasing out now. By 2022 that program expires by virtue of the existing law, and by that point it will go away," said Marco Rubio. It won't. The Renewable Fuel Standard, which requires refiners to mix specified amounts of ethanol and other biofuels into gasoline, does not phase out in 2022. That's when the annual targets set by Congress in 2007 end, and EPA is given greater discretion to set the annual mandates — but the program itself continues indefinitely. Senate Environment and Public Works Chairman Jim Inhofe recently backed a measure that would sunset the RFS after 2022.

— Alex Guillén

How much winning? Maybe not this much winning.

Trump claimed he won the Nevada caucuses not just among Hispanics but in every category. Not so. According to CNN, Marco Rubio won among 17- to 29-year-olds and people who said electability matters most and the next president should be experienced in politics. Cruz won among voters who said the most important quality was that the candidate “shares my values."

— Isaac Arnsdorf

Trump's China is a lot more successful than actual China

Is the U.S. "losing $500 billion a year to China"? That's how Trump put it, but if ever starts negotiating he might want to check his starting position. According to the Census Bureau, the U.S. trade deficit with China was $366 billion in 2015.

— Danny Vinik

How much did Trump inherit?

Rubio said if Donald Trump hadn’t inherited $200 million he’d be selling watches in Manhattan. Sick burn, but wrong. Trump’s father was reportedly worth $200 million when he died, Trump is one of five siblings, so his share was only $40 million. However, Trump’s comeback line that all he got was a $1 million loan isn’t true either.

— Isaac Arnsdorf

Cruz thinks deportees can't come back

“Existing law says those who have been deported cannot come back into the country, that's the law,” said Ted Cruz. It’s more complicated than that. True, it’s not easy for someone who’s been deported from the United States to get a visa to return. But it’s not impossible. According to guidelines from the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, someone who’s been deported in the past may have to wait a certain number of years before being eligible to apply for entry. It could be five years, 10 years or 20 years depending on the specific circumstances. Those convicted of certain crimes may never be let back in.

— Nahal Toosi

Trump, the only hirer?

On defense over allegations of staffing his projects with immigrants, Trump shot back that he’s the only one on stage who ever hired anyone. It’s funny, but indefensible, even if you set aside the campaign staff that all the candidates obviously hired. Kasich, besides everyone he hired as governor of Ohio, worked at Lehman Brothers between his time in Congress and the governor’s mansion. Carson would almost surely have been involved in hiring as director of Pediatric Neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins Hospital.

— Isaac Arnsdorf

Cruz makes Texas a little too big

Ted Cruz made a home state pitch to start the debate, noting his promises to 27 million Texans back during his first Senate campaign. He's rounding pretty far up—by about a million. The Census shows just over 26 million people in Texas when Cruz was first elected in 2012.

— Darren Samuelsohn