Delay and urges

White House addresses possible China trip delay and urges more help with Strait of Hormuz

By Kit Maher

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters today that President Donald Trump’s trip to China later this month could be delayed and emphasized the administration’s view that countries should be stepping up to help in the Strait of Hormuz.

“There’s a possibility the trip could be delayed. We’ll keep you posted on that, but these are leader-to-leader conversations that are happening, so as soon as we have an update, we’ll provide the new dates,” Leavitt said.

Reiterating Trump’s call for China and NATO allies to join him in helping reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Leavitt argued they are benefiting from the United States’ military action in Iran.

Yet, so far, no countries have committed to sending warships to the area.

“I think the president is absolutely right to call on these countries to do more to help the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, so that we can stop this terrorist regime from restricting the free flow of energy,” Leavitt said. “The fact that they are doing so just underscores why President Trump needed to take this action in the first place.”

Pressed again on the China trip, Leavitt said the White House would provide updates as soon as they have them.

“It’s a leader-to-leader conversation. At this point, the president looks forward to visiting China. The dates may be moved. As commander in chief, it’s his number one priority right now to ensure the continued success of this ‘Operation Epic Fury.’ So, we’ll keep you posted on the dates as soon as we can,” she said.

OK... Will do...

A look at NATO, the defensive alliance Trump is calling on to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

By Catherine Nicholls

US President Donald Trump has warned that NATO faces a “very bad” future if countries in the alliance fail to assist in securing the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway currently mostly blocked by Iran.

Members of the defense alliance were quick to respond, with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas saying that the request is “out of NATO’s area of action” and a German government spokesperson saying that the war “has nothing to do with NATO.”

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was established in 1949 after World War II, and its purpose is to “secure a lasting peace in Europe and North America, based on its member countries’ common values of individual liberty, democracy, human rights and the rule of law,” its website says.

The alliance’s “most fundamental principle” is what it calls “collective defense,” meaning that if one NATO member country is attacked, the alliance considers it an attack on every NATO country.

This collective defense, described under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, is triggered when a member country comes under “armed attack” and that country requests collective action as a respose.

Article 6 of the treaty “imposes geographic limitations on the scope of NATO’s mutual assistance obligation, primarily limiting it to the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.”

The first and only time Article 5 has been invoked was in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the US; as a result, NATO allies joined the invasion of Afghanistan.

Catch up

Strikes continue in Iran, as Israel expands ground operation in Lebanon

By Catherine Nicholls

We’ve been bringing you reporting on ongoing strikes in the Middle East, with attacks seen in Iran, Lebanon and the United Arab Emirates.

Israel has expanded a ground operation in Lebanon, it said, in order to “remove threats” and protect the residents of northern Israel. It is also continuing to attack Iran.

Catch up on the latest here:

• Iran: Thick black plumes of smoke could be seen rising over Iran’s capital Tehran in the early hours of this morning, as Iranian state media reported large booms in the capital. The Israeli military said it had begun a wave of strikes targeting infrastructure in Tehran this morning. People there have described feeling “suffocated and frustrated.”
• Lebanon: Israel launched an expanded ground operation in southern Lebanon, Defense Minister Israel Katz said, adding that “hundreds of thousands” of residents who have been evacuated or are evacuating “will not return to areas south of the Litani (river) until the safety of residents (of northern Israel) is assured.”
• UAE: One person was killed after a missile landed on a vehicle in Abu Dhabi, the city’s media office said. An “advanced fire” broke out in the country’s Fujairah petroleum industrial zone after it was targeted in a drone attack, the Fujairah Media Office said. Flights were also temporarily suspended at Dubai International Airport after a fuel tank nearby caught fire during a “drone-related incident” early this morning.

Sure....

Israel says it has destroyed Iran's space and satellite center

By Dana Karni and Ivana Kottasová

Israel said today that it “destroyed” a compound used by Iran’s military to develop space capabilities.

Israel Defense Forces said the building, in central Tehran, was used to “develop military space programs,” including the Chamran-1 satellite which was launched by Iran in 2024.

Photos circulating on social media showed apparent damage to the Tarasht Space Research Institute in Tehran.

You think????????

Pakistani oil tankers cross Strait of Hormuz amid signs Iran may be allowing select shipments

By Sophia Saifi

Three Pakistani oil tankers have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the past ten days, according to Pakistani shipping sources and ship-tracking data, suggesting Iran may be granting safe passage for some oil shipments.

The latest Pakistani tanker to cross the strait was the ‘Karachi,’ one of the sources, from the Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC), told CNN on the condition of anonymity.

It is “very likely” that safe passage has been “coordinated with the Iranians,” the source said.

Ship tracking data from MarineTraffic showed that the oil tanker transited through the strait on Sunday evening, hugging the Iranian coastline.

MarineTraffic said the tanker was sailing within Iran’s exclusive economic zone and broadcasting its automatic identification system (AIS) signal, “suggesting that select shipments may be receiving negotiated safe passage.”

Qamar Cheema, the executive director of the Sanober Institute, a research organization in Islamabad, told CNN that one can “safely assume” that Pakistan used its diplomatic channels for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to get a deal for its vessels to pass through.

Iran “understands Pakistan’s economic concerns,” and it is unlikely that Islamabad had to make any concessions to Iran due to the “state and societal level support for Iran from Pakistan,” he said.

CNN has reached out to the Pakistani foreign ministry for comment.

Iran has repeatedly said the strait is only blocked for traffic from its enemies and their allies.

On Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi praised Pakistan on X, extending his “heartfelt gratitude” for Pakistan’s “full-throated expression of solidarity and support” for Iran.

On Thursday, Pakistan’s foreign ministry said Islamabad has “an open channel of communication” with Iran.

Ha Ha....

US officials seek to rally support for coalition to secure Strait of Hormuz

By Kevin Liptak

US officials spent much of the weekend working to rally support behind President Donald Trump’s demand that other countries assist in securing the Strait of Hormuz and hope to announce a new coalition in the coming days, according to people familiar with the matter.

Who that coalition consists of, and when it might be announced, remain open questions. Even staunch US allies sound cautious about sending their militaries into the contested waterway while an active war is underway.

Still, US officials said they hope to at least receive preliminary commitments of support for securing the strait, even if countries leave the specifics — such as what ships are deployed and when — to a later date.

Trump himself spoke on Sunday evening with Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer but the call did not result in the immediate announcement of British assets heading toward the strait.

Trump is expected to have additional conversations as the week goes on. He’ll host Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Thursday for her first White House visit since being elected.

But she, too, has remained noncommittal about sending Japanese war ships to the strait.

Administration officials still say they expect the war with Iran to last four to six weeks, meaning at least another two weeks remain. While the US and Israel have found success in wiping out much of Iran’s missile arsenal, its air defenses and its navy, the hardline regime remains in power and continues to demonstrate an ability to threaten its neighbors and disrupt global energy trade.

European officials said one of their fears is that Trump will declare victory in Iran in the coming weeks and leave them to patrol the strait afterward. There was virtually no attempt to gain buy-in from US allies before the war began.

But they also recognize the need to manage the situation carefully, wary of alienating Trump at a moment another conflict – the war in Ukraine – appears on a precipice.

Oil futures market

US treasury secretary: No plan for administration to intervene in oil futures market

By David Goldman

For several weeks, rumors have persisted that the Trump administration would initiate some kind of intervention in the oil futures market to reduce prices, although it was unclear exactly how that might work.

But US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said today there is no such plan.

“We haven’t done that,” Bessent said in an interview with CNBC from Paris, adding he wasn’t sure “under what authority or what auspices” the US government would have to intervene in the markets.

The treasury secretary acknowledged that between 10 million and 14 million barrels of daily oil supply have been cut off from the world because of Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But he noted that some oil tankers are getting through, including Indian and Iranian vessels, which Bessent said the US Navy was allowing to pass. He argued supplying the global market was good for prices overall.

Bessent said concerns about food shortages and another inflation crisis were overdone. Oil would be “much lower” than $80 a barrel in a couple months, he said, down from around $100 a barrel today.

“Let’s just be clear here: It’s two weeks; it’s two weeks,” Bessent said about the war’s timeframe so far. “This will end. And I don’t know how many weeks it will be, but on the other side of this, the world will be safer and we will be better supplied.”

Oil is on its way....

Emergency oil is on its way. So why are oil prices still high?

By Hanna Ziady

Last week, the member countries of the International Energy Agency, including the United States, agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their reserves. But global oil prices have stayed high.

That’s because Tehran’s near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz means that some 15 million barrels of crude oil and 5 million barrels of oil products are cut off from the global market every day. In other words, 400 million barrels of crude would be absorbed in just 26 days.

“The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the International Energy Agency said in a statement Sunday.

“This emergency collective action, by far the largest ever, provides a significant and welcome buffer. But the most important factor in ensuring a return to stable flows is the resumption of regular transit of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,” the agency added.

It noted that oil stocks from Asia and Oceania would be made available immediately, while those from the Americas and Europe wouldn’t be released until the end of March.

Oil inventories can be released to the market in a variety of ways, including through tenders, loan agreements or direct sales to refiners, according to the agency.

This is what the world gets for letting FUCKING STUPID americans to vote...

Thanks to Trump, Petro-Imperialism Is Back

A leading oil scholar breaks down the historic blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and how the president’s campaign against Venezuela relates to Iran.

Alex Nguyen

Following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran beginning in late February, Iran has effectively halted all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint in the Persian Gulf through which about 20 percent of global crude oil and natural gas flows. Many Americans are now experiencing the effects: skyrocketing gas prices. That’s not likely to change any time soon.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) shared his observations on social media Tuesday that the Trump administration had “no plan” on how to respond.

Did the Trump administration ever really have a plan? To try to answer that question, and its ramifications, I spoke with Jeff Colgan, a political science professor and Director of the Climate Solutions Lab the Watson Institute for Public and International Affairs at Brown University. He’s written extensively about the role of oil in international politics and war, and how it impacts energy and the environment.

What is the Strait of Hormuz? 

The Strait of Hormuz is the most important chokepoint in the world, particularly for oil and natural gas. So this is absolutely the nightmare scenario that many risk analysts have been worrying about for decades.

Although this region has seen a lot of warfare over the decades, the tanker flows [to transport crude oil] have managed to continue. Often, the combatants on both sides want the flow of oil to continue because at least one of the sides are profiting from it.

So this does put us in uncharted waters where the Strait of Hormuz gets bottled up in a modern context.

Why is the Strait of Hormuz bottled up right now?

Because the US attacked Iran and Iran has no viable counter strategy to strike back at the US. In some sense, this is an extreme step by Iran, but they feel like they have no other choice. Their leadership is wiped out, and they’re fighting for their lives. 

So in this war, unlike others, they are using their full capacity to lash out in every direction, including all of the US military bases that are located in the region—in Bahrain, UAE, and Qatar especially. Iran was also in a difficult “use it or lose it” situation with their missiles because the US bombing campaign was directed toward destroying missiles to make sure they couldn’t use them. 

Iran has long avoided closing the Strait of Hormuz because Iran’s own oil has flowed through it and they don’t want to cut off their only revenue source. But their backs are to the wall.

It seems like the Trump administration started the war in Iran without a plan for the Strait of Hormuz. What are your thoughts on the administration’s handling of the situation?

It is shocking and, frankly, appalling how little planning and foresight the White House has brought to the situation. The poor planning of the war appears to be on many issues, including many Americans who are in Gulf countries, munitions, etc. 

It’s striking because it seems like they have tried to walk back from the situation on Monday and say, “We’re going to wrap this war up quickly.”

How do you see the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz from a historical perspective? 

I have been writing for a couple months now about the Trump administration’s return to what I call “petro-imperialism”—the idea that the US, prior to 1973 would intervene in global oil markets in support of American oil companies and use force like the 1953 coup in Iran backed by the CIA when Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh nationalized oil. 

This happened in multiple countries: “We’re going to select your political leader, and if you don’t pick the right one, we’re going to get rid of them.” 

In Trump’s rhetoric, with regard to Venezuela, especially, but also with Iran, we see echoes of that.

What do you think is the immediate impact on oil and trade?

One thing we saw in the 1980s was the so-called Tanker War between Iran and Iraq. Tankers are resilient to being hit by missiles so it is possible to keep the flow of oil going during the war. But this warfare has changed. Drone technology [in Iran] is untested waters. 

It’s striking to see how even oil markets reacted very strongly on Monday, bringing the oil price way back down, because the president signaled that we wanted to keep the war from getting out of hand. But it’s not like oil markets always get it right either. 

There’s real uncertainty on how long it will take to restore the flow of oil when statements like the one today from Saudi Aramco [the national oil company of Saudi Arabia] saying that if the situation doesn’t stop very soon, the effects will be “catastrophic.” 

On Tuesday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright made an announcement on X that the US Navy escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, oil prices plunged and stocks jumped. But shortly after, the post was deleted. Is this mixed messaging something you’ve come across before?

The fog of war is a problem for all wars, where you have misinformation and uncertainty. On the other hand, the Trump administration has far more inconsistency and incoherence than a typical US administration. There are probably multiple reasons why they are more incoherent, but we can observe how President Trump himself has said conflicting things about the war—that it’s pretty much complete and then demanding unconditional surrender in the next breath.

As someone trying to absorb everything going on in Iran, is there something key that you think we should understand?

We have choices about how we consume energy, and what isn’t spiking right now is the price of sunshine and wind. We should be thinking, as consumers, about the choices that [the U.S. government is] making and the energy security, economic security, and national security consequences. No energy source is perfect and there’s always trade-offs, but renewables have a significant national security advantage in situations like this, where the basic fuel source of fossil fuels can be interrupted by political events. It’s not only wars, but also embargoes, as we saw with Russia and Ukraine and the negotiations with Europe about various flows of fossil fuels. What kind of energy we consume does matter.

70 percent of the new US TikTok’s $14 billion valuation.....

The Trump Administration Will Somehow Make $10 Billion Off the TikTok Deal

The unusually large fee comes after the president brokered the sale of the company’s US operations to investors allied with his administration.

Schuyler Mitchell

The yearslong battle over TikTok’s ownership has concluded in a $10 billion windfall for the Trump administration. On Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that investors in the recently completed deal to create a US-controlled TikTok will pay the government the exorbitant sum for its role in helping broker the transaction. The fee is about 70 percent of the new US TikTok’s $14 billion valuation.

Finalized in January, the TikTok deal concludes a saga that began in 2019, when US politicians began raising alarms about the Chinese-owned app’s potential threat to national security. In 2024, President Joe Biden signed a bipartisan bill that required TikTok’s Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to sell the app or face a ban.

But Trump—despite being the first president to attempt such a ban—made “saving TikTok” one of his focal points in his second term, recognizing the app’s appeal with young voters. Trump’s solution? Transfer ownership of TikTok’s US operations to an American investor group led by one of his billionaire allies, Larry Ellison.

Ellison is the chairman and co-founder of the software giant Oracle, which now holds an ownership stake and board seat in US TikTok. Private equity firm Silver Lake and Emirati artificial intelligence investment company MGX are also lead investors, while ByteDance retains a 19.9 percent stake, the most permitted by law.

Critics have raised concerns that the Trump-brokered TikTok sale would enrich the president’s allies. Ellison—one of the richest men in the world—hosted a $100,000-per-person fundraising dinner for Trump in 2020. His son, David, has used his recent acquisition of Paramount Skydance as an opportunity to push CBS News to the right. (The Ellison family might soon add CNN to its media empire, a prospect that seems to thrill the Trump administration. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently crowed to reporters, “The sooner David Ellison takes over that network, the better.”) MGX, meanwhile, has used the Trump family’s World Liberty cryptocurrency to make a hefty investment in the crypto exchange Binance.

Now, with this $10 billion fee, it’s clear that the TikTok arrangement will be mutually beneficial. As the Journal reports, for advising on similar deals, investment bankers typically receive fees of less than 1 percent of the transaction value. Bank of America, for instance, is receiving $130 million for advising a $71.5 billion Norfolk Southern deal. That’s one of the largest transaction fees on record for a bank—and still remarkably lower than the Trump administration’s payout.

Administration officials told the Journal that the fee accurately reflects Trump’s role in preserving TikTok’s US operations while addressing lawmakers’ security concerns. When reached by the New York Times, spokespeople for Oracle, MGX and Silver Lake either declined to comment or did not respond.