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June 22, 2026

Unraveling

The Quiet Unraveling of America’s Food Safety Net

Maine had a plan to feed its hungry. Then came Trump's “Big Beautiful Bill.”

By Marcia Brown

As spring hit Maine and the lobstermen prepared for the summer season by repairing their traps and replacing their rope, state lawmakers set out to mend a widening hole in the American social-safety net.

Last year’s passage of the massive federal tax-and-spending One Big Beautiful Bill Act has set in motion one of the biggest transformations of the welfare state that the United States has seen in decades. For more than a generation, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program — which provides roughly 40 million Americans with money for groceries — has served as the country’s dominant vector for direct payments to people struggling to eat. But SNAP’s era as arguably the nation’s preeminent anti-poverty program may be ending. Already 3.5 million people nationwide have been booted from the program and, as the law’s new eligibility terms take effect this year, more are likely to follow, while others will be abruptly sent back into a workforce for which they are unprepared. Parents of teenage children and adults in their 60s will now be expected to find a job and prove they are working. Roughly 45,000 people in Maine, including veterans and homeless adults — briefly granted a reprieve from work requirements during the Biden administration — will be newly required to work or volunteer. Costs to states will balloon, as they are expected to kick in more funds to administer the program and for the first time pay part of the cost of benefits themselves.

In few places has the response been as swift as in Maine, where Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, legislative leaders and state nonprofits seven years ago committed to a 2030 goal of ensuring Mainers always have enough to eat. Now that ambitious objective — one that officials and activists believed was within reach for a small state with a motivated government, even after pandemic-era setbacks — seems even further away.

Instead, lawmakers, nonprofits and bureaucrats now see themselves spending the remainder of the decade trying to manage the impact of a federal law that will make it harder for millions of people to obtain federal nutrition assistance and health care while passing significant costs onto states. The Maine legislature passed a $500 million supplemental budget this spring that will raise revenue through a new tax on millionaires, fund increased staffing to administer SNAP and create a $30 million contingency fund to keep federal food assistance running in the event the program lapses as it did during last year’s record-setting government shutdown.

“What makes it difficult is knowing it’s not sustainable,” said Maine Speaker of the House Ryan Fecteau at the state house, bleary-eyed in a worn long-sleeve tee and vest after presiding over several days of late-night sessions in April to deliver the budget and other priorities.

The new federal requirements are aimed at eliminating fraud and ensuring that adults capable of working attempt to do so. But state officials who actually administer the programs say that most real-life situations are far more complex — that those Americans who struggle to feed themselves often have health challenges or work histories or family responsibilities or transportation problems that make finding work difficult.

“What people who make these decisions in Washington don’t understand is there is constantly something that goes wrong when you’re poor,” said Fecteau, whose family relied on SNAP when he was a child.

Fecteau did not get everything he wanted in that bill, which was signed into law by Mills, and he knows lawmakers will have to come back to the table later this year to find yet more funding. Maine will have to decide whether it can afford to keep a widely used food assistance program that was birthed and sustained by the federal government afloat on a state budget — and if so, how it will have to change.

“What I find most frustrating is knowing that this is not the end,” said Fecteau. “This is likely just the beginning.”

Jeri and Mario Montes had been receiving SNAP benefits for several months before Maine’s Department of Health and Human Services told them that the grocery money materializing monthly on debit cards — covering their entire food budget — would disappear because they were not meeting the program’s work requirements.

The couple, 61 and 60, first met at their Bay Area high school in California. The two attended the same prom in 1983, but with different dates, and both served in the military shortly after high school. But it took 30 years for them to reconnect, as Jeri found work as a police officer and earned her master’s degree in public administration, and Mario worked as a grocery butcher. In 2017, they married in a backyard celebration at Mario’s mother’s house.

But loss soon interrupted their joy at finding each other later in life. Since an on-the-job accident as a police officer, Jeri has suffered from chronic pain and PTSD that kept her from full-time work. Mario injured his knee on the job and took a settlement offer from his supermarket employer to try his hand at a stand-up comedy career in California. But when the Covid-19 pandemic began, comedy clubs closed their doors, Jeri lost her mother and Mario his sister to cancer.

The two decided to start over in a new place without the loss they associated with their home state.

“’You can’t heal where you’ve been hurt,’” Mario recalled Jeri saying at the time.

With a bit of money from selling Jeri’s mom’s house, they packed their belongings into a Jeep Compass and began driving cross country. A stop in Las Vegas didn’t stick. New York City wasn’t accommodating. They landed in New Jersey, where Mario, relying on his butcher experience, opened a deli with a friend — a partnership, and the Montes’ investment in the venture, that soon soured. Jeri suffered a heart attack and a stroke, piling up new medical bills; their apartment was condemned, and they lost months of rent they had paid up front. They had nowhere to go.

“We had a plan, we had money, and then it was gone,” Jeri recalled.

They started driving again, as far north and east as roads would take them. They parked at an I-95 truck stop in coastal Maine — which Mario read once in a book was beautiful and the tap water drinkable — and began sleeping in their car. They survived on Jeri’s monthly $1,258.90 police pension: car insurance, gas and phone bills consumed much of the budget, two $15 a month Planet Fitness memberships paid for showers. Eventually they turned to their friends, starting a GoFundMe to make ends meet. When their money dwindled at the end of the month, they practiced fasting and cut down on gas.

As autumn took hold and the temperatures dropped, Jeri began applying to every shelter she could find on her phone — but they were full or didn’t accept couples. She applied online for SNAP, but never heard back from the state department that administers the program, a modern descendant of food stamps. Then Jeri learned about an event for veterans experiencing homelessness that connected them to a decades-old Portland anti-poverty nonprofit named Preble Street.

A Preble caseworker found them new winter coats, sleeping bags, boxes of food and applications for SNAP benefits. Shortly thereafter, they were given keys to a hotel room before moving into a one-room unit in a transitional housing complex for veterans.

The Montes soon began seeing $292 automatically loaded onto a debit card that they could spend at supermarkets and big-box stores that accept SNAP. While red meat and some processed foods were out of reach for the couple, Mario has refined a vegetable soup recipe and a scratch-cooked tomato sauce to top a lentil pasta that accommodates Jeri’s gluten intolerance. They could still afford just two meals a day, but no longer had to fast to stretch their budget.

The Montes did not know that just months earlier President Donald Trump had signed a law that would jeopardize the tentative stability they had found after months of living out of their car.

H.R. 1, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act upon its passage by Congress in July 2025, was a collection of tax cuts, new spending on immigration enforcement and aid for struggling farmers, jammed together into a single bill so it could pass the Senate under budget-reconciliation rules that require only 51 votes. When House leadership demanded spending cuts to finance it, Agriculture Committee lawmakers looked to food benefits, whose cost had ballooned during the Biden administration.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, the Agriculture Department had loosened the red tape around SNAP sign-ups, making it easier for states, which administer program funds, to add people to their rolls and temporarily offered additional benefit increases during the economic downturn. The Biden administration also made the first permanent update in more than 40 years to SNAP benefit calculations, adjusting them to dietary guidelines and modern eating habits as food prices spiked.

When congressional Republicans set out to slash social spending in 2025, SNAP stood as one of the most obvious targets. They looked to the 1990s, when President Bill Clinton and House Speaker Newt Gingrich negotiated a transformation of what was then America’s foundational welfare program, Aid to Families with Dependent Children, to impose work requirements and time limits on recipients. The reimagined Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program now serves a fraction of the eligible families who once relied on welfare, and economists have found the changes did press some people into the workforce. The 1996 law also instituted the first requirement that able-bodied SNAP participants find work after three months or risk losing benefits.

The experience also provided a model for Republicans who wanted to tighten that bootstraps orientation around a program they argue is too permissive and lacks incentives for the states to rein in spending. “Too many able-bodied adults on welfare are not working at all,” Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins wrote with other Trump cabinet officials in a May 2025 op-ed urging Congress to impose expanded work requirements in SNAP and, for the first time, Medicaid. “Too often we don’t even ask them to. For many, welfare is no longer a lifeline to self-sufficiency but a lifelong trap of dependency.”

Clinton’s welfare reform also left food benefits — which was formally rebranded as SNAP via the 2008 Farm Bill after a decadelong transition from stigmatized food stamps to innocuous debit cards — as the most widely used anti-poverty in-kind benefit still standing. More than two-thirds of people receiving SNAP benefits are not expected to work because they are children, elderly or disabled, according to a pre-One Big Beautiful Bill analysis by the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. But others must prove they are meeting the SNAP work requirement: 80 hours a month in a paying job, a similar number of volunteer hours, or enrollment in a state-approved job training program.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act imposes these same work requirements on a much broader group of participants, including parents of teenagers, adults over the age of 55, veterans, youth aging out of the foster care system, people who are homeless. The law also tightened eligibility standards for some lawfully present immigrants, including refugees and Afghans who helped the U.S. military in the war.

“When you have a program like SNAP after H.R.1, that essentially demands that you work almost every month or get cut off, people are going to get cut off,” explained David Super, a welfare expert at Georgetown University Law Center. “The application process to SNAP is quite burdensome, quite difficult, and ironically, interferes with one’s ability to work. Once you throw someone off, they stay off.”

The Agriculture Department also allows states and counties to waive work requirements in areas where there’s a lack of sufficient jobs, but the One Big Beautiful Bill Act significantly raised the threshold for doing so. California and Illinois lost statewide waivers.

For those who remain in the program, Congress did not decrease the benefit amount — known as a SNAP allotment — but did change how benefits are calculated. That is likely to shrink monthly allotments for millions of people, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

These changes cut SNAP spending by roughly 20 percent over a decade, a significant portion of the One Big Beautiful Bill’s total savings. The CBO estimates these changes to SNAP will save the federal government $187 billion over a decade, including $69 billion specifically from tightened work requirements. The law also creates nationwide Medicaid work requirements for the first time, changes that are expected to save an additional $326 billion over a decade by removing millions from that program.

The Montes began learning about the One Big Beautiful Bill’s impact on SNAP through frequent letters from Maine’s Department of Health about their eligibility. The categories on which the couple had relied for exemptions to work requirements — older, military veterans, and in an unstable housing situation — were disappearing, and they had to figure out what it would mean for them.

Preble Street is named for a short thoroughfare in downtown Portland, too far from the water to see the city’s bustling harbor but close enough that seagulls fly overhead. The neighborhood is gentrifying, and the nonprofit’s primary office and one of its shelters are just steps from popular neighborhood cafes and new-build high-rises welcoming home transplants who have moved to Maine since the pandemic.

While those like the Montes who receive its services still line up near the Preble Street Chapel, where the organization first operated, the anti-poverty nonprofit has expanded its footprint in the city over the last 50 years, adding shelters, housing and anti-trafficking services and moving into a larger office space around the corner. There, caseworkers are guided by the words of Progressive Era social reformer Jane Addams stenciled onto walls: “...much of the insensibility and hardness of the world is due to a lack of imagination which prevents a realization of the experience of other people.”

Preble’s staff has been preparing since last August for the effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to wash ashore. The nonprofit has dramatically increased private fundraising efforts to support an expansion of its meal service and food pantry options. A new food security hub, as the organization refers to its combined commercial kitchen, storage site and distribution center, opened last fall and is already serving more than 50,000 meals and distributing 15,000 food boxes.

The organization has led hundreds of hours of training on SNAP’s changes for its roughly 200 social workers, educating them about the new eligibility requirements so they can prove to Maine’s health department that clients qualify for food assistance and health care. Caseworkers tally on a whiteboard how many hours they have waited on hold with Maine’s health department. “My heart is just breaking for all of the people who don’t have caseworkers, which is the vast majority of people on SNAP,” said Preble Street advocacy supervisor Annika Moore, who has been training social workers on the new law. “I do not know how someone could really navigate these changes without help.”

That effort became much more complex last fall. The Agriculture Department first sent work requirements implementation guidance to states during a record-setting government shutdown last October and set a compliance deadline for weeks later — an unprecedentedly brief timeline compared to other program changes of similar significance. When benefits lapsed for the first time in SNAP’s history, low-income Mainers struggled to find adequate groceries and some pantries ran out of food entirely. State administrators scrambled to understand if they could send out partial benefits or none at all.

Even after the shutdown ended, the Agriculture Department offered inconsistent or belated answers to the state’s questions. Wrongly interpreting the law when it comes to SNAP will have severe consequences for states, which will have to contribute to the cost of benefits for the first time next year if the federal government calculates they have paid beneficiaries too much or too little. Such so-called payment error rate calculations could lead Maine to pay as much as 15 percent of the cost of benefits, or about $53 million annually.

“Maine should encourage financial independence and contribution to community,” said department spokesperson Harry Fones. “Recipients of any welfare program are not victims, they are capable people who at times, need a helping hand, not a government or leftist organizations telling them to stay idle and disengaged.”

In a mobile-home community in Bangor, where many residents are income-eligible but are failing to meet the work requirements, Suzy Young, a paralegal for the legal services nonprofit Maine Equal Justice, is struggling to get people to apply. One client, she recalled, left a decision letter from Maine’s health department sitting on her table for weeks, afraid to learn she’d been denied benefits.

“’Why do I bother? Why do I put myself through this review and the three-hour wait on the phone for DHHS just to hear I’m not eligible? I can’t work, I don’t have transportation to volunteer,’” Young, once a SNAP recipient herself, recalled being told.

For people like the Montes, the benefits landscape is a maze. After hours of phone calls to the state and her caseworkers from Preble Street, and reams of paperwork, Jeri was assured that she had successfully proven to the health department that her disabilities qualify her for an exemption from the work requirements.

But Mario had not, and caseworkers explained that to keep receiving benefits the 60-year-old would have to secure a job he can do on a bum knee.

In 2019, just months into her first term as governor, Mills signed a bipartisan resolution setting a goal to end hunger in her state by 2030. The federal government has been an unsteady partner in the project. During the pandemic, expanded federal benefits for low-income families helped drive down child poverty and hunger rates. Mills oversaw investments in a new statewide free school meals program and expanded state procurement from Maine farmers, along with efforts to streamline the application process and expand outreach to eligible residents.

“No matter how dedicated we are here in the state, no matter what our political climate is like here in Maine, we are very much at the whim of the federal government,” said Anna Korsen, who co-chairs the Ending Hunger Advisory Committee established by the 2019 resolution.

Now as she enters the final months of her second term, Mills — who ended a campaign for U.S. Senate in April — finds herself facing a very different hunger challenge. Food costs are skyrocketing just as the federal government is cutting various forms of social-welfare spending even beyond SNAP. The Trump administration slashed $1 billion in federal funding for schools and food banks to buy from local farms, and cut another roughly $500 million in federal funding for food banks promised by the Biden administration.

Korsen, who also heads the Brunswick-based nonprofit Full Plates Full Potential, said that while no formal decisions have been made, the One Big Beautiful Bill has made the self-imposed 2030 deadline “unrealistic.”

In January, when Maine will be expected to take on even more of the costs associated with running the SNAP program, a different governor could decide to drop out of the program altogether if the state can’t come up with the funds. Bobby Charles, the Republican candidate for governor, has pledged to eliminate the state income tax, jeopardizing revenue necessary for social programs.

Even if Maine can come up with the funding to pay for part of the cost of SNAP benefits required by the new law, it likely will not be able to fund the program at the level that allowed the Montes to participate. State supplementary programs, like one that gives SNAP participants extra dollars to buy fruits and vegetables, might be on the chopping block if state legislators are forced to find the funds to keep the program running, explained Fecteau.

“If we face a scenario where we’re choosing between the foundational program, and these bonus programs, I mean, we know what that choice looks like,” he said. “These are the choices that Washington is trying to force us into.”

When the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed, some states moved to change their programs before the deadline, anticipating costs that they just can’t shoulder. In Arizona, that has meant a near-50 percent drop in SNAP participants as the state slashed administrative staff, choking up application reviews and effectively forcing people out of the program.

Maine has taken the opposite tack, passing millions in new funding as the state works to keep eligible people in the SNAP program despite the bigger bill from the federal government. Last year, Mills’ government began preparing employees to process the newly-complicated SNAP applications and, with the supplemental budget funding, plans to hire more staff and upgrade technology. The state also partnered closely with community organizations to help more income-eligible people navigate the increasingly convoluted benefits landscape.

The supplemental budget passed this spring is the latest effort from state Democratic leadership to insulate Mainers from federal policy changes, but even the budget’s supporters acknowledge its limits. Preble Street is now planning an expansion of its lobbying work from the statehouse to Washington.

“We’re ramping up as we’re realizing that that is where our clients are being honestly affected the most,” said Moore.

Still, Maine’s SNAP rolls have declined by more than 15,000 since work requirements took effect, an 8.7 percent decline. But some anti-hunger experts say that participation could drop even lower than initial estimates.

Under Mills, Maine’s budget has grown more than 40 percent over the last decade as she advances popular but expensive policies like universal school meals. While the state legislature has passed tax increases on the wealthy, lawmakers are realistic about how much more they can raise taxes, even on wealthy Mainers.

“We’re a state of 1.4 million people,” said Fecteau. “We’re the oldest state in the nation. We have a great deal of poverty. We have older adults who have a lot of needs. We have a lot of people with disabilities. We have a lot of veterans.”

The Montes moved into their new home near Portland in early May. For their one-bedroom apartment in a mixed income housing complex for older adults, they will pay 30 percent of their income, derived entirely from Jeri’s pension. With car insurance and phone bills, that leaves them with less than $600 a month for other expenses like wifi, gas and groceries. The couple said they usually run out of money halfway through the month.

In May, the Montes began receiving $24 in SNAP benefits, a 92 percent decrease. Unless he can find work that he is physically able to do and prove that he is working 80 hours a month, Mario no longer meets the requirements for the SNAP program, and Jeri’s benefits are tied to her pension income.

Mario’s kitchen skills have helped him land two catering gigs in June. But the days he spends chopping and seasoning and preparing food, as well as his time serving it, won’t be enough for him to meet the work requirements to continue receiving SNAP benefits.

The couple plans to supplement SNAP benefits with a twice-monthly visit — all they are allowed — to a nearby food pantry and help from other Portland-area nonprofits. And they’ve decided to apply for Social Security early.

“A lot of people think, ‘Oh, well, you have a master’s degree. Why aren’t you kicking ass?’ Jeri said. “It doesn’t mean you can’t still struggle.”

Totally Bonkers

The Totally Bonkers Race to Replace Elise Stefanik

The chaotic congressional battle pits a traditional Republican against a first-time candidate whose campaign embodies the spectacle, grievance and combativeness of the MAGA movement.

By Nick Reisman

At first blush, the vibes at the warehouse where Republican House hopeful Anthony Constantino was holding his campaign rally were decidedly wholesome. American flags bedecked the walls of the cavernous space, which smelled of free pizza. Constantino — a 43-year-old who bears a passing resemblance to tough-guy actor Tom Hardy — led the crowd in singing “Happy Birthday” to his campaign manager. A local minor league team official praised him for his help refurbishing the baseball stadium in this rust belt city.

Constantino’s backers, decked out in black and white t-shirts touting his recent endorsement from President Trump, cheered as their candidate name-dropped the MAGA leader and his assorted disciples, from Rudy Giuliani to Elon Musk to Roger Stone.

But the energy shifted as Constantino — a local businessman whose previous political experience includes a rap video dissing New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani — got more and more worked up as he aired grievances about his political enemies, namely Democrats (“They’re evil”) and his primary opponent State Assemblymember Robert Smullen (“A very dishonest person”).

And then, when the boxer-turned-politician opened up the floor to questions, things turned combative.

At the mic was a man who’d sparred with Constantino on Facebook over immigration nearly a year before — and who seemed intent on reliving that online confrontation. Constantino’s views on immigration align closely with Trump’s deportation agenda. The attendee argues closing borders will only exacerbate human trafficking.

“When I brought that up,” the man said, “you challenged me to a fight and said that I was a fake gangster.”

Constantino, standing in front of dozens of balloons fashioned into the American flag, hit back.

“It’s clearly illegal, human trafficking,” Constantino said, leaning forward. “And anyone who supports that, maybe you do need to get beat up a little bit.”

Security swarmed the man and he was soon ejected from the rally. And as the man was being led away, the candidate got the final word.

“There’s something about getting into the ring that changes the way people think,” Constantino said, waxing philosophical about his past boxing career. “He might benefit from that experience. I don’t know if words otherwise are going to get to him.”

The boxing metaphor is apt: Constantino is waist-deep in a bristling Republican primary to replace GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik in a sprawling upstate House district that borders Canada. And the primary, which will take place on Tuesday and lacks any independent polling, is pitting the first-time candidate against someone who also loves a good fight.

His foe, Smullen, a retired Marine colonel who served three tours of duty in Afghanistan, has launched broadsides dinging him for his past Democratic Party enrollment, disparaging his at-times profane hip hop lyrics and generally painting him as deeply unfit to represent the region in Congress.

In turn, Constantino, who owns the Sticker Mule factory that makes custom stickers, threatened to sue Smullen over the attacks and sent him a text message calling him “an evil person” who must be stopped.

So it should come as no surprise that the raucous, bitter battle to succeed Stefanik has become a circus, tearing Empire State Republicans asunder — and offering a crystal ball look, albeit cloudy, into a GOP future centered exclusively around Trump-accented spectacle. The spiraling brawl even has its own collateral damage, including a defamation suit from New York Conservative Party Chair Jerry Kassar against Constantino, heated confrontations with local officials and social media feuds.

The race is testing whether Smullen, a stalwart Republican with sterling GOP credentials, can compete against someone born wholly out of the MAGA movement. Shell-shocked New York Republican leaders aren’t quite sure what to make of Constantino and his sharp-elbowed battle against the alternative, who has endorsements from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Rifle Association. Privately they wonder if Constantino, who has never run for public office until now, is up to the task of representing the district in Washington.

Yet what some Republicans won’t publicly acknowledge is Constantino represents a climax of the MAGA era, the logical conclusion of Trump’s sweeping impact on American politics manifesting all the way down to the House level. His candidacy might also be inevitable in a district where Stefanik herself has evolved from a moderate Paul Ryan aide to a MAGA stalwart. (Stefanik, for her part, has declined to endorse in this high-stakes race to succeed her, and did not comment for this story.)

The race is a potential window into the Republican Party’s future, a coming era in which first-time candidates like Constantino in New York or reality TV star Spencer Pratt in Los Angeles can capture attention by distilling Trumpism’s essence down to performance, pageantry — and an eagerness to fight.

Pratt lost his bid for mayor in deep blue LA. And Trump’s support doesn’t always translate to electoral success. It underscores that whoever wins the fight for MAGA now will control the future of the Republican Party as it braces for a post-Trump world.

Either way, Constantino’s candidacy offers a test case for just how far a MAGA candidate can go as Trump winds down his time in the Oval Office.

“All my attacks are honest and things that people need to know,” Constantino told me inside his factory. “President Trump changed a lot of norms. Why don’t you want politicians talking to citizens?”

Republicans, including those who have quietly coveted the Stefanik seat, are happy to not be Smullen.

The state lawmaker is a traditional Republican whose compelling background — combat experience and legislative record — would normally make him a shoe-in for this ruby red seat, but he is now withstanding daily pummelings from his opponent. In turn, Smullen has attacked Constantino in often personal terms, calling him “mentally unfit” to be in Congress. What has chafed Smullen the most, though, is an attack on his bravery and the implication from a Constantino supporter that he politically leveraged his 14-year-old son’s death after he was struck by a car.

“My opponent calls me a ‘fucking coward’,” Smullen told me in an interview. “Utterly ridiculous. Certainly I’m no coward by any stretch of the imagination.”

Armed with a selfie stick, he’d just shot a short video outside the state Capitol in Albany and was slightly out of breath when he settled into a leather upholstered chair to unspool his complaints with Constantino in the lounge outside of the ornate Assembly chamber.

“Beyond the pale.” “Unfit.”

These are fighting words in any Republican-on-Republican feud and Smullen uses them freely to blast back at Constantino. Perhaps the most devastating punch Smullen wants to land on Constantino is this charge:

“He’s no Donald Trump.”

This is a district that went hard for Trump in 2024 — 60 percent of voters here cast their lot with the then-former president. And in many ways, voters here fit the profile of the traditional MAGA voter: Overwhelmingly white, predominantly blue collar and weary of status quo politics.

In some parts, the rural expanses of New York’s North Country resemble Alaska or western Maine. Forbidding in the winter and capable of becoming blisteringly hot in the summer, the Adirondack Park has been shedding population for generations and struggles with housing affordability. Battles over land use in the protected area are legion. Towns that line the border have reported declining business with Canada after Trump’s expansive tariff program. And the Mohawk Valley is where the nation’s rustbelt begins — home to decaying factories and farms that are increasingly likely to be turned over to solar panel companies.

Fighting is in the historical DNA. Abolitionist John Brown would work his farm outside Lake Placid when he wasn’t fomenting a violent overthrow of the South’s slaveholding elite. There is an overriding libertarian streak that runs through this region — a don’t-tread-on-me ethos that’s entwined with a strong distrust of strangers and government officials.

“That suspicion of outsiderism is larger than the forces of political allegiance or ideology,” said Aaron Wolf, a 2014 Democratic House candidate who unsuccessfully ran against Stefanik.

These rough-and-tumble crosscurrents make the district an amalgam of the nation’s political duels, with self-sufficiency a common throughline. While Trump has been successful in the district, Barack Obama also won a prior version of this seat.

“I think that being an outsider is worse than being a Democrat sometimes, and that’s not because we’re not open-minded,” Wolf said. “This is a place whose decision making has often been in the hands of outsiders. Going back to the British and the French warring over the Champlain Valley and the North Country, and determining the fate of the indigenous population as well, and then you have, in another era, the environmentalists versus the timber interests.”

Stefanik has represented versions of the district for more than a decade. She framed herself as a pragmatist, touting bipartisan efforts on anodyne concerns like dairy prices. Initially the youngest woman elected to the House — a distinction she held until Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s victory — Stefanik set out to help elect more GOP women.

Then the Trump era hit, scrambling the nation’s politics and the trajectory of Stefanik’s district.

She morphed into an ardent Trump supporter — “ultra MAGA” in her words — a shift that was in keeping with any ambitious Republican who could spot where the party’s voters were headed. Trump-skeptical Republicans lost their seats; Stefanik was elevated to House GOP leadership.

Now as she prepares to leave after the twin disappointments of losing her bid to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and a scuttled run for governor, Stefanik’s presence looms largest — perhaps more so than Trump’s — over the district.

“At the end of the day Elise Stefanik has the biggest voice in the entire room,” Saratoga County GOP Chair Joe Shurada told me. “She has a megaphone no one else has. I don’t know if she’s going to make an endorsement. But if she did, her opinion counts the most.”

The stakes are high for Republicans — even in a blood red district.

National Democrats have not shown a public interest in a race for a district Trump has won handily in three elections. That may change if Constantino wins the primary and Smullen remains in the general election on the Conservative Party’s ballot line. That’s a scenario that haunts Republican Party leaders.

Appearing on the Conservative Party ballot line can be a boon for Republicans — especially in New York’s red pockets.

New York’s Conservative Party was formed in 1962 — a William F. Buckley-infused answer to Republican Nelson Rockefeller’s liberalism. Over the decades as the state became a deeper shade of Democratic blue, the Conservative Party has tried to pull New York Republicans to the right. It’s now in an unofficial partnership with the New York GOP, often cross-endorsing the Republicans’ preferred candidates and reinforcing establishment support.

Sometimes, though, that relationship breaks down.

Smullen has the backing of the Conservative Party and is currently slated to remain on the November ballot. He hasn’t committed to dropping out if he loses the June 23 primary. If both men continue to duke it out through the summer and fall, Democrats would have a significantly better chance of flipping the seat — a state of affairs the party would have considered unimaginable if Stefanik was seeking another term.

Complicating matters is Conservative Party Chair Jerry Kassar’s defamation suit against Constantino. The case is working its way through the state Supreme Court in Brooklyn.

A year ago, Constantino told supporters Kassar threatened to kill him and implied the party leader ordered the campaign’s press aide to be murdered. Constantino recorded a phone call with Kassar, in which the chair is heard warning the candidate against challenging a Republican incumbent in 2026 and that doing so “is just a bigger reason why we intend to kill you,” he said. In an interview, Constantino said Kassar was among those he considers a “swamp creature” — part of a broader problem for candidates like him trying to break into politics.

“Mr. Constantino made false claims against Mr. Kassar that he widely publicized, accusing Mr. Kassar of orchestrating a plot to murder Mr. Constantino,” said Kassar attorney Christian Browne. “Mr. Kassar is suing Mr. Constantino to hold him accountable for his false and reckless conduct and to protect Mr. Kassar’s unblemished reputation after nearly five decades in political and public life. The fact that Mr. Constantino is presently running for office is irrelevant to Mr. Kassar’s case.”

I asked Constantino if it was possible Kassar may have not meant this threat “to kill you” literally.

“It’s a strange word choice, and sometimes people let things slip,” Constantino said. Kassar, he added, did clarify that “I’ll do everything in my power to destroy you.”

It remains to be seen if all this intra-party combat will provide an opening for Democrats in the fall. The last time a Democrat represented a version of the district came in 2009 as the Tea Party movement gained steam. Republicans picked then-Assemblymember Dede Scozzafava to succeed Rep. John McHugh, who had joined the Obama administration. The Conservative Party, believing Scozzafava wasn’t sufficiently to the right, picked a local accountant, Doug Hoffman. The ensuing race became a disaster for Republicans and a gift for Democrats, who took advantage of the split. Democratic Rep. Bill Owens won a special election and held the seat until January 2015.

Republicans, fighting to retain control of the narrowly divided House in what’s shaping up to be a tough election year, desperately need to avoid a replay of 2009 this November.

In many ways, Smullen’s pedigree fits the Old School, GOP mold. He’s got degrees from elite institutions like The Citadel and Georgetown University. He’s a high-ranking military officer who’s seen action. (He prefers to speak in person, rather than the phone, after “too many bangs and booms” during training and combat damaged his hearing.) He served as a White House fellow during the George W. Bush era. He’s clocked in a seven-year tenure in the New York State Assembly. And he fits the mold of an upstate New York Republican: Attuned to rural issues with a fiscal conservative streak.

But he’s sometimes been out of step with his own party, even as the New York GOP took the rare step of endorsing him in the contentious House primary.

He’s feuded with Stefanik’s political allies in upstate New York — a potentially fateful series of interactions that stand to make an endorsement from the powerful outgoing lawmaker highly unlikely. Smullen sued the chair of the Fulton County Republican Committee Sue McNeil, who is close with Stefanik, in a bid to remove her from the leadership post and install his own ally. The legal challenge was ultimately unsuccessful and Stefanik endorsed McNeil’s push to remain the head of the local party.

Then there was a 2021 incident in Stefanik’s Washington, DC office in which he threatened to launch a primary bid against her, according to two people with direct knowledge of the exchange and granted anonymity to discuss the private conversation. (The alleged threat came as the current district lines were in doubt ahead of the 2022 district redrawing.) Smullen’s campaign has denied he ever planned to challenge Stefanik; he insists he has a positive relationship with the outgoing House lawmaker, who attended his son’s funeral and wake. (Stefanik’s team declined to comment.)

He’s also had a much-publicized run-in with the law: He was arrested in 2018 after claiming a property tax exemption for veterans on a non-primary residence. Smullen paid a reimbursement to the local government; the charge was reduced to a violation. He’s dismissed the incident as a paperwork error.

Despite these instances, Smullen’s political tenure has overall been predictable, even staid. He’s willing to work across the aisle on non-ideological issues, like rural safety or getting a bipartisan organ donation bill passed after his son was killed.

Indeed, Smullen is running on a traditional Republican platform of growing the economy, securing the border and supporting the Trump administration’s agenda. Yet much of his campaign has been spent responding to Constantino’s barrage of attacks.

He’s had enough. In May, after the conclusion of their only televised debate, Smullen refused to shake Constantino’s outstretched hand.

Four days later, Smullen called reporters down to a windowless, air conditioned Albany hotel conference room to explain why. After the press assembled, he quietly placed posters on easels arrayed around him.

The “evil” text message on one poster. The Facebook post by a Vermont-based Constantino supporter accusing Smullen of politicizing his son’s death blown up on another. A Sticker Mule sticker that said, “Kill the police.”

“Let it sink in,” Smullen said. “This is the temperament of the lifelong Democrat asking you to send him to Congress as a Republican.” (Constantino says he previously registered as a Democrat to support a friend running for Albany mayor.)

His voice cracked.

“Would you shake hands with someone who believes that you’re an evil person?”

Later, I asked Smullen if he will endorse Constantino if he’s the Republican nominee.

“You know, he’s threatened me and tried to intimidate me and called me evil,” said Smullen, adding that he is confident he will prevail in the primary. “You know, his team have said the things that they’ve said about my son and so I’ll leave it at that.”

When I pointed out to Smullen that his answer was neither a “yes” nor a “no,” his voice went quieter.

“I’ll leave it at that,” he said.

In 2024, after an assasination attempt on Trump’s life in Butler, Pa., Constantino erected an illuminated 12-foot-tall “Vote for Trump” sign on his warehouse roof.

That act of adulation served to jump-start an improbable candidacy.

His Trump sign caught Roger Stone’s attention, who reached out to the youngish CEO. Over dinner, the infamous political operative, whose 40-month prison term for seven felony charges was commuted by Trump, convinced Constantino to run for Congress. (Trump later pardoned Stone.) Since then, the candidate has been embraced by MAGA, receiving warm endorsements from Giuliani and former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn and he was invited to stand in line with Musk at Trump’s inauguration.

Constantino was born in Albany and attended Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, the prestigious university in nearby Troy and studied economics. He never finished. When he was 7, his Navy veteran dad died and his father’s business struggled after his death. So, at 19, Constantino dropped out of college to take over his father’s former photo envelope company. In 2010, he launched his own firm, Sticker Mule, with the motto, “Custom printing that kicks ass.” It’s now a 90,000-square-foot factory with 1,000-employees.

In his late 30s, he became a boxer — a risky venture for anyone approaching middle age. One video posted online shows Constantino unleashing a quick, violent barrage of punches on his opponent. He wins in the second round after his foe dropped to one knee and the referee ended the fight. And he’s dabbled in music, some of it rap, some gospel or country-inspired, much of it fitting in the growing genre of MAGA praise music.

“Can’t fuck with America, bitch,” Constantino raps in a diss track aimed at Mamdani. “This is New York City, home of Donald Trump, Tupac and Biggie.” Another song, which Trump shared on Truth Social, ends with Constantino winkingly suggesting he would run for president one day. He insisted to me that line was meant to be broadly aspirational: Anyone, including a guy like Trump, can become president one day.

A political generation ago his candidacy would have been dismissed as a gadfly effort by a local crank.

Yet Constantino has excelled at wielding the current coin of the realm: an uncanny ability to capture voters’ attention and stoke their support. He’s pledged to give his congressional salary away to a local veteran’s family. He stages block party-style events at his sticker factory. He gifted Trump with a giant bronze statue depicting him raising his fist in defiance after he survived an assasination attempt. The shooting in Butler, he has said, is what propelled him to get involved in politics and endorse Trump.

Self-funding his campaign with $10 million, Constantino has spent more than $3.8 million on TV and digital ads, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact. He’s spending at a fast clip, with some of that cash plowed back into Sticker Mule. The campaign has reported spending money on “donor mementos” as well as merchandise, design and marketing, according to federal campaign finance records. By contrast, Smullen’s campaign recorded just over $500,000 in ads, which often air back-to-back with Constantino. Smullen has also loaned his campaign money — $1 million, a tenth of what Constantino has poured into the race.

His campaign hires have come under scrutiny. That includes Alec Flores, a Nevada man who was brought on as a “support agent” last year and is set to face a murder charge in November. He faces a Nevada-specific “open murder” charge, leaving it up to a jury to determine if Flores is guilty of first or second-degree murder or voluntary or involuntary manslaughter. (Flores, who Constantino has said briefly worked for the campaign and soon left, did not respond to a request for comment.) Constantino, who has not met the man, told me he would “put a better structure in place” if his campaign hires again.

A “Vote for Trump” sign on top of a building owned by Anthony Constantino on Thursday, June 18, 2026, in Amsterdam, N.Y. Mr. Constantino is hoping to be the Republican party’s nominee to run in the general election for New York’s 21st Congressional District.  Cindy Schultz for POLITICO
A “Vote for Trump” sign on top of a building owned by Constantino in Amsterdam, N.Y.

In keeping with his confrontational zeal, Constantino earlier this year was removed from a local Republican meeting, escorted out of the room by the county sheriff. The ejection came after Constantino repeatedly claimed Smullen was “lying” about his business. The New York Republican establishment took stock of Constantino’s antics and endorsed Smullen, who also has the backing of the state’s GOP House delegation, save for Stefanik.

Constantino believes the rejection by the state party is a blessing for how he’s framed the campaign.

“If we win, it’s a victory for the forces of good,” he told me. “If it goes the other way, it would be a victory for the corrupt swamp people protecting their power, entrenching themselves more and scaring out outsiders.”

In this insiders vs. outsiders race, anything seems possible.

Received all their funds from a super PAC that also supports Republicans.

FEC filings confirm GOP meddling in Dem primaries

Two shadowy groups, Lead Left and Real Change, received all their funds from a super PAC that also supports Republicans.

By Jessica Piper

A Republican-linked group was the sole funded of two pop-up super PACs that spent more than $4.3 million across a swath of Democratic congressional primaries to support candidates seen as less electable.

Democrats had speculated that the two groups, Real Change PAC and Lead Left, were Republican meddling as they spent heavily across Democratic primary races in Texas, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Nebraska and Maine in recent months.

New filings submitted to the Federal Election Commission late Saturday night show both groups got all of their money so far from Conservative Americans PAC, a super PAC founded in 2023 that this cycle has also sent money to the Senate Leadership Fund — Senate Republicans’ super PAC arm — and a host of other Republican groups.

The meddling super PACs, which have spent entirely in open Democratic primaries, have a mixed record so far. In Maine’s 2nd District, state auditor Matt Dunlap — who benefited from a bit over $500,000 in spending from Real Change PAC boosting him and attacking one of his primary rivals — was declared the winner in recent days and will be Democrats’ nominee in a light red seat they are hoping to keep in November.

And in Nebraska’s 2nd District, Lead Left spent $435,000 to oppose state Sen. John Cavanaugh, who lost to political activist Denise Powell.

But the groups came up short in other races. Real Change PAC also spent more than $650,000 against Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett in New Jersey’s 7th District, while Lead Left spent $1.7 million fighting union leader Bob Brooks in Pennsylvania’s 7th District and just over $1 million to boost Maureen Galindo — a sex therapist who faced criticism over perceived antisemitic comments — in Texas’ 35th District. Galindo ultimately lost to sheriff’s deputy Johnny Garcia.

Conservative Americans PAC has received all of its funding so far this year from a Virginia-based nonprofit called the American Prosperity Alliance. The PAC did not immediately respond to an email listed in its FEC filings on Sunday morning.

Pop-up super PACs, which take advantage of the timing of FEC reporting deadlines to avoid reporting their sources of funding before primary elections, have become increasingly common in recent cycles.

Reconciliation meeting to gut the country

House GOP races to make Recon 3.0 real

House GOP leaders are tentatively planning another senior-level reconciliation meeting for Wednesday.

By Mia McCarthy and Meredith Lee Hill

House Republicans have eight days to prove Reconciliation 3.0 might actually happen.

The House returns Tuesday with only eight legislative days before they break again for the July 4 holiday. If members want a realistic chance at fulfilling their self-imposed timeline for advancing the legislation before the end of July — when they pause work again for another five weeks — they need to move fast.

That means assembling, and then adopting, a budget resolution — the first step in unlocking the filibuster skirting power of the reconciliation process. It took Republicans months to advance such a blueprint during their two earlier reconciliation efforts this Congress.

House GOP leaders are tentatively planning another senior-level reconciliation meeting for Wednesday, according to three people involved in the talks granted anonymity to discuss private plans.

Still, the House is coming back with several other moving items to deal with this week, including promised briefings on the president’s Iran deal and a major housing affordability package GOP leadership wants to clear as soon as Wednesday.

Reconciliation talks also come as President Donald Trump is expected to join the Senate’s GOP lunch Wednesday, where he’ll likely continue pushing the chamber to pass his SAVE America Act or attach pieces of the GOP elections bill to the party-line legislation (an idea one of the bill’s biggest backers, Sen. Mike Lee, spiked Sunday).

Republicans involved with Reconciliation 3.0 discussions also warn they need to reach a final agreement on how to pay for the bill as well as what policy items will be included before GOP leaders can try to advance any budget resolution.

At this point, however, many fiscal hawks and at-risk incumbents are largely unhappy about how the discussions are coming along.

“It’s fake pay-fors for defense spending no one has fully agreed to and no meaningful reforms,” said one House Republican granted anonymity to discuss private talks.

Back on the other side of the Capitol, GOP senators have been in no rush to start working on a third party-line bill, especially as they are consumed with other political fires — like trying to confirm Jay Clayton as director of national intelligence to speed up a FISA reauthorization (more on that below).

Rep. Morgan Griffith said he was confident if the right policies are included in the House plan the Senate would then take it up — although he, too, acknowledged the challenges of a short timeline.

“If we do it right, yeah,” Griffith said. “There’s some interesting things out there that are being discussed that could make it a real possibility.”

Kids online safety package

Guthrie and Pallone cement deal for kids online safety package

The new package complicates a separate push for a kids safety bill coming from the Senate.

By Owen Dahlkamp and Kelsey Brugger

The House Energy and Commerce Committee leadership reached a bipartisan deal for legislation to protect kids on the internet — a development that complicates Congress’ push to pass child safety legislation by the year’s end.

Committee Chair Brett Guthrie of Kentucky and ranking member Frank Pallone of New Jersey have an agreement on the Kids Online Safety Act, or KOSA, which aims to set stricter online safety standards for kids, according to committee spokesperson Matt VanHyfte.

The legislation, which already cleared the committee in March, will be updated under an expedited procedure and could be considered on the House floor next week, according to a person familiar with the deal who was granted anonymity to discuss private deliberations. Even if the House passes it, lawmakers would still need to resolve differences with a competing Senate version of KOSA, while addressing questions such as whether federal requirements on artificial intelligence should override state rules.

“We worked across the aisle for many months and have now found common ground on policies to significantly improve the digital environment for kids,” Guthrie and Pallone said in a joint statement.

“Through empowering parents, establishing safety as a default, strengthening privacy for children and teens, increasing transparency around data brokers, and holding Big Tech accountable, the KIDS Act delivers the 21st century protections parents have demanded and our kids deserve,” the pair added.

The committee passed a version of KOSA along partisan lines in March in a larger package called the Kids Internet and Digital Safety Act, or KIDS Act, but Guthrie wanted to make the legislation bipartisan. The pair negotiated for months and reached an agreement late last week, said a committee aide granted anonymity to discuss private negotiations. Staff are expected to be briefed today on the updated language.

The House version of KOSA would not include the “duty of care” standard that would require companies to design social media platforms with kids’ safety in mind — a major sticking point for Democrats who previously rejected versions of KOSA without that language.

The bill would also override state laws that do not meet the federal standards while still allowing states to enact stricter regulations.

The language would also preempt state AI laws that relate to the policies in the proposal.

The KIDS Act, which includes KOSA, also includes bills that would require pornographic websites to implement age verification technology, bar minors from using disappearing messaging features and require AI-powered chatbots to disclose that they are not humans.

The White House and Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) are working on a package that would include several online child safety bills and preempt some state AI laws.

That package is expected to include the Senate version of KOSA, which includes the “duty of care” standard; the NO FAKES Act, which would create new restrictions on AI deepfakes; and the App Store Accountability Act, which would require minors to obtain parental consent before downloading apps.

Meta, which killed a Senate-approved version of KOSA two years ago, is no longer opposing the Senate version of KOSA if the App Store Accountability Act and limited preemption of state AI laws are included.

British PM

Andy Burnham on course to be British PM in weeks after Keir Starmer quits

Britain could now have a new prime minister by mid-July after embattled Starmer quit — and Burnham’s main rival folded.

By Sam Francis, Dan Bloom and Matt Honeycombe-Foster

Andy Burnham, the man widely expected to replace Keir Starmer as U.K. prime minister, is on course to be running the country within weeks after a key rival for the Labour leadership folded and endorsed him.

Starmer announced his resignation as British prime minister Monday morning, bowing to pressure after Burnham, the popular former mayor of Greater Manchester, resoundingly won a by-election that would let him challenge for the leadership of the governing Labour Party.

In an at-times tearful statement outside No.10 Downing Street, Starmer — who has battled dire poll ratings and collapsing support among his own members of parliament — said he had informed King Charles III of his decision to quit.

He set out plans for a Labour leadership contest that would allow a new prime minister by September, and said he would stay in office to “ensure an orderly handover of power.” 

But in a significant move, Burnham has already been endorsed by Wes Streeting, the former cabinet minister who had been expected to be his main challenger for the job. It means it now looks almost inevitable that Burnham will become Britain’s prime minister in three and a half weeks’ time — without a full contest.

Streeting, the former health secretary, was seen as the only viable candidate who might have run in opposition to Burnham in a contest for the top job.

This is consequential not just for the shape of the race but the timing of a new administration.Many of Burnham’s allies wanted him to enter parliament in September no matter what — giving him time to firm up a policy platform.

But it now looks like he will be denied this chance. The thinking in Starmer’s camp is that, if there is a full contest, the new PM would be in office by Sept. 1. But if there is no contest the new PM would start work on July 17 or 18 — shortly after MP nominations close.

Labour’s ruling body will sign off the timetable for the contest this week. Three people familiar with its workings told POLITICO that it was likely to back this proposed timetable.

Streeting said of Burnham Monday: “We could spend the summer exaggerating small differences, or we can roll up our sleeves and help him to deliver the change our Party and our country needs. That is the choice that I am making and I hope that everyone else will back Andy, too.”

Starmer bows out

The dramatic change in the U.K.’s political scene comes after Burnham decisively beat the right-wing Reform UK in a special election in the northern English Makerfield seat, allowing him a route back in to parliament to challenge Starmer. The scale of Burnham’s win in Makerfield significantly boosted his momentum — and dashed Starmer’s hopes of fighting on in the job.

Since coming to office with a commanding House of Commons majority in 2024, Starmer’s Labour government has repeatedly struggled to gain momentum. It suffered huge losses to Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK in local elections, has been hit by multiple scandals, and Starmer has U-turned on a series of key policies in the face of pressure from his own ranks.

“The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election,” Starmer said outside No.10 Downing Street Monday, after reeling off his achievements as opposition leader and then in office.

“I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question, and I accept that answer with good grace. Every decision I’ve taken has been about putting the country I love first. That is why I will resign as leader of the Labour party.”

Legacy

It’s a far cry from Starmer’s record in opposition. He took the reins of the Labour Party after its worst-ever general election defeat under leftist leader Jeremy Corbyn, and ended 14 years out of government by leaping forward to eclipse the Conservatives in a single parliamentary term.

Talking up his record, the outgoing prime minister said he had inherited a Labour Party that was “politically, financially and morally bankrupt.”

“We changed our party, ripping out the poison of anti-Semitism, restoring trust on the economy, defense and national security, and becoming a party that once again stood proudly with, not against, our national flag,” he said.

Britain now has an “economy that is stronger, growing faster than our peers” and “wages rising faster than inflation,” he added.

His voice cracking with emotion, Starmer told the crowd he was leaving “the biggest job in the country” to focus on “being the best husband I can to my fantastic wife Vic, who has been a rock by my side through good times and bad, and being the best dad I can to my beautiful children, who are my pride and my joy.”

Starmer’s most loyal allies watched on as he gave his Downing Street statement.

Among them were Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy, Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones and Attorney General Richard Hermer. 

Jenny Chapman, the international development minister who helped Starmer win the Labour leadership six years ago, was also there. 

June 18, 2026

The worst foreign policy blunder in decades..... And that is the GOP talking

Top Republican decries Trump’s Iran deal: ‘Reagan is rolling over in his grave’

Senator Bill Cassidy attacks ‘worst foreign policy blunder in decades’ while others in his party skeptical over peace deal

Marina Dunbar

A handful of Senate Republicans have sharply criticized the agreement Donald Trump reached with Iran, accusing the administration of committing “the worst foreign policy blunder in decades”.

On Wednesday, the Trump administration released the text of an interim deal between Washington and Tehran to end the 110-day conflict, framing it as a “major win” for the US – even as the 14-point accord made significant political and financial concessions to Iran to reopen the strait of Hormuz and prevent a “worldwide depression”.

“Reagan is rolling over in his grave,” the Republican senator Bill Cassidy declared, in a statement posted on X.

“Iran’s nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future,” the outgoing Louisiana senator wrote. “Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal.”

Senior administration officials said the deal would help prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, pointing to a concession in the MOU in which Iran sats its enriched uranium stockpile “will be destroyed” through “down-blending”. But critics argue that the deal achieves less than the one Barack Obama negotiated with Iran in 2015.

“Before the war, the strait was open, Iran was being crushed by sanctions, and 13 service members were still alive,” Cassidy said. “Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped. This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades.”

Cassidy lost his primary last month when voters in Louisiana opted instead to advance two challengers to a runoff election after an extraordinary intervention by Trump to oust the incumbent. Trump has publicly feuded with Cassidy for years, after the Republican senator voted in favor of Trump’s impeachment after the January 6 insurrection.

Before the Louisiana Senate primary election, Trump repeatedly disparaged Cassidy on social media, calling him “a disloyal disaster”.

The Republican senator Ted Cruz, who previously voiced reservations about a potential Iran deal, said in an interview with the conservative outlet the Daily Wire that he hoped to see more details, but said elements of what is currently public appeared “ill-advised”.

“What has been released so far suggests that, unfortunately, the president is getting, I think, very poor advice when it comes to this deal,” Cruz said. “History teaches that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is a bad idea.”

The Republican senator Lindsey Graham, one of Trump’s most vocal congressional allies, said in the immediate aftermath of the deal’s announcement he was “somewhat concerned that Iran’s view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiating team is claiming”.

On Wednesday, Graham seemed to take a less skeptical view of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) following a “very lengthy and productive” conversation with the US special envoy Steve Witkoff.

“After this discussion, it is my opinion that signing the MOU will be beneficial to the United States, in as much as the strait of Hormuz will begin to open, and the hostilities with Iran will stop,” Graham wrote on social media.

“Whether or not the United States can reach an acceptable, verifiable deal with Iran regarding its nuclear program and other issues is yet to be determined, but I see little downside to trying.”

Vice-President JD Vance, who has maintained a complicated but publicly supportive stance on the war, responded to the post by thanking Graham for his statement.

The Republican senator Thom Tillis said it was “concerning” that the Trump administration is considering a $300bn fund for Iran as part of the agreement.

“I’m hearing a $300bn number and that’s concerning to me, so I just need the details,” Tillis told MS Now reporters on Wednesday. “I also need to know the methodology. I’m not interested in just an agreement that gets us through two and a half years, which is how much longer this administration lasts.”

The MOU, officially signed by the presidents of both sides on Wednesday, gives both sides 60 days to negotiate a comprehensive final agreement.

The conflict with Iran has cost thousands of lives and devastated the world economy, prompting a handful of Republicans to break with Trump on the issue. Earlier this month, the House of Representatives voted 215 to 208 in favor of the war powers resolution, as four Republicans voted with Democrats to curb Trump’s authority in Iran.

Trump defended his ceasefire deal on Wednesday at the G7 summit, further promising that if Iran misbehaved he would “go back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head”.

Two pieces of bread filled with shit and covered in vomit would be better...

A Bad Iran Deal and the Price of Credibility

By Yoni Michanie

The Iran Deal Won’t Buy America Security. It Will Cost It: Proponents of the emerging nuclear agreement with Iran have settled on a convenient argument: the American-Israeli alliance functions as long as interests diverge, and we have reached that point. Washington, they insist, is more secure with this deal than without it. 

It is a seductive argument. It is also wrong.

What We Know Right Now Looks Like a Mistake

The full text of this agreement has not yet been made public. But the architecture of what is being negotiated is already visible, and what it reveals is not a strategic realignment in America’s favor, but a willingness by the Trump administration to legitimize the Islamic Republic, guarantee its survival, and acquiesce to a regime currently celebrating its ability to coerce the world’s most powerful nation into diplomatic submission. 

Tehran did not come to the table from a position of weakness. It came having weaponized the Strait of Hormuz, having absorbed American and Israeli firepower, and having demonstrated to its own people and to the world that it could force Washington to blink.

That is not the backdrop of a deal that advances American interests. That is the backdrop of a capitulation dressed in diplomatic language, and the distinction matters enormously for what comes next.

The Islamic Republic is not celebrating because it made painful concessions. It is celebrating because it didn’t have to. Whatever technical constraints ultimately appear in the agreement’s text, the strategic signal has already been sent. A regime that was supposed to be brought to its knees through maximum pressure, military strikes, and international isolation has instead emerged with its government intact, its narrative validated, and its leverage confirmed. Its leaders will tell their population, and every regional actor watching, that they faced down the Americans and won. In the currency of Middle Eastern geopolitics, that is worth more than any centrifuge agreement.

A Bad Deal 

Consider what this deal will yield in practice, regardless of the fine print.

In an international system where power dictates state interests and alignment, Trump’s desperation to secure a deal that gives a clear pathway to the Islamic Regime’s survival, even at the expense of abandoning Israel and Gulf states pounded by Iranian ballistic missiles, will push critical Gulf partners towards Tehran. Normalization between the Gulf and Israel, one of the most consequential strategic developments of the past decade, becomes harder to sustain when Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are left to draw their own conclusions about where American loyalty ends. These are governments that made calculated bets on Washington’s staying power.

This deal forces them to recalculate. The Palestinian conflict, rather than moving toward resolution, gets prolonged as the regional spoiler most committed to preventing peace has its survival guaranteed. The architecture Washington spent years constructing does not survive a deal that rewards the force most dedicated to dismantling it.

The Real Winners: Russia and China

The beneficiaries extend well beyond the Middle East. Russia and China are major recipients of the spoils of this war. Moscow will be able to sustain and intensify its assault on Ukraine with Iranian-made drones and missiles, unfettered by the pressure campaign that was supposed to degrade Tehran’s capacity to supply them. China’s economy will boom from a resumption of Iranian oil at a fraction of the market price.

This inevitably charts a path toward prolonged war in Ukraine and a sharp increase in aggressive posturing toward Taiwan. A deal that stabilizes Iran on these terms does not stabilize the world. It redistributes leverage to every actor invested in seeing American power contract, and those actors are already aware of what they have been handed.

A Credibility Problem

Then there is the question of credibility, the most durable currency in international relations and the hardest to recover once spent.

Trump’s willingness to pave a path for Iran to restore its proxy terror infrastructure, its ballistic missile program, and an undeterred nuclear ambition will make clear to adversaries and allies alike that Washington no longer has the will to uphold its security commitments.

This erosion was already visible before negotiations concluded. When Iranian ballistic missiles struck Kuwait’s international airport, the Trump administration’s response was to minimize it, characterizing the attack as too limited in scale to warrant an American reply. Gulf partners noted that silence carefully. A regime that can bomb a civilian airport in a neighboring country and receive no response from Washington has learned something important about the boundaries of American resolve, and it will test those boundaries again.

One thing should be made clear. The error was not in launching this war against Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. It was in failing to see it through, in succumbing to short-term pressure points like the World Cup, marginal increases in oil prices, and the shadow of midterm elections. These are not strategic calculations. They are political reflexes, and the Islamic Republic reads them with precision.

The argument that American and Israeli interests have simply diverged mistakes a failure of nerve for a realignment of strategy. Washington is not more secure because it chose accommodation over resolve. It is more exposed, and so is every partner who wagered that American commitments would mean something when it counted most.

Failure to overcome this pressure will result in short-term silence. It will make our world more dangerous.

His deal with Iran is bad... This shows he is insane...

Trump knows his deal with Iran is bad. His G7 speech made that clear

Story by Holly Baxter

If you’d like to know how Donald Trump’s closing speech at the G7 went, it’s probably best to start at the part where he asked Scott Bessent whether the stock market was smarter than his Treasury secretary.

“No, sir,” Bessent dutifully replied. He was disagreeing with a notion Trump had just posited, but it was clear from his tone of voice that he didn’t mean to disagree. He was simply trying to make real-time sense of what his boss had just said, which happened to be the semi-coherent and utterly baffling: “The stock market is more brilliant than anybody there is, including people on this stage, apart from me. What do you think, Scott, is the stock market more brilliant than you?”

Yes, sir? No, sir? What, sir? It was clear at that point, just a couple of minutes in, that nobody — including his own team, or perhaps especially his own team — had any idea what Trump was talking about.

This was probably the most alarming Trump appearance to date. He was breathless and incoherent, ill-seeming and off-piste. He spent 32 minutes justifying his deal with Iran to the world before mentioning a single discussion that had taken place among the G7 countries at the summit, and the justifications spoke for themselves.

“This wasn’t a three-month deal,” he declared. “This was years in the making. You know why? Because I was the one who killed General Soleimani.”

Soleimani, who has been dead since 2020, enjoyed repeated cameos throughout the proceedings. Trump called him “a mad genius” and “the boss of Iran,” returning to him again and again like an aging musician who keeps bringing audiences back to his biggest hit because the new material isn’t getting much applause. The implication, of course, was that Soleimani represented a job well done to Trump himself. This deal? Not so much.

Iran’s leadership, Trump explained, had suffered because “their first set of leaders is all gone. Their second set of leaders, all gone. Their third set of leaders is a little bit gone.” That’s not technically “regime change” but it sort of is, he added, if you think about it.

The asides got more and more bizarre.

“Bibi Netanyahu is a good man, by the way — he gets a little excited,” gave way to, “Afghanistan is kissing our ass.”

He thanked Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin for “being very neutral” during the Iran war, then immediately added that people probably wouldn’t like seeing him thank them.

He interrupted himself to swat a fly.

On lifting tariffs on Iran and investment in the region, he was defensive and juvenile: “Like, what are you gonna do, say you can never invest in a country?... We did $2 trillion of damage. Somebody’s gonna have to help them out.”

On whether it was true that the deal with Iran includes money for the country to rebuild, he started with, “We don’t give them money… What happens is with time, if they behave–” and then seemed to lose his trail of thought and went back to, “Regime change? The first group is dead. One morning they were having breakfast… They thought we’d never bomb during breakfast.”

In the middle of his speech, he took 10 minutes to mention the war in Ukraine, Ebola, the global economy, and his favorite piece of recurring fan fiction: that world leaders repeatedly tell him behind closed doors that they used to laugh at the US, but now it’s “the most respected country in the world.” Then he pivoted swiftly back to Iran, musing, “If they don’t behave, they’ll get hit again.”

It was hardly Churchill at Yalta.

The recurring villain of his piece was the media, which supposedly are all in a grand conspiracy to ignore or devalue his personal victories. “If they said ‘Praise be to Allah, Donald Trump is the greatest president ever’... then the New York Times would say ‘Iran had a great victory’,” he said, during a long segment about fake news.

When it came to questions, one reporter mentioned that the wording of the deal doesn’t actually seem to say much about not developing a nuclear weapon, despite Trump’s claims that it will ensure the country never has one, “permanently”. Trump responded that so long as America doesn’t have a “weak, pathetic president,” then Iran definitely won’t have nuclear bombs, because when they start developing them, he’ll just flatten their cities again.

“So you’ll bomb if they don’t comply, but there’s nothing specific in the deal, is that correct?” the reporter followed up.

“Doesn’t have to be,” Trump responded. Because why would a deal that stops Iran from developing a nuclear weapon in terms much more stringent and powerful than “Barack Hussein Obama” ever allowed make explicit mention of nuclear weapons? Below the bombast and the egotism, the impression that the president seemed to give was: I don’t know and I’m tired. Words don’t have to mean things, because bombs exist. Anyway, it all leads back to me, and once I’m out of picture, do you really think I give a crap?

Besides the other, worrying things this might imply about the 80-year-old’s ailing health, this speech also made extremely clear that Donald Trump himself doesn’t think he actually got a good deal.

But hey, remember General Soleimani?!

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Trump faces bipartisan criticism over Iran deal... Stupid fucker...

Facing bipartisan criticism of Iran deal, Trump lashes out at "fools"

Story by Mark Osborne

Trump faces bipartisan criticism over Iran deal: "It's going to leave Iran stronger"

President Trump slammed the "fools" who oppose terms of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding as "either jealous, bad people, or stupid" after several Republican lawmakers spoke out strongly against the deal.

"These fools, who think I haven't been tough enough on Iran, when the Stock Market Just Hit A RECORD HIGH, and Oil prices are 'tumbling' down, are either jealous, bad people, or stupid," Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social early Thursday as he returned from the G7 summit.

Louisiana Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy came out most strongly against the Iran deal, saying Ronald Reagan is "rolling over in his grave."

"Iran's nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future," Cassidy wrote on X. "Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal. Before the war, the strait was open, Iran was being crushed by sanctions, and 13 service members were still alive." 

"Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped," he continued. "This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades."

Cassidy has stepped up his criticism of Mr. Trump after losing his primary race to Trump-endorsed candidates Julia Letlow and John Fleming, who now face a runoff. The president repeatedly slammed Cassidy, who was one of just seven Republicans to vote to impeach Mr. Trump over the Jan. 6 attack. 

Trump ally Sen. Ted Cruz is also among the critics of the Iran deal. Cruz told the Daily Wire he thinks the president is getting "very poor advice when it comes to this deal."

"History teaches that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is a bad idea," the Texas Republican said. "Under the terms of what's been released, somewhere between $10 billion and $30 billion will flow to the Ayatollah immediately before they make even a single nuclear concession."

"I think that's ill-advised," Cruz continued. "That money, if it goes to the ayatollah, will go to fund terrorists trying to kill Americans and weapons that will be used to try to kill Americans. And it also appears to formalize a permanent role for the Islamic regime controlling the Strait of Hormuz. It is difficult to see what possible benefit to America could come from that."

Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally who has previously advocated not making any deal and restarting military action against Iran, gave tepid endorsement of the deal after he said he spoke to Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff.

"After this discussion, it is my opinion that signing the MOU will be beneficial to the United States, in as much as the Strait of Hormuz will begin to open, and the hostilities with Iran will stop," Graham wrote on X. "Whether or not the United States can reach an acceptable, verifiable deal with Iran regarding its nuclear program and other issues is yet to be determined, but I see little downside to trying.   

"The economic stability that comes from opening up the Strait and the cessation of hostilities could create a pathway to peace well beyond the Iranian conflict."

Republican Sen. Thom Tillis said he's hoping for more details than just the brief 14-point plan released on Wednesday, calling it "inadequate."

"If I'm ultimately asked by the administration to judge it on the basis of the 14 points that we know, then it will not be a good assessment," Tillis said during an Atlantic Council event on the upcoming NATO summit.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters at the Capitol on Thursday he anticipates the administration will brief senators on the Iran agreement early next week. 

"My understanding is the quote 'official language' is coming out today, but yeah, we have a request in," Thune said. "I assume once they do the initial briefing on it that we'll have folks up here. We've asked them to do that. I would anticipate probably early next week."

Thune called the deal "good for Americans," citing the potential economic relief if the strait reopens. He also noted the "long-term" issues remain "unresolved." 

Democratic senators, like Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, of New York, have been united in their disdain for the deal.

"When you look at the 14 points that the administration has agreed to, it looks like Iran has won on just about every one of them," Schumer told reporters on Capitol Hill. "Trump has done a very poor job of negotiating. We are worse off than we were when the war started. The Strait of Hormuz under greater Iranian control now than then. The leadership of Iran more militant now than then. ... This will be regarded as one of the biggest American disasters."

Connecticut Sen. Richard Blumenthal called it a "seemingly disgraceful deal" and said it looks "like an unconditional surrender, not for Iran, but for the U.S."

"Contrary to the president's promises, this capitulation is not by Iran, seemingly, it is by the United States in lifting sanctions, providing hundreds of billions of dollars that can be used to support proxies. The absence of any kind of regime change, and an economic windfall for this regime, strengthening it," said Blumenthal, who added he believes the agreement must be approved by the Senate as the Constitution outlines for international treaties.

"Anybody advocating for it is going to need flame-resistant body armor, because it will meet with bipartisan condemnation when it reaches Congress, as it must do, because it has all the appearances of a treaty," he said.