A place were I can write...

My simple blog of pictures of travel, friends, activities and the Universe we live in as we go slowly around the Sun.



November 30, 2021

At least someone is smart...

EU court upholds Parliament’s coronavirus rules

Parliament can demand of vaccine certificate, test or proof of recovery to enter its buildings.

BY DAVID M. HERSZENHORN

The Court of Justice of the European Union on Tuesday rejected a challenge to the European Parliament's COVID rules, saying EU legislation can require that elected officials and staff show a vaccination certificate, negative test or proof of recovery to enter its buildings.

The Parliament's sanitary rules, which were adopted in late October, had faced a legal challenge from some members of the Parliament and their aides. But in its ruling, the Court refused to suspend the rules, saying they posed no obstacle to members of the Parliament fulfilling their official duties.

The president of the CJEU had previously ordered a provisional modification of the rules allowing MEPs to enter the Parliament's buildings — in Brussels, Strasbourg and Luxembourg — based on a negative self-test. Those modifications still apply.

"The decision to condition access to the buildings of the Parliament in its three places of work on presentation of an EU digital COVID certificate, or an equivalent certificate, has neither the purpose nor the effect of calling into question the exercise of mandates of deputies elected to the Parliament or the exercise of professional activities," the Court wrote in its decision.

"As for the alleged direct attack on the representational power of MEPs and their ability to work in a meaningful way and effective in that the contested decision also applies to their assistants and staff Parliament," the Court found that opponents of the rules "put forward no specific argument to establish that these persons are not in a position to comply in good time with the access conditions imposed."

In upholding Parliament's health restrictions, the Court avoided potential allegations of hypocrisy, given that anyone currently seeking to enter the Court's own buildings now must undergo a mandatory temperature check, and those permitted entry (with temperature no higher than 37.5 degrees) are obligated to wear masks.

Reshuffles Labour team

UK’s Keir Starmer reshuffles Labour team to ‘make Brexit work’

Shake-up comes amid signs of tension between opposition leader and his deputy.

BY ESTHER WEBBER

The U.K.’s opposition leader conducted a major reshuffle of his top team Monday, replacing key shadow ministers in the home, foreign and international trade briefs.

Yvette Cooper, who was first a minister under Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair, will shadow Home Secretary Priti Patel, while David Lammy becomes shadow foreign secretary. 

Nick Thomas-Symonds takes over from Emily Thornberry in the trade brief, while Ed Miliband takes on a new role dedicated to climate change.

Speaking about the significance of his appointments, party leader Keir Starmer — who backed Remain in Britain’s 2016 EU referendum — said a “Make Brexit Work” promise was “a huge part of my agenda” and which would be led by Thomas-Symonds, while Miliband would focus on “the most important issue facing this country.”

Lisa Nandy, formerly shadow foreign secretary, will now go toe-to-toe with Michael Gove in his work at the Department for Levelling Up, Housing, Communities and Local Government.

Other key appointments include Jonathan Reynolds as shadow business secretary; Lucy Powell as shadow culture secretary; Bridget Phillipson as shadow education secretary; Jim McMahon as shadow environment secretary; Wes Streeting as shadow health secretary; and Jonathan Ashworth as shadow work and pensions secretary. 

Louise Haigh will become shadow transport secretary, replaced in her Northern Ireland job by Peter Kyle.

Starmer said the reshuffle delivered “a smaller, more focused shadow cabinet” which is “focused on the priorities of the country.”

Yet the reorganization played out against signs of discord between Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner, whose spokesperson said she had not been consulted ahead of the changes. 

Needs to be more than that... Need to see some flaming russian jets at least...

NATO warns Russia of ‘high price’ for any attack on Ukraine

Economic sanctions on table as allied foreign ministers met in Latvia to discuss new border threat.

BY DAVID M. HERSZENHORN

Another Russian invasion of Ukraine would carry a “high price,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned Tuesday, adding that the 30 allies together represent more than 50 percent of the global economy.

“Any future Russian aggression against Ukraine would come at a high price and have serious political and economic consequences for Russia,” Stoltenberg said at a news conference following a day of meetings among allied foreign ministers in Riga, Latvia.

The United States and other Western allies have warned of a large mobilization of Russian forces and weaponry along the border with Ukraine, raising the risk of a potential new invasion. Russia invaded and annexed Crimea in 2014 and has backed armed separatists in a nearly eight-year-long war that continues in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas.

Russia carried out a similar mobilization of forces last spring but the U.S. has told allies that aspects of the current build-up seem even more alarming this time.

“The situation in and around Ukraine remains fluid and unpredictable,” Stoltenberg said Tuesday. “There is no certainty about Russia’s intentions. We see a significant and unusual concentration of forces, which is unjustified and unexplained, and accompanied by heightened rhetoric and disinformation. And we know that Russia has used force before against Ukraine and other neighbors.”

Ukrainian officials have said they have no expectation that their Western supporters, including NATO allies, will join a military conflict against Russia. Senior officials have called for an increased NATO military presence in the region, including stepped-up air policing and additional support such as military training.

U.S. and EU officials have said that while Ukraine might request help in the form of weapons, they did not expect such assistance would ever tip the outcome of a conflict in Ukraine’s favor, but would simply raise the number of casualties for Russia and, inevitably, for Ukraine.

Pressed during his news conference about the specific steps that NATO allies might take in response to a Russian invasion, Stoltenberg focused on economic sanctions.

“NATO is a platform to make decisions but also to consult and coordinate efforts by NATO allied countries,” he said. “So for instance, on economic sanctions, political reactions, even though NATO doesn’t necessarily make the decisions to impose sanctions, that’s for individual allies to do, and for the European Union … the political discussion we have here is actually shaping the decisions we take as individual allies.”

“Therefore also economic sanctions and political reactions is part of what we have discussed today, also with the United States,” Stoltenberg said. “We represent 50 percent of the world’s GDP and of course it matters when NATO allies discuss also the use of economic sanctions against the behavior of Russia.”

He added, “We have seen our resolve and our willingness and our ability to maintain, sustain such economic sanctions when needed. I think that Russia actually underestimated the resolve of NATO allies to impose sanctions and sustain sanctions after the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.”

Just go away....

MAGA Congressman Falsely Claims Omicron Variant Is Part of Plot to Rig 2022 Election

“Democrats will do anything to CHEAT.”

NATHALIE BAPTISTE

The new coronavirus variant, Omicron—which was first detected by virologists in South Africa—has sparked concerns among public health experts. The United States quickly imposed travel restrictions on certain African countries. Scientists say that much about the new variant remains unknown. But it’s apparently not too soon for members of the US Congress to begin spouting ridiculous conspiracy theories about it.

In a tweet Saturday, Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas), who served as White House physician for Barack Obama and Donald Trump before running for office on a hard-MAGA platform, dubbed the new strain “the Midterm Election Variant.”

According to this latest crackpot theory, Democrats are going to use Omicron to “push” mail-in ballots during the midterm elections, which will supposedly enable massive amounts to cheating. 

There’s a lot to unpack here. When does Jackson think the midterm elections are? How could the Democrats be using a new variant discovered in November 2021 to impact elections that are a full year away? Are the South African doctors who reported it to the World Health Organization also part of Democrats’ plan to steal the elections? What about the other countries Omicron has been detected in? What role do they play?

Jackson’s tweet manages to hit on two conspiracy theories popular among far right: that the pandemic is somehow being manipulated by Democrats for political gain, and that the 2020 presidential election was stolen. It should go without saying that both of these theories are false. But as we approach the two-year mark in the pandemic, much of the world remains unvaccinated and patience is wearing thin. Ignorant tweets like Jackson’s will only fuel more conspiracy theories about the virus and endanger more lives. 

Something else to worry about...

Nurdles: The Worst Toxic Waste You’ve Probably Never Heard of

Plastic pellets cause as much damage as oil spills, but aren’t classified as hazardous.

KAREN MCVEIGH

When the X-Press Pearl container ship caught fire and sank in the Indian Ocean in May, Sri Lanka was terrified that the vessel’s 350 tonnes of heavy fuel oil would spill into the ocean, causing an environmental disaster for the country’s pristine coral reefs and fishing industry.

Classified by the UN as Sri Lanka’s “worst maritime disaster, the biggest impact was not caused by the heavy fuel oil. Nor was it the hazardous chemicals on board, which included nitric acid, caustic soda and methanol. The most “significant” harm, according to the UN, came from the spillage of 87 containers full of lentil-sized plastic pellets: nurdles.

Since the disaster, nurdles have been washing up in their billions along hundreds of miles of the country’s coastline, and are expected to make landfall across Indian Ocean coastlines from Indonesia and Malaysia to Somalia. In some places they are up to 2 meters deep. They have been found in the bodies of dead dolphins and the mouths of fish. About 1,680 tonnes of nurdles were released into the ocean. It is the largest plastic spill in history, according to the UN report.

Nurdles, the colloquial term for “pre-production plastic pellets,” are the little-known building block for all our plastic products. The tiny beads can be made of polyethylene, polypropylene, polystyrene, polyvinyl chloride and other plastics. Released into the environment from plastic plants or when shipped around the world as raw material to factories, they will sink or float, depending on the density of the pellets and if they are in freshwater or saltwater.

They are often mistaken for food by seabirds, fish and other wildlife. In the environment, they fragment into nanoparticles whose hazards are more complex. They are the second-largest source of micropollutants in the ocean, by weight, after tyre dust. An astounding 230,000 tons of nurdles end up in oceans every year.

Like crude oil, nurdles are highly persistent pollutants, and will continue to circulate in ocean currents and wash ashore for decades. They are also “toxic sponges,” which attract chemical toxins and other pollutants on to their surfaces.

“The pellets themselves are a mixture of chemicals—they are fossil fuels,” says Tom Gammage, at the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA), an international campaign group. “But they act as toxic sponges. A lot of toxic chemicals—which in the case of Sri Lanka are already in the water—are hydrophobic [repel water], so they gather on the surface of microplastics.

“Pollutants can be a million times more concentrated on the surface of pellets than in the water,” he says. “And we know from lab studies that when a fish eats a pellet, some of those pollutants come loose.” Like crude oil, nurdles are highly persistent pollutants, and will continue to circulate in ocean currents and wash ashore for decades. They are also “toxic sponges,” which attract chemical toxins and other pollutants on to their surfaces.

“The pellets themselves are a mixture of chemicals—they are fossil fuels,” says Tom Gammage, at the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA), an international campaign group. “But they act as toxic sponges. A lot of toxic chemicals—which in the case of Sri Lanka are already in the water—are hydrophobic [repel water], so they gather on the surface of microplastics.

“Pollutants can be a million times more concentrated on the surface of pellets than in the water,” he says. “And we know from lab studies that when a fish eats a pellet, some of those pollutants come loose.”

Yet nurdles, unlike substances such as kerosene, diesel and petrol, are not deemed hazardous under the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO’s) dangerous goods code for safe handling and storage. This is despite the threat to the environment from plastic pellets being known about for three decades, as detailed in a 1993 report from the US government’s Environmental Protection Agency on how the plastics industry could reduce spillages.

Now environmentalists are joining forces with the Sri Lankan government in an attempt to turn the X-Press Pearl disaster into a catalyst for change. When the IMO’s marine environment protection committee met in London this week, Sri Lanka’s call for nurdles to be classified as hazardous goods attracted public support, with more than 50,000 people signing a petition. “There is nothing to stop what happened in Sri Lanka happening again,” says Gammage.

Last year there were at least two nurdle spills. In the North Sea a broken container on the cargo ship MV Trans Carrier lost 10 tons of pellets, which washed up on the coasts of Denmark, Sweden, and Norway. In South Africa, a spill in August 2020 came after an accident in 2018, which affected up to 1,250 miles of coastline. Only 23 percent of the 49 tons that were spilled were recovered. In 2019, 342 containers of plastic pellets spilled into the North Sea.

Awareness is growing about the huge threat posed by the tiny pellets. Last year two environmental protesters in the US were charged under a Louisiana state law with “terrorizing” a plastics industry lobbyist when they left a box of nurdles outside his house as part of a campaign to stop the Taiwan-based Formosa Plastics opening a factory in Louisiana.

The nurdles came from another Formosa plant in Texas, which had spilled vast amounts of the pellets into Lavaca Bay on the Gulf of Mexico (Formosa agreed to pay $50 million to settle a lawsuit for allegedly violating the Clean Water Act). The charges against the activists, which carried a 15-year prison term, were later dropped.

Such incidents are preventable, campaigners say. “The sinking of the X-Press Pearl—and spill of chemical products and plastic pellets into the seas of Sri Lanka—caused untold damage to marine life and destroyed local livelihoods,” says Hemantha Withanage, director of the Centre for Environmental Justice in Sri Lanka. Consumption of fish, the main protein source for 40 percent of Sri Lankans, has reduced drastically, he says. “It was a huge accident and unfortunately there’s no guidance from the IMO.”

Classifying nurdles as hazardous—as is the case for explosives, flammable liquids, and other environmentally harmful substances—would make them subject to strict conditions for shipping. “They must be stored below deck, in more robust packaging with clear labeling,” says Tanya Cox, marine plastic specialist at the conservation charity Flora & Fauna International. “They would also be subject to disaster-response protocols that can, if implemented in the event of an emergency, prevent the worst environmental impacts.”

But the nurdle can has been kicked down the road, with the IMO secretariat referring the issue to its pollution, prevention and response committee, which meets next year. Campaigners said it was disappointing that the Sri Lankan proposal was not properly discussed. The EIA’s Christina Dixon said: “The attitude of the committee members was extraordinary and showed a callous disregard for plastic pollution from ships as a threat to coastal communities, ecosystems and food security. This is simply unacceptable.”

Meanwhile, the cleanup continues in Sri Lanka. Some of the 470 turtles, 46 dolphins and eight whales washing ashore have had nurdles in their bodies, says Withanage. While there is no proof the nurdles were responsible, he says: “I’ve seen some of the dolphins and they had plastic particles inside. There are 20,000 families who have had to stop fishing.

“The fishermen say when they dip [themselves] into the water, the pellets get into their ears. It’s affected tourism, everything.”

COVID uncertainty

Omicron plunges travel industry back into COVID uncertainty

Airlines worry that new variant will end the short-lived industry revival.

BY MARI ECCLES AND HANS VON DER BURCHARD

Just a few weeks ago, it seemed like the worst was over.

The U.S. had finally lifted its 19-month-long travel ban on Europe, and the revival of lucrative transatlantic routes promised to buoy an industry that's estimated to have lost $6 trillion since the start of the pandemic. British Airways chief Sean Doyle called it a “moment to celebrate.”

But that optimism may turn out to be premature. The arrival of the coronavirus Omicron variant, first detected in South Africa, is causing countries to rush out new travel restrictions.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called on EU countries to suspend all air travel from variant-hit countries. At the time of the announcement, that meant restricting flights from six southern African nations. 

As clusters of Omicron cases have started to appear across the bloc — including Belgium, the Netherlands, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Germany and the Czech Republic, as well as the U.K. — countries are taking things a few steps further.

Poland, for example, has announced a 14-day quarantine for anyone coming from outside the EU’s visa-free Schengen zone. Spain has tightened its travel rules, requiring vaccinations for people coming from the U.K.

Switzerland, meanwhile, has introduced a 10-day quarantine and negative PCR test requirement for non-Swiss nationals or residents traveling from countries including Belgium, the Netherlands, the U.K. and the Czech Republic.

The British government has moved to reintroduce PCR tests and self-isolation requirements for all visitors from abroad (except for those traveling from Ireland). And further afield, Israel and Japan have effectively closed their borders.

Airlines are watching with foreboding as countries batten down the hatches.

International Air Transport Association chief Willie Walsh accused governments of responding to the new variant — about which much still remains unknown — in “emergency mode.”

“As quickly as possible we must use the experience of the last two years to move to a coordinated data-driven approach that finds safe alternatives to border closures and quarantine,” he said.

Airlines for Europe (A4E) said new variants should be monitored but border closures should be a "measure of last resort." Travelers could find alternative routes to enter the EU via non-EU hubs, where the same standards of testing may not apply, the lobby group suggested.

Before news of the variant sent governments into a tailspin, air traffic had been picking up.

In August, the number of commercial flights in the EU increased by 48 percent compared with August of last year. The industry put that down to the introduction of the EU’s digital COVID certificate — the bloc-wide pass that logs a passenger’s vaccinations, tests or recovery status, which helped streamline rules that had previously varied among countries and even regions.

Vaccine validity

The chaos caused by Omicron comes as the EU is already eyeing stricter travel measures to keep in check a dramatic coronavirus resurgence across the bloc.

Portugal, for example, was clamping down on travel before Omicron, announcing it would require anyone flying into the country to show a negative test before boarding, with airlines facing steep fines for failing to check.

Last week, the Commission updated its travel guidelines, recommending that EU vaccine certificates for travel only be considered valid for nine months. It also suggested tying travel rules within the EU to passengers’ own personal health risk, rather than their country of departure.

The plan is supposed to push the vaccine-hesitant to get jabbed and encourage the double-dosed to take a booster shot.

It’s still up to national governments to decide if they want to back the proposals; two national officials told POLITICO that countries are split on whether to support the nine-month validity period or give themselves more time to roll out boosters and push to extend it to 12 months.

A4E called the Commission proposal “premature," saying it "may put people’s ability to travel at risk,” given many EU countries have yet to make third doses available to most of their adult populations.

Figures from Our World in Data suggest that very few Europeans have received booster shots, though some countries, including Belgium, are now rushing out booster programs. The U.K. announced on Monday it would make boosters available for all adults.

The Omicron variant may have highlighted the urgency of pushing ahead with vaccination campaigns, but it's also highlighting the wildly different approaches taken by EU countries.

At a press briefing on Monday, Commission spokesperson Eric Mamer urged member countries to stick with the EU's COVID certificate, “in particular when it comes to not imposing undue barriers to travel for those who either have been fully vaccinated, have a PCR test or can show that they have recovered from COVID."

Still, with experts warning it's too early to know how effective current vaccines will be against the new variant — and some countries closing their borders once again — the travel industry says it's fearful of what lies ahead.

Eric Drésin, secretary-general of the European Travel Agents' and Tour Operators' Associations, said “it’s ​​essential to give scientists the time to assess and explain the risks of Omicron,” but urged EU governments to do a better job coordinating restrictions to avoid crippling the travel industry just as it was recovering.

Inflation surges..........

Eurozone inflation surges to record high of 4.9 percent

A major driver is energy prices, which jumped 27 percent.

BY JOHANNA TREECK

Inflation in the eurozone surged to the highest level since the introduction of the common currency, clocking in at more than twice the European Central Bank’s 2 percent target, the EU statistics agency reported Tuesday.

Euro area annual inflation is expected to hit 4.9 percent in November, up from 4.1 percent in October according to a flash estimate from Eurostat. That's well above what most analysts had expected.  

A major driver of the jump was energy prices, which surged 27 percent.

The ECB has argued that high inflation pressures are largely driven by temporary factors and should start to ease as soon as next month before falling back below the central bank’s target in the coming years.

ECB President Christine Lagarde has maintained that the long lag for monetary policy to take effect means it would do more harm than good to tighten monetary policy now.

"We would cause unemployment and high adjustment costs and would nonetheless not have countered the current high level of inflation," she said in a recent interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. "I would find that wrong."

What many economists are becoming more concerned about is core inflation, which excludes volatile factors like food and energy prices. It jumped to 2.6 percent from 2 percent, suggesting that inflation may in fact come down more slowly. This development has offered fodder for the camp on the ECB Governing Council that fears inflation may prove more persistent than assumed.

"Our baseline is that inflation will be below 2 percent at the end of our forecasting period," Governing Council member Boštjan Vasle told POLITICO in an interview. "But the likelihood that it will stay above 2 percent is increasing."

At least for the near term, the ECB is set to upwardly revise its inflation projections at its December policy meeting. Lagarde has also promised a decision on the future of the central bank’s crisis asset purchase program and possible hints on quantitative easing beyond the pandemic.  

ECB official’s criminal immunity

EU court decision waives ECB official’s criminal immunity

Ilmārs Rimšēvičs of Latvia faces accusations of accepting bribes.

BY JOHANNA TREECK

European Central Bank Governing Council members do not enjoy criminal immunity for possible wrongdoings committed outside their central-banking duties, the European Court of Justice said Tuesday.

As a result, Ilmārs Rimšēvičs, former president of the Bank of Latvia, had his immunity as a member of the ECB’s Governing Council waived. Rimšēvičs faces accusations of accepting bribes. The former central bank chief denies the allegations.

The Court rules that “where a criminal authority finds” that the conduct under investigation was not committed in the official capacity of a central bank governor, “proceedings against him or her may be continued since immunity from legal proceedings does not apply."

The statement added that "acts of fraud, corruption or money laundering are thus not carried out by such a governor in his or her official capacity."

The ruling will be monitored particularly closely in Slovakia, where in October central bank governor Peter Kazimir was charged with bribery. Kazimir denies the charges.

The ECB declined to comment on the ruling.

Data sovereignty

China threatens data sovereignty, says Britain’s spy chief

Richard Moore says UK has ‘taken measures’ to defend against Beijing danger.

BY THIBAULT SPIRLET

Britain's spy chief on Tuesday warned of the threat to data sovereignty posed by China's "debt traps and data traps."

Richard Moore, boss of Britain's foreign intelligence agency MI6, said on BBC Radio 4's Today program that Beijing is "trying to use influence through its economic policies to try and sometimes, I think, get people on the hook."

On the subject of data, Moore added, "If you allow another country to gain access to really critical data about your society, over time that will erode your sovereignty, you no longer have control over that data." He said the U.K. had taken "measures" to defend against the danger.

The warnings come ahead of Moore's first major public speech since becoming head of MI6. In the speech, Moore will say it is important for him to address digital issues in a modern democracy, as technological threats are "growing exponentially."

On the chaotic withdrawal of allied Western troops from Afghanistan in August, Moore acknowledged intelligence agencies didn't accurately assess the speed at which the Taliban would seize control of Kabul. But he refused to describe it as an "intelligence failure."

Moore said he was now concerned that the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan will be a "morale boost for extremists around the world, and indeed for those sitting in the capitals in Beijing, Tehran, and Moscow."

On Russia, Moore said he sees it as an "acute threat" and the Ukraine border situation bears "very careful watching."

Next big test....

Vaccines vs. Omicron: The next big test in the coronavirus pandemic

Scientists are gathering evidence on whether existing vaccines will work, while drugmakers prepare to tailor-make new jabs.

BY HELEN COLLIS

As European countries scramble to contain the spread of a new coronavirus variant, named Omicron, attention is turning to whether existing vaccines will work against it — and whether new jabs will be needed.

One reason why scientists in South Africa raised the alert about the variant that was first identified there was due to the significant number of mutations to the part of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that many of the vaccines target.

With investigations underway into whether the vaccines remain effective, governments and public health bodies are urging citizens to maximize their protection by getting booster shots, if they are eligible, and especially for those who have not yet come forward to receive a first course.

To stop the potential spread of any new variant, “it is imperative we close the immunization gap,” Andrea Ammon, director of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said in a statement, adding that this included making booster shots available for all adults and prioritizing those over the age of 40.

Vaccine makers are meanwhile getting ready to tailor-make new jabs against the Omicron variant, should that be necessary, based on their existing technologies that have proven effective against the original strain of the virus.

Are vaccines protective?

The extent to which existing vaccines are protective against Omicron is under investigation but, according to U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, there are early signs that they may not be effective in preventing transmission.

“It does appear that Omicron spreads very rapidly and can be spread between people who are double-vaccinated,” he said on Saturday.

Scientists say that, in theory, Omicron may be more able to evade the protection offered by vaccines than other variants.

That’s because vaccines in use in Europe induce a multitude of antibodies to attack sites on a part of the virus known as the spike protein, explained Wendy Barclay, a respiratory virus expert from Imperial College London.

While other variants like Alpha and Delta also have mutations to these so-called antigenic sites of the protein — other sites on the spike protein have not changed and so vaccines have remained effective.

“What's a little bit different about this variant is that it has so many changes across spike that nearly all of the antigenic sites that we know about are changed on this virus,” Barclay told journalists at a briefing.

That suggests that antibodies induced by the vaccines “will be compromised in their ability to neutralize the virus,” she said, while stressing that more research was needed to prove this theory.

Meanwhile, early indications from South Africa offer a glimmer of hope.

During a press conference on Monday, Waasila Jassat, public health specialist at South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), said there has been a sharp increase in hospital admissions in the northern region in Guateng Province, according to tweets from SA Government News.

However, most hospital admissions are in unvaccinated people, Jassat said, adding that the highest risk of hospital admissions was among older groups with underlying health conditions.

Michelle Groome, head of the division of public health surveillance and response at NICD, said cases were highest among younger people, with ages 10 to 24 hardest hit, while there were also cases among 25-to-29-year-olds.

“What we are seeing clinically in South Africa … is extremely mild,” Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association, told Andrew Marr on the BBC on Sunday.

Symptoms may have been missed earlier in South Africa and Europe, she said, because they differ slightly from Delta: extreme tiredness, aches and pains, headache and a scratchy throat. “No cough and no loss of smell or taste,” she said.

In South Africa, around 35 percent of the population has been vaccinated, and 2.9 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported to date in the country of nearly 60 million, although the true number may be much higher.

Biotech mobilizes

While evidence is generated on vaccine efficacy against Omicron, vaccine makers have been quick to respond.

John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, which co-developed an adenovirus vaccine with AstraZeneca, said the company has already developed a vaccine that targets the Beta coronavirus strain, which was also first identified in South Africa and known as B.1.351.

This strain dodged much of the protection offered by the original Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine — to the extent that South Africa called off its immunization campaign with the jab, switching to vaccines from Johnson & Johnson and BioNTech/Pfizer.

Bell told Times Radio that Beta “is the closest strain” to the one now rapidly spreading in South Africa, “so it'll be interesting to see how that performs” against Omicron. Scientists have been working on it for six months and will finish their immunogenicity studies — needed by regulators to assess whether to approve it — next week.

If Oxford and AstraZeneca need to start from scratch to develop a new vaccine against Omicron, “it'll probably take a little bit longer than the mRNA vaccines,” he said, estimating this would take four to six months.

Germany's BioNTech and U.S. partner Pfizer have been working for months on a process to quickly make a new-variant COVID-19 vaccine and scale up production if needed, BioNTech said in a statement.

The companies could “adapt the mRNA vaccine within six weeks and ship initial batches within 100 days in the event of an escape variant,” BioNTech said. They have already developed vaccines against Alpha and Delta variants and have begun clinical trials with these jabs to collect safety and tolerability data that can be provided to regulators.

Moderna, whose vaccine uses similar mRNA technology to the BioNTech/Pfizer jab, said it is investigating several strategies to protect against Omicron.

The U.S. biotech is testing whether people given a higher dose of its booster — the same dose as the primary course — have better protection against Omicron, by analyzing samples in the lab.

It also has two new booster vaccines in development. The first targets Beta and the second targets both Beta and Delta variants. Full and half doses of both are in clinical trials and the company is “rapidly" expanding testing of blood samples to analyze the antibody response to Omicron.

In addition, an Omicron-specific booster is being developed, which could be ready for clinical testing in 60 to 90 days, the company said.

Meanwhile, Novavax, whose protein-based vaccine has not yet been authorized for use, has also begun the development of a new recombinant spike protein vaccine based on the known genetic sequence of B.1.1.529. It will be ready to start testing and manufacturing “within the next few weeks,” the company said in a statement.

In addition, Novavax said trials have shown its whole spike protein vaccine may provide protection against new variants when used as a booster, as demonstrated against Alpha, Delta and Beta in a Phase 2 study. However, it has not yet filed for a license as a booster.

A decision is expected “within weeks” in the EU and also imminently in the U.K. on its vaccine, which is currently authorized in Indonesia.

Controversy worsens....

Islamophobia controversy worsens after Boebert calls Omar

The Minnesota progressive ended her phone conversation with the Colorado conservative after both demanded public apologies — exacerbating already rock-bottom relations in the House.

By HEATHER CAYGLE, SARAH FERRIS and OLIVIA BEAVERS

The Islamophobia controversy engulfing Rep. Lauren Boebert escalated to a full boil Monday after the Colorado Republican went after Rep. Ilhan Omar in a video following a tense phone call between the two.

Boebert claimed in a video that she sought to deescalate tensions with Omar after a video circulated on social media last week of the conservative lawmaker making anti-Muslim remarks, calling Omar a member of the “jihad squad” and saying the Minnesota Democrat was safe to ride with in a Capitol elevator so long as she wasn’t wearing a backpack.

When Boebert called Omar on Monday, the firebrand freshman said she attempted to explain that she had not meant to impugn Omar's religion — but the exchange ended with the Democrat continuing to insist on public contrition, to which Boebert herself replied with an insistence on a public apology. The back-and-forth will only ratchet up the friction between the two parties ahead of the House’s return from Thanksgiving break on Tuesday.

It’s the second time this month that a GOP lawmaker has faced blowback for offensive comments about a Democratic colleague. Just before Thanksgiving, House Democrats moved swiftly to punish Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) after he posted an anime video depicting the killing of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.); Gosar was censured and stripped of his committees.

This time, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her leadership team sharply condemned Boebert’s comments but demanded that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy be the one to act against the Coloradan. Omar echoed that sentiment in her own statement on Monday afternoon.

"This is not about one hateful statement or one politician; it is about a party that has mainstreamed bigotry and hatred,” Omar wrote in a statement released after her call with Boebert. “It is time for Republican Leader McCarthy to actually hold his party accountable.”

A spokesperson for McCarthy did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Boebert said in her video, posted to Instagram, that she asked Omar to make a public apology “for her anti-American, anti-Semitic, anti-police rhetoric.” Omar has criticized the Israeli government in her advocacy for Palestinian rights, running afoul of some in her own party in the past, and supported police reform efforts following law enforcement killings of men and women of color. After the two went back and forth, Omar ended the call.

The episode will put further pressure on McCarthy, who has faced a series of controversies over divisive rhetoric within his ranks. House Republicans would far prefer to focus on their political advantages over Democrats and the Biden administration ahead of the upcoming midterms, rather than tamping down polarizing moments orchestrated by their own members.

It is unclear what, if anything, Democratic leaders will do to address Boebert’s comments beyond the public condemnation they released late last week. Multiple senior Democrats described the situation as fluid, noting that Pelosi and her leadership team won’t even meet until late Tuesday, when the House returns.

In addition, several Democrats privately said they do not want to be lured into a “trap” by Republicans — forced to police every objectionable statement made by GOP lawmakers when McCarthy and other party leaders won’t do anything to rein in their own.

Those Democrats, speaking on condition of anonymity to describe internal conversations, said the situation with Boebert is also different from Gosar, who posted an animated video of himself killing his colleague and then refused to apologize for it.

Omar’s office argued that GOP leaders have a responsibility to address Boebert’s pattern of “Islamophobic hate speech,” citing other examples of offensive language used against the Minnesota Democrat earlier this year. That includes multiple instances where Boebert has falsely described Omar as an advocate “for state-sponsored terrorism,” declaring her an “honorary member of Hamas” who is a “terrorist sympathizer.”

This month also is not the first time that Boebert has described Omar as part of the “jihad squad.” She also used the term at a campaign event in New York in September.

Faces appeals court

Trump effort to stymie Jan. 6 committee faces appeals court reckoning

The former president’s lawsuit to shield his White House records faces a crucial review Tuesday.

By KYLE CHENEY and JOSH GERSTEIN

Three federal appeals judges are set to hear arguments Tuesday in a case that could determine whether Jan. 6 investigators can piece together Donald Trump’s mindset and movements as a mob of his supporters attacked the Capitol.

D.C. Circuit Judges Ketanji Brown Jackson, Patricia Millett and Robert Wilkins are wading into a dispute over Trump’s lawsuit against the Jan. 6 select committee and the National Archives, the custodian of his White House records. House investigators are attempting to obtain a voluminous batch of documents concerning Trump’s meetings, call records and decisions in the weeks preceding the riot — documents they say are essential both to understanding how Trump tried to subvert the 2020 election and to preventing new threats to the transfer of power.

“Future elections are imminent and there could be future attacks on democracy rooted in conduct occurring well before the election,” House counsel Douglas Letter wrote in an appeals court brief filed on behalf of the committee last week.

Trump, though, has tried to assert executive privilege over at least 750 sensitive pages, contending that although he’s a former president, he maintains the power to shield his own records. Those documents include daily presidential diaries, schedules, appointment information, drafts of speeches, correspondence, handwritten notes, call logs, talking points, memoranda and email chains, according to the National Archives.

The files at issue are drawn from former Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, former adviser Stephen Miller, former deputy White House Counsel Patrick Philbin and former Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany, among other top Trump aides. The National Archives has identified the documents in periodic batches since early September and expects to produce additional tranches in the coming months. Trump has made at least four assertions of executive privilege, most recently on Nov. 15, in a bid to prevent portions of those records from going to House investigators.

Revealing the pages, Trump’s attorneys argue, would erode the ability of all future presidents to protect the sanctity of private discussions with aides and expose them to “harassment” by opposition-party Congresses.

“Every Congress will point to some unprecedented thing about ‘this President’ to justify a request for his presidential records,” Trump lawyers Justin Clark and Jesse Binnall wrote in a brief filed with the appeals court last week.

A district court judge has already rejected that argument.

Although the Supreme Court has ruled that former presidents retain an unquantified degree of control over their old records, there is no clear legal precedent granting them power to override the sitting president’s decision to release them to Congress.

Biden, in the current dispute, has declined to assert executive privilege over the hundreds of pages in question, save for a small number of documents the House agreed not to seek for the time being. U.S. District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan determined that overruling the current president at a former president’s behest would upset the balance of power between the executive and legislative branches.

“Presidents are not kings and plaintiff is not president,” wrote Chutkan, an appointee of former President Barack Obama.

Chutkan ruled that only the sitting president is suited to determine how to protect the institution and that a former president’s interest in his own documents can’t override the incumbent. That’s especially true in a case when Congress and the sitting president are in agreement, a rarity in modern disputes over access to documents, she wrote.

All three judges on the panel were appointed by Democratic presidents. Jackson is Biden’s only appointment so far to the powerful D.C. circuit court, while Millett and Wilkins were appointed by Obama.

If the panel agrees with Chutkan’s decision, it could deal a fatal blow to Trump’s push to maintain the secrecy of his pre-Jan. 6 maneuvers. Though he would likely appeal to the full bench of the appeals court or to the Supreme Court, a ruling against him is bound to spark an urgent race by the committee to obtain the documents and fight any efforts to stay the ruling during an appeal.

The most memorable executive privilege fight involving a former president in the modern era involved Richard Nixon’s efforts to maintain control over his White House records in the wake of his 1974 resignation due to the Watergate scandal. The Supreme Court ruled that Nixon, as a former president, still retained a degree of control over his White House’s tapes and documents, but the high court’s decision didn’t flesh out the details.

That ruling helped prompt Congress to pass the Presidential Records Act, which governs the handling of White House documents after presidents leave office. While Trump’s attorneys predict catastrophe if Congress gets access to his White House records, under that federal law passed in 1978, most White House records of former presidents become eligible for release to the public 12 years after the president in question leaves office.

Until that time, the law permits former presidents to request that the sitting president — in this case Biden — assert executive privilege on their behalf to block release. If the incumbent refuses, the former president may seek a court order blocking the release of his documents. But in the four decades since, no sitting president has ever disagreed with a former president’s assertion of privilege, meaning the issue has never been litigated until now.

Justice Department lawyers arguing on behalf of the National Archives have forcefully backed the House’s position, noting that presidents on numerous occasions have willingly waived executive privilege to support investigations of national significance.

That includes Nixon in 1973 permitting aides to testify to Watergate investigators, former President Ronald Reagan authorizing testimony in the Iran-Contra affair and Trump himself declining to block former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony to Congress or the release of special counsel Robert Mueller’s report.

Often sitting presidents negotiate a resolution on a former president’s behalf, but not all such disputes have ended with accommodations. In 1953, former President Harry Truman cited executive privilege in refusing a subpoena to testify before the House Un-American Activities Committee. No action was taken against him.

“It is just as important to the independence of the Executive Branch that the actions of the president should not be subjected to questioning by the Congress after he has completed his term of office as that his actions should not be questioned while he is serving as president,” Truman said at the time, an anecdote Trump and his allies have cited in earlier legal briefs. “In either case, the office would be dominated by the Congress and the presidency might become a mere appendage of Congress.”

Justice Departments of both parties have adopted Truman’s thinking that current and former presidents — and their top aides — are immune from compelled testimony to Congress. But Truman’s argument about the rights of a former president have found little resonance in subsequent court rulings.

Abortion fight

‘A post-Roe strategy’: The next phase of the abortion fight has already begun

“We’ve had a post-Roe strategy for the last 15 years,” said Kristan Hawkins, the president of the anti-abortion group Students for Life of America. “Now is when the rubber will meet the road.”

By ALICE MIRANDA OLLSTEIN

The Supreme Court on Wednesday will consider the half-century-old legal precedent guaranteeing the right to abortion. And while a decision isn’t expected to come until well into next year, activists on both sides of the fight are already mobilizing for a new reality, one where people in half the country must either leave their state to seek an abortion or surreptitiously end a pregnancy on their own.

The expectation from all corners is that the conservative supermajority of justices would not have agreed to consider a Mississippi law prohibiting abortion after 15 weeks unless they were ready to significantly pare down or completely overturn Roe v. Wade.

That’s set off an intense ground game, one which could radically reshape reproductive rights for millions of people.

Abortion rights groups are amassing millions in donations, recruiting volunteers to help people travel across state lines for the procedure, and developing a grey market to deliver abortion pills straight to patients’ doorsteps — even in states that have banned them.

Clinics in Democratic-controlled states are also staffing up, anticipating a flood of new patients from Republican-led states, which have been tightening access for years and are likely to waste little time in fully banning the procedure should Roe fall.

Conservative groups are equally busy: drafting model legislation that will prohibit abortion, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars lobbying lawmakers to enact new bans, and sending an army of door-to-door canvassers to key swing states to blunt any political backlash the decision could cause.

“We’ve had a post-Roe strategy for the last 15 years,” said Kristan Hawkins, the president of the group anti-abortion group Students for Life of America. “Now is when the rubber will meet the road.”

While a ruling limiting or overturning Roe v. Wade wouldn’t outlaw the procedure nationwide, it would further fray the country’s current patchwork of access. A dozen states have “trigger” laws that will automatically prohibit abortion should the court overturn the 50-year old precedent, while other conservative-led states are expected to move swiftly to ban abortion in the wake of such a ruling. A smaller group of progressive states have abortion rights protected in state law.

But many states neither ban nor protect the procedure and a final ruling, expected to come just a few months ahead of the midterms, could shape the 2022 election, as both sides jockey for votes with the understanding that the right to an abortion may be determined by which party prevails.

“Dozens of states are likely or certain to ban abortion if Roe falls. Do people in those states know that?” asked Kristin Ford with NARAL, which is supporting candidates who back abortion rights. “How are we communicating the gravity and significance of this moment to voters and reminding them who is to blame — who confirmed these justices and how do we hold those elected officials to account?”

Texas, which has had a near-total abortion ban in place for the last three months that the Supreme Court has allowed to stand, offers a preview of what the nation could look life if Roe falls: people with means traveling across state and national borders or going outside the law to terminate a pregnancy while those unable or unwilling to do so carry unwanted pregnancies to term.

And in the five states that have just one remaining clinic, the right to an abortion may still exist on paper, but access is so limited that organizers on the ground say they’ve been readying for a “post-Roe scenario” for years.

“We still have a clinic, but it’s just one, they can only do procedures a few times a week, and they have to fly all their doctors in from out of state,” said Michelle Colón, the executive director of the Mississippi-based group SHERO, which stands for Sisters Helping Every Woman Rise and Organize. “They can’t even see everyone who needs an abortion in Mississippi, let alone serve people coming in from Alabama, Louisiana and other neighboring states.”

SHERO is part of a loose network of abortion rights groups bracing for an end to Roe and scrambling to get information, medication and resources into the hands of people in states most likely to prohibit abortions. These groups are distributing emergency contraception and offering workshops on how to use it, recruiting volunteers to drive patients to clinics in other states, and fundraising to cover the cost of travel, housing and childcare — as well as the cost of the procedure itself, which is rarely covered by insurance when patients go out of state.

Abortion funds around the country — the largely volunteer-run non-profits that field calls from people who can’t afford the procedure or the travel — dispensed $9 million in 2020, up from $4 million in 2018, according to the National Network of Abortion Funds. The vast majority of the money comes from individual small donations, with a fraction coming from charitable foundations. But the groups fear they won’t have nearly enough to meet the demand if Roe is significantly curtailed or reversed.

Meanwhile, clinics in states with fewer restrictions on abortion — such as Illinois and California — are adding staff and hours while petitioning lawmakers to make the procedure even more accessible. Advocates in California are pushing for the state’s Medicaid program to more easily reimburse providers for treating patients from out of state, while groups in Michigan are looking at a ballot initiative to ensure access to abortion pills.

Their prep work was put to the test in September when the Supreme Court allowed Texas’ six-week ban to take effect, and in some parts of the country, clinics’ limited resources are now nearly overwhelmed.

“Prior to Texas, our system was already taxed,” said Colleen McNicholas, the chief medical officer of one of Planned Parenthood’s Midwest affiliates, which operates a clinic on the Illinois-Missouri border and serves patients from many surrounding states. “We are now on the verge of not being able to uphold it.”

Anti-abortion groups are also working to shape a post-Roe world.

Students for Life, an anti-abortion group that focuses primarily on college campuses, is lobbying more than 30 state legislatures to enact abortion restrictions. The organization also recently launched a $5 million dollar campaign in 20 cities — from Jackson, Mississippi to Tacoma, Washington — to have volunteers and staff knock on more than 77,000 doors, put up billboards, phone bank and run digital ads to convince people to oppose abortion.

And Americans United for Life, one of the largest anti-abortion lobbying groups, plans to unveil a new database this January, when state legislatures go back into session. The resource will explain current state law and what steps would be needed to ban abortion if Roe is reversed, Katie Glenn, the group’s government affairs counsel, told POLITICO.

“We’re also developing model bills we think are constitutionally sound and that make sure the woman is not penalized — that’s in every piece of legislation we’re working on,” she said.

Anti-abortion groups, anticipating an increase in unwanted pregnancies, are also promoting faith-based crisis pregnancy centers, petitioning college campuses to provide better housing and services for pregnant and parenting students, and lobbying state governments to allocate funds for parenting classes, adoption services and other anticipated needs.

“We realize this will mean there will be women who need more resources and help and we want to step up and provide that,” Glenn said. “This is the kind of thinking we’re pushing all states to do.”

Another battlefront is emerging over abortion pills. Students for Life, along with several other groups, are working with Republicans in Congress — primarily Reps. Bob Good (R-Va.) and Chip Roy (R-Texas) — to ban online sales of abortion pills and distribution on college campuses.

Eight red states have already enacted restrictions on the pills in anticipation of the Biden administration easing federal restrictions on the drug and allowing it to be prescribed via telemedicine and mailed to homes — a decision the FDA will make later this month. And 16 other Republican-controlled states have introduced bills to limit access.

“Our post-Roe strategy is mainly an offensive strategy,” Hawkins told POLITICO. “But our defensive strategy is fighting chemical abortion.”

Progressive groups have also zeroed in on abortion pills, which they’re counting on to be one of main ways people who live in states that may prohibit surgical abortions can still terminate a pregnancy if Roe falls. Colón described the medication as a key differentiator from the pre-Roe era when many people were forced to turn to unlicensed providers for risky procedures.

“So much of our mandate as a movement fighting for reproductive freedom right now is helping people understand what medication abortion care is, how it works and how to access it,” said NARAL’s Ford.

The two-drug regimen is far cheaper than a surgical abortion, can be ordered online and taken at home and carries a less than half-a-percent risk of major complications.

Yet the pills can only be taken during the first 10 weeks of pregnancy. By the time a person realizes they are pregnant and finds out how to obtain them, it may be too late. Abortion rights groups also worry misinformation and fear will prevent people from using the pills or deter them from seeking follow-up care if needed, particularly as more states move to ban them.

“I can’t stress enough that states are criminalizing this — putting people in jail who self-manage their abortions and going after those who help them do so,” Colón said. “If Roe is overturned, I expect that will only get worse.”

Amazon’s first-ever U.S. union??????

Amazon ordered to hold new union election at Alabama facility

The new election is the latest turn in the union’s fight to form Amazon’s first-ever U.S. union.

By REBECCA RAINEY

A federal labor relations official has ordered a second union election at an Amazon facility in Bessemer, Ala., after finding that the tech giant interfered and violated workers’ labor rights during a high-profile, but unsuccessful, union drive earlier this year.

The decision by National Labor Relations Board Region 10 Director Lisa Henderson largely rests on the e-commerce giant's decision to install a mailbox in front of the fulfillment center to collect employees' mail-in ballots for the union election.

"By causing the Postal Service to install a cluster mailbox unit, communicating and encouraging employees to cast their ballots using the mailbox, wrapping the mailbox with its slogan, and placing the mailbox at a location where employees could reasonably believe they were being surveilled, the Employer engaged in objectionable conduct that warrants setting aside the election," Henderson wrote in the order Monday directing a new election.

"The Employer’s flagrant disregard for the Board’s typical mail-ballot procedure compromised the authority of the Board and made a free and fair election impossible," Henderson said.

The new election is the latest turn in the union’s fight to form Amazon’s first-ever U.S. union.

Workers at the facility overwhelmingly voted — 1,798 to 738 — against joining the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union in April.

But, after the union filed dozens of objections to the election results and a multi-week hearing overseen by the NLRB’s Atlanta regional office, an NLRB hearing officer recommended in August that the board conduct a new election.

Kerstin Meyers, the hearing officer for the NLRB's Region 10 office, found that Amazon interfered with the "conditions necessary to conduct a fair election" by installing the mailbox and offering employees anti-union badges and signs.

The decision Henderson issued Monday affirmed that recommendation and outlined directions for the new election.

The union lauded the move, saying it confirmed the objections they raised about Amazon's behavior throughout the union drive.

“Amazon’s intimidation and interference prevented workers from having a fair say in whether they wanted a union in their workplace — and as the Regional Director has indicated, that is both unacceptable and illegal,” Stuart Appelbaum, president of the union, said in a statement. “Amazon workers deserve to have a voice at work, which can only come from a union.”

Amazon did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Slow job growth

Fed’s Powell warns Omicron could slow job growth, extend supply snarls

“Greater concerns about the virus could reduce people’s willingness to work in person, which would slow progress in the labor market and intensify supply-chain disruptions,” Powell said in his statement.

By VICTORIA GUIDA

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will tell lawmakers Tuesday that the Omicron variant of the coronavirus could slow the recovery in the U.S. job market and prolong supply chain disruptions that have fueled price spikes.

Powell said in testimony prepared for a Senate Banking Committee hearing that he still expects inflation to cool significantly next year, but he acknowledged that Omicron and other factors have led to more uncertainty about such forecasts.

“Greater concerns about the virus could reduce people’s willingness to work in person, which would slow progress in the labor market and intensify supply-chain disruptions,” he said in his statement.

The remarks by the Fed chief are his first on the state of the economy since the World Health Organization dubbed a new strain of the coronavirus as “a variant of concern,” though much remains unknown about Omicron. They also come just a week after President Joe Biden announced he would nominate Powell for a second term to lead the central bank.

Biden on Monday said he will release a detailed plan to fight the variant this week. The president said his administration will take action against the virus "not with shutdowns or lockdowns, but with more widespread vaccinations, boosters, testing and more."

The new variant has emerged as Fed officials are growing increasingly worried that higher inflation might be taking root, a prospect that may spur them to speed up their efforts to pull back support for the economy, according to minutes of the central bank’s policy meeting earlier this month.

The central bank raises borrowing costs to fight inflation, but higher rates can also hurt growth and job creation in an economy that is still recovering. For now, the Fed believes it’s more important to give the labor market continued support rather than trying to stop a problem — production and shipping delays — that might work itself out.

Still, Powell signaled that inflation was unlikely to drop back down to the Fed’s 2 percent goal in 2022. “It now appears that factors pushing inflation upward will linger well into next year,” he said. Inflation is now running at more than 6 percent.

“We understand that high inflation imposes significant burdens, especially on those less able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation,” he said. “We are committed to our price-stability goal. We will use our tools both to support the economy and a strong labor market and to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched.”

November 29, 2021

So stupid, not even shit would stick....

US intelligence community 'struggled' to brief Trump, CIA study says

By Katie Bo Lillis

The US intelligence community "struggled" to brief President-elect Donald Trump in 2016, achieving "only limited success" in educating and developing a relationship with the incoming president, according to a newly released unclassified history of the transition period published by the CIA's in-house academic center.

Although Trump spent substantial time with briefers on a routine basis throughout the transition period, his free-wheeling style and deep mistrust of the intelligence community presented them with "greater challenges" even than President-elect Richard Nixon, who blamed the CIA for his election loss in 1960 and cut the agency out as president, the history found.

The 40-page narrative — a regular update to a CIA book on briefing presidents-elect written by a retired intelligence officer — offers only a few new details but confirms widely reported press accounts of the former President's approach to intelligence.

It offers an inside window into the intelligence community's struggle to adjust to a president who was "suspicious and insecure about the intelligence process" and, in the words of former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, prone to "fly off on tangents." And it narrates how, at every turn, the relationship between the new President and the intelligence community was undermined by the political imbroglio stemming from the Trump campaign's alleged relationship to Russia.

"Looking back at the Trump transition, one must conclude that the IC achieved only limited success with what had always been its two fundamental goals with the briefing process: to assist the president-elect in becoming familiar with foreign developments and threats affecting US interests with which he would have to deal once in office; and to establish a relationship with the new president and his team in which they understood how they could draw on the Intelligence Community to assist them in discharging their responsibilities," the history recounts.

'The system worked, but it struggled.'

The history reports that during the transition period, Trump was typically "pleasant and courteous" during his briefings, which were given by career intelligence officers drawn from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the CIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the FBI and the Department of State. Together, the team of 14 briefers "comprised the largest and most organizationally diverse group of experts ever deployed for transition briefings of candidates and presidents-elect."

Even later in his presidency, at moments when Trump was publicly expressing deep frustration with the intelligence community, "briefings continued as usual and Trump's demeanor during the sessions remained the same," the history reports.

But as the intelligence community was drawn into the major political dramas surrounding Trump — in particular, the public furor over a dossier compiled by a former British intelligence officer containing purported compromising information on the president-elect that Trump believed had been leaked by the IC — he increasingly lashed out at the intelligence community in public.

According to one previously unreported anecdote, Trump during his second pre-election briefing on Sept. 2, 2016 assured his briefers that "the nasty things he was saying publicly about the intelligence community "don't apply to you."

"Trump was like Nixon, suspicious and insecure about the intelligence process, but unlike Nixon in the way he reacted," the history reads. "Rather than shut the IC out, Trump engaged with it, but attacked it publicly."

Clapper says Trump was 'fact-free'

The history also confirms myriad press accounts of Trump's dissociative style during intelligence briefings.

"The irreconcilable difference, in Clapper's view, was that the IC worked with evidence," according to the history. "Trump 'was fact-free—evidence doesn't cut it with him,'" according to Clapper.

Trump rarely, if at all, read the daily classified briefing book prepared for him during the transition, according to the lead intelligence analyst responsible for briefing the president-elect.

"He touched it. He doesn't really read anything," the history quotes Ted Gistaro, the career CIA analyst tapped for the job. Still, as is typical, the intelligence community tailored the briefing book to the new president, reducing the number and the length of articles. Former Vice President Mike Pence reportedly told briefers to "lean forward on maps." Clapper agreed with Gistaro, saying "Trump doesn't read much; he likes bullets."

Trump would "listen to the key points, discuss them with some care, then lead the discussion to related issues and others further afield," according to the history.

Unlike previous presidents-elect — and some members of his own national security team — Trump himself received no briefings on the CIA's covert action programs until several weeks after his inauguration. The history terms this chain of events "a significant departure from the way briefings were handled during the previous two transitions," but does not offer an explanation.

The history primarily focuses on Trump's time as a candidate and president-elect, and only briefly covers his relations with the intelligence community during his presidency. It reports that after the 2020 election, Trump's "PDB" — his presidential daily briefing — continued only for a time.

Trump typically received the PDB twice a week while in office. He was scheduled to resume receiving the PDB on January 6 after a holiday break, the history reveals. But according to an interview with Beth Sanner, Trump's regular briefer, none were scheduled after the assault on the US Capitol that took place that day.

The history also provides some insight into briefings given to 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, recounting one pre-election intelligence briefing given to Clinton at the FBI field office in White Plains, New York, in August of that year.

"Given all that Clinton was going through related to her handling of personal emails during the campaign, Gistaro regretted that the first question the security officer asked Clinton as she approached the room was whether she had any cell phones with her," the history recounts. "The Secretary very professionally assured the questioner that she had left her cell phones at home.

Message......

Jurors send a powerful message

Opinion by Richard Galant

"I do not pretend to understand the moral universe," wrote anti-slavery Unitarian minister Theodore Parker in a sermon published in 1853. "The arc is a long one, my eye reaches but little ways; I cannot calculate the curve and complete the figure by the experience of sight; I can divine it by conscience. And from what I see I am sure it bends toward justice."

Those words, famously echoed by Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. and former President Barack Obama, come to mind when juries render their verdicts, as they did twice last week in closely watched cases.

In Georgia, a jury found three men guilty of murdering Ahmaud Arbery, a 25-year-old Black man who was chased and shot to death on a suburban street in 2020. In Virginia, a jury ordered extremists, including organizers of the 2017 Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, to pay damages of more than $26 million for the violence that ensued.

The Georgia verdicts "represent a real strike against white supremacy and systemic racism in our criminal legal system," wrote Issac Bailey. The "nearly all-White jury shamed the defense for believing anti-Black racism would help secure an acquittal. It's the kind of decision we should want replicated throughout our system, the kind we should want proclaimed and celebrated, the kind we must hope becomes precedent. If it does, Black jurors would not be continuously discriminated against during jury selection. If it does, racist White men would think twice before arming themselves to take matters into their own hands the way White racist mobs did during the height of the lynching era. If it does, I'll feel less of a need to arm myself to go jogging alone, even in nearly-all White neighborhoods."

Legal analyst Areva Martin credited the "the powerful video evidence and the stellar work of prosecutor Linda Dunikoski" for leaving "in shreds the preposterous citizen's arrest/self-defense contentions that were raised" by the defendants. "Travis McMichael's contradictory statements and testimony, along with the video evidence, demonstrated that he never had a fear of imminent harm and never even told Arbery he was holding him for the police."

"Reasonable fear did not motivate this killing. The prosecution had only to mention the defendant's own words on the 911 call he made. What emergency did he cite? 'There's a Black male running down the street.'"

In Virginia, jurors also rejected the defense's case. The Charlottesville rally, Frida Ghitis wrote, is "seared in the minds of many Americans...The march through the grounds of the University of Virginia looked and sounded like something out of 1930s Nazi Germany, with tiki torches and shouts of 'Jews will not replace us,' 'Blood and soil,' and stiff-armed Nazi-style salutes."

"The moment seemed to confirm our worst fears. The day after that spine-chilling march, violent clashes between racists and anti-racists turned deadly when one of the defendants rammed his car into a crowd of counter protesters, killing one and injuring several of the people now turned plaintiffs in this lawsuit."

People around the world "need to hear the message of accountability this jury has sent," Ghitis observed.

Troubling mutations....

The Omicron variant has a number of troubling mutations. Here's what we know about them so far

Maggie Fox

Omicron, the newest coronavirus variant, is also the quickest to be labeled a "variant of concern" by the World Health Organization (WHO) because of its seemingly fast spread in South Africa and its many troubling mutations.

The first sample of the Omicron or B.1.1.529 lineage was taken November 9, according to WHO. It got noticed because of a surge of cases in South Africa.

"This new variant ... seems to spread very quick!" Tulio de Oliveira, director of South Africa's Center for Epidemic Response & Innovation, and a genetics researcher at Stellenbosch University, said on Twitter.

Also, genetic sequencing showed it carried a large number of troubling mutations on the spike protein -- the knoblike structure on the surface of the virus that it uses to grapple onto the cells it infects.
  • Some of those mutations were already recognized from other variants and were known to make them more dangerous, including one called E484K that can make the virus less recognizable to some antibodies -- immune system proteins that are a frontline defense against infection and that form the basis of monoclonal antibody treatments.
  • It also carries a mutation called N501Y, which gave both the Alpha and Gamma variants their increased transmissibility. Just last week, Scott Weaver of the University of Texas Medical Branch and colleagues reported in the journal Nature that this particular mutation made the virus better at replicating in the upper airway -- think in the nose and throat -- and likely makes it more likely to spread when people breathe, sneeze and cough.
  • Like Delta, Omicron also carries a mutation called D614G, which appears to help the virus better attach to the cells it infects.
"The number of mutations per se does not mean that the new variant will cause any problems; although it may make it more likely to look different to the immune system," Dr. Peter English, former chair of the British Medical Association's Public Health Medicine Committee, said in a statement.

What worries scientists is the number of mutations affecting the spike protein. That's because most of the leading vaccines target the spike protein. Vaccines made by Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca and other companies all use just small pieces or genetic sequences of the virus and not whole virus, and all of them use bits of the spike protein to elicit immunity. So a change in the spike protein that made it less recognizable to immune system proteins and cells stimulated by a vaccine would be a problem.

So far, there's no evidence this has happened but there is no way of knowing by looking at the mutations alone. Researchers will have to wait and see if more breakthrough infections are caused by Omicron than by other variants.

Sad but wonderful....

Tony Bennett, 95, leaves his heart onstage in a moving final concert with Lady Gaga

By Catherine E. Shoichet

Tony Bennett won over generations of fans crooning "I Left My Heart in San Francisco." And on his 95th birthday, the beloved singer left his heart on the stage of Radio City Music Hall.

Six months after Bennett and his family revealed he is suffering from Alzheimer's, Bennett sang alongside Lady Gaga before sold-out crowds in a two-concert series in early August billed as his final New York performances.

Now the rest of the world has a chance to take in the moving August 3 show in a TV special, "One Last Time: An Evening With Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga," which aired Sunday on CBS.

In addition to his signature song, Bennett performed standards like "Fly Me to the Moon" and "Steppin' Out With My Baby" and duets with Lady Gaga including "Love For Sale" and "Anything Goes."

His family members have said sometimes Bennett doesn't know where he is and what is happening around him. But onstage in the TV special, the legendary performer didn't miss a beat.

Belting out "New York, New York" before Bennett took the stage, Lady Gaga teared up when she paused to talk about him.

"He's my friend. He's my musical companion. And he's the greatest singer in the whole world. And I'm counting on you, New York, to make him smile. So you better cheer. You better yell. You better laugh. You better cry. You better give your soul."

The Radio City Music Hall audience held up its end of the bargain. Bennett got his first standing ovation before even singing a note -- and racked up at least a dozen more throughout the night.

In "Fly Me to the Moon," when he crooned the line, "Let me sing forever more," the audience erupted in cheers. At one point the camera panned to an audience member shouting, "We love you!"

Bennett, whose singing career spans eight decades, is no stranger to performing for throngs of adoring fans. Still, before the concert, family members told "60 Minutes" they weren't sure what would happen during the show.

But wife Susan Benedetto said that once she saw him onstage that night, his eyes twinkling and arms outstretched toward the crowd, she knew everything would be alright.

"He became himself. He just turned on. It was like a light switch," she told "60 Minutes" in a segment that aired last month.

That's because music and performing are so ingrained in the singer, according to Bennett's neurologist, Dr. Gayatri Devi.

"People respond differently based on their strengths. In Tony's case, it's his musical memory his ability to be a performer. Those are an innate and hardwired part of his brain," Devi said on "60 Minutes." "So even though he doesn't know what the day might be, or where his apartment is, he still can sing the whole repertoire of the American Songbook and move people."

Bennett released his first album with Lady Gaga in 2014. Their latest collaboration, a Cole Porter tribute album titled "Love For Sale," was released in October. Last week it garnered six Grammy nominations.

After the nominations, Lady Gaga told BBC Radio 2's "The Zoe Ball Breakfast Show" that it's been heartbreaking to watch what Bennett is going through. She told "60 Minutes" that Bennett had been calling her "Sweetheart" every time she'd seen him since the pandemic began, and she wasn't sure he knew who she was.

But when she came onstage to join him during the Radio City Music Hall concert, Bennett appeared to have no doubt. "Wow," he said as she twirled around in a shimmering gold gown. "Lady Gaga!"

A look of joy flashed across Lady Gaga's face. She bent over, her head in her hands, before doing another twirl.

"I had to keep it together, because we had a sold-out show and I had a job to do," Lady Gaga told "60 Minutes." "But I'll tell you, when I walked out on that stage, and he said, 'Lady Gaga,' my friend saw me, and it was very special."

After the successful Radio City Music Hall shows, Bennett canceled future tour appearances. His son and manager Danny Bennett told Variety those New York concerts would be his last.

"This was a hard decision for us to make, as he is a capable performer. This is, however, doctors' orders," Danny Bennett said. "It's not the singing aspect but, rather, the traveling. Look, he gets tired. The decision is being made that doing concerts now is just too much for him."

Lady Gaga told "60 Minutes" she heard a powerful message in Bennett's last Radio City Music Hall performances.

"It's not a sad story. It's emotional. It's hard to watch somebody change. I think what's been beautiful about this, and what's been challenging, is to see how it affects him in some ways, but to see how it doesn't affect his talent," she said. "I think he really pushed through something to give the world the gift of knowing that things can change, and you can still be magnificent."

Invasives

It’s time to stop demonizing “invasive” species

Climate change is forcing some animals to move. Don’t call them “invasives.”

By Marina Bolotnikova 

Marine ecologist Piper Wallingford was doing fieldwork on the rocky shore of Laguna Beach, California, in 2016 when she noticed a dime-sized creature she’d never seen before. It was a dark unicorn snail, a predator that drills into mussels and injects an enzyme that liquefies their flesh. “Then,” Wallingford explains, “they basically suck it out like soup.”

The animal is native to the Mexican state of Baja California, Wallingford later learned, and it’s been migrating up the coast over the last few decades in search of new habitat, eating into local mussel populations along the way. It’s also one of countless species around the world — from white-tailed deer to lobsters to armadillos to maple trees — that are moving with the climate.

Ecologists expect climate change to create mass alterations in the habitats of these “range-shifting” or “climate-tracking” species, as they’re sometimes called, which will reshuffle ecosystems in ways that are hard to predict. The migrations are critical to species’ ability to survive hotter temperatures.

The scientific community largely views this kind of habitat shift as a good thing, Wallingford and other ecologists told Vox. But the primary lens available to the general public and to policymakers is less forgiving. “Invasive species” is a concept so ingrained in American consciousness that it’s taken on a life of its own, coloring the way we judge the health of ecosystems and neatly dividing life on Earth into native and invasive.

A 2018 Orange County Register story on Wallingford’s work, for example, called the dark unicorn snails “climate invaders.” “I think any time you introduce this idea of a new species, there’s sort of this inherent reaction of, ‘Oh, that’s bad, right?’” Wallingford says. But she encouraged local stakeholders not to try to remove them.

For decades, invasion has been a defining paradigm in environmental policy, determining what gets done with limited conservation budgets. Species deemed invasive have often been killed in gruesome ways. Even though invasion biologists readily point out that many non-native species never become problematic, the invasion concept almost by definition makes scientists skeptical of species moving around. But a growing community of scientists and environmental philosophers now question whether a concept defined by a species’ geographic origin can capture the ethical and ecological complexities of life on a rapidly changing planet. In the 21st century, there’s no such thing as an undisrupted ecosystem, and this will only become truer as climate change and habitat loss accelerate. It’s crucial that we get this right.

Range shifts have “been a real problem for the hardcore invasion biologists to deal with,” says Mark Davis, a biology professor at Macalester College and a critic of the invasion framework.

In a controversial recent paper published in Nature Climate Change, Wallingford and a team of co-authors argued that the tools of invasion biology — for example, looking at a species’ impact on local food or water sources, or figuring out if it’s encountering prey that aren’t used to predators — could be adjusted to understand the impacts of range-shifters.

The proposal got “a lot of pushback,” says Wallingford, who doesn’t necessarily oppose the “invasion” lens. Detractors said that merely linking climate-tracking species with invaders taints them by association. Range-shifters ought to be seen “not as invasive species to keep out, but rather as the refugees of climate change that need our assistance,” University of Connecticut ecologist Mark Urban argued in a comment published in the same journal issue.

Climate change and the range shifts it’s causing are extraordinary circumstances. If a species flees a habitat that is burning or melting, is it ever fair to call it invasive? Even outside of a climate context, this tension reflects a more fundamental problem within the invasive species paradigm. If the label is so stigmatizing that the only appropriate response feels like extermination, perhaps something else needs to take its place.

The origins of “invasive” species

“Invasive species” might feel like a firmly established scientific category, but invasion biology, which studies the impacts of non-native species, is a relatively young field.

British ecologist Charles Elton drew attention to non-native species in his 1958 book The Ecology of Invasion by Animals and Plants, arguing that there is a place, or niche, for every species on the planet where they’ve evolved to survive. Those that move, he believed, should be removed.

Even before that, “There were people who recognized invasions and remarked in great detail on them,” including Charles Darwin, says University of Tennessee ecologist Daniel Simberloff, one of the originators of invasion biology. It wasn’t until the 1980s, Simberloff says, that it cohered into a subfield of scientists talking to each other and looking at invasions as a general phenomenon.

Invasion biologists aren’t opposed to the presence of all non-native species — many of them are innocuous, some are even beneficial. A widely accepted rule of thumb says that about 10 percent of species introduced into new ecosystems will survive, and about 10 percent of those (so, just 1 percent of all non-natives) will cause problems that lead them to become “invasive.” Some can do real harm, such as threatening vulnerable endemic species. Feral cats in Australia, for example, are thought to be a major driver of extinctions of small mammals.

Invasion biology became entangled with politics as its influence grew. In 1999, then-US President Bill Clinton signed an executive order establishing the National Invasive Species Council. It defined an invasive species as a non-native species “whose introduction does or is likely to cause economic or environmental harm or harm to human health.” Simberloff, who advised in drafting the order, says the White House added the “economic” component to that definition — which often amounts to harming agribusiness. “There are introduced species that have some substantial impact on some agricultural crops that don’t really have much of an impact on anything else,” he says. “Many scientists wouldn’t worry about them.”

Combining commercial and environmental concerns in the “invasive” category can make it sound as though threats to the bottom line of a business are tantamount to an ecological problem. This is particularly troublesome considering some businesses — industrial monocropping or cattle farming, for example — that are protected against invasive species by federal and state management programs are themselves hugely harmful to biodiversity. Scientists on both sides of the invasive species debate agree this conflation is problematic.

Common starlings, for example, a species of bird native to Europe and parts of Asia and Africa, have become wildly successful as an introduced species in North America. They’re blamed for hundreds of millions of dollars in agricultural damage annually in the US, often eating grains in cattle feedlots, says Natalie Hofmeister, a PhD candidate in ecology and environmental biology at Cornell University. “That’s like a treasure for the starlings,” she says. The USDA Wildlife Services poisoned 790,000 of the birds in fiscal year 2020. While starlings have long been thought to harm native bird species, which might sound like a more scientific rationale for killing them, Hofmeister says the literature isn’t settled on whether that is true.

The invasion model has a nativist bias

Some conceptions of invasive species’ harms are questionable.

For example, invasives can be considered a threat not only by killing or outcompeting native species but also by mating with them. To protect the “genetic integrity” of species, conservationists often go to extraordinary lengths to prevent animals from hybridizing, environmental writer Emma Marris points out in her book Wild Souls: Freedom and Flourishing in the Non-Human World. Consider the effort in North Carolina to prevent coyotes from breeding with endangered red wolves, which bears uncomfortable parallels to Western preoccupations with racial purity that only recently went out of fashion.

That’s why some scientists look askance at the influence of invasion biology and argue that the field has a baked-in, nativist bias on documenting negative consequences of introduced species and preserving nature as it is. Invasion biology is like epidemiology, the study of disease spread, biologists Matthew Chew and Scott Carroll wrote in a widely read opinion piece a decade ago, in that it is “a discipline explicitly devoted to destroying that which it studies.”

Historically, the term has erroneously expanded to the idea of, “‘If you’re not from here, then you are most likely going to be invasive,’” Sonia Shah, author of The Next Great Migration: The Beauty and Terror of Life on the Move, said on a June 2021 episode of Unexplainable, Vox’s science-mysteries podcast. Conservation policies have been crafted around the idea that if something is not from “here” — however we define that — “then it is likely to become invasive, and therefore we should repel it even before it causes any actual damage,” as Shah says, which is part of the nativist bent that pervades ecological management.

What’s more, the very notion of “invasion” draws on a war metaphor, and media narratives about non-native species are remarkably similar to those describing enemy armies or immigrants. For example, a recent news story in the Guardian about armadillos “besieging” North Carolina described them as “pests” and “freakish.” It also gawked at the animal’s “booming reproduction rate,” an allegation that, not coincidentally, is leveled against human migrants.

Many scholars have explored how anxieties about humans and nonhumans crossing borders, or going places where they don’t “belong,” map onto one another. “The fear of immigration is never isolated to humans,” writes science studies scholar Banu Subramaniam in The Ethics and Rhetoric of Invasion Ecology. “It includes nonhuman migrants in the form of unwanted germs, insects, plants, and animals.”

A “curse word” that harms entire species

One important set of interests isn’t considered in invasive species management at all: those of the “invasives” themselves. Arian Wallach, an ecologist at the University of Technology Sydney who is well known for her criticism of invasion biology, calls invasive species “nothing less and nothing more than a curse word” used to demonize species and exclude them from moral consideration. She first began to question invasion biology after she moved for her PhD to Australia, which has some of the most militant invasive species management programs in the world, aimed at protecting the country’s own unique species.

“I started seeing conservationists blowing up animals with bombs, shooting them from helicopters, poisoning them, spreading diseases through them,” she says. Australia has shot feral goats, camels, deer, pigs, and other animals from the sky (a method also used in the US), and the country kills many small mammals with 1080, a poison that is widely regarded as causing an extremely painful death. Invasion biology, Wallach believes, is “a bad idea that’s had its run.”

Wallach’s own research looks at how dingoes, dog-like animals that are thought to have been brought to the continent thousands of years ago, can control the populations of more recently introduced cats and foxes that eat some of Australia’s iconic marsupial species, such as the eastern barred bandicoot. Her work serves as a proof of concept for “compassionate conservation,” a movement that opposes the mass killing of some animals in an attempt to save others. A core tenet of this framework is to value animals as individuals with their own moral value, rather than just a member of a species.

It might seem, then, that there’s a trade-off between caring about animals as individuals and caring about them in the context of species and ecosystems, but Wallach argues it’s more complicated. Bias against non-natives doesn’t just harm individuals; it can harm entire species.

In a 2019 study, Wallach and a team of researchers pointed out that non-native species are excluded from world conservation goals. This creates situations where, for example, a species like the hog deer, a small deer native to South Asia, is endangered in its home range but hunted and treated as feral in Australia. Using a sample of 134 animals introduced into and out of Australia, the team found that formal conservation counts significantly underestimated their ranges, and that 15 of them could be downgraded from “threatened” or “near threatened” status if their non-native ranges were counted. For many endangered species, non-native habitats can be part of the solution, providing refuge to wildlife that can no longer survive in their native ranges.

A broader movement wants to see beyond the invasion lens

If we try to think outside the invasive species framework, what else can we look to?

Indigenous knowledge is increasingly being recognized as essential to conservation, write Nicholas Reo and Laura Ogden — Dartmouth University professors of Indigenous environmental studies and anthropology, respectively — in an ethnographic study of Anishinaabe perspectives on invasive species. (The Anishinaabe are a group of culturally related First Nations peoples in the Great Lakes region of Canada and the US.) Anishinaabe ideas, Reo and Ogden found, reflect a worldview that sees animals and plants as belonging to nations with their own purposes and believes people have the responsibility to find the reason for a species’ migration. The authors’ sources recognized parallels between the extermination of species deemed invasive and the dark history of colonial violence against Indigenous peoples. The interviews “helped me recognize the ways in which different philosophies of the world shape our ethical response to change,” Ogden says.

Life is “extremely adaptable and regenerative and dynamic,” Wallach says. “Go back 10,000 years, and it’s a completely different world. Twenty thousand years, it’s different. A million, 2 million, 500 million … There is no point that things aren’t shifting and moving.”

Another scientific idea that captures this notion is “novel ecosystems,” or, as environmental journalist Fred Pearce has termed it, “the new wild”: ecosystems that have arisen, intentionally or not, via human introduction.

In Tierra del Fuego, at the tip of Chile and Argentina, a particularly dramatic novel ecosystem is taking shape. In 1946, beavers were introduced there in a futile attempt to create a fur industry. Instead, the animals proliferated and munched down the region’s Nothofagus — southern beech — forests, creating dams and ponds. “They are these miraculous world builders,” says Ogden, who wrote an essay imagining the beavers not as invaders, but as a diaspora. (Beavers have also been a boon for ducks and other marine species.) The invasive species paradigm, Ogden adds, is devoid of nuance, history, and politics; she prefers a concept that gives expression to the moral complexity of the beavers’ presence in South America, as well as the fact that they had no choice in being moved there.

The beavers should ultimately be removed from the forested areas, Ogden believes, though she doesn’t think we can do so with a clear conscience, and says eradication “seems very unlikely.” But the idea of a diaspora opens up a way of thinking about what we owe the beavers, as opposed to how to expel them. After 75 years in South America, don’t the animals have a claim to living there? What right do we have to exterminate them?

I posed this question to Daniel Simberloff, the prominent invasion biologist. “I don’t believe they’re endangering any of the Nothofagus species,” he acknowledged, noting that there hasn’t been enough study to know what impact the beavers are having on species that require the southern beech forest habitat. Still, “I think it’s a disaster that this native ecosystem is being destroyed and replaced by pastures of introduced plants,” Simberloff says. “Other people may not agree with me.”

Even when it’s packaged as objective science, conservation always entails value judgments. One might say that the deaths of 100,000 beavers should count as a “disaster” just as much as the demise of an old-growth forest. Conservationists will have to choose whether to meet ecosystem disruptions like this one with the “war machine” of invasion biology, as Ogden calls it, or to come to terms with a changing world.

For now, the dark unicorn, the thumbnail-sized snail that caught marine ecologist Piper Wallingford’s eye, continues inching up the coast of California. “The question of how they’re getting from one site to another is still one that we can’t answer,” Wallingford says.

There is something humbling in seeing other species’ will to survive in an interconnected world undone by climate change. Though the dark unicorns’ movements elude our understanding, they already know where they need to go.