Ohio poll

Trump edges Kasich in Ohio poll

By Nick Gass

Donald Trump leads John Kasich by five points in the governor's home state of Ohio, according to the results of the latest Quinnipiac University poll of likely Republican primary voters released Tuesday.

With 31 percent, Trump leads the field ahead of the state's March 15 primary, while Kasich comes in a close second with 26 percent. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz followed with 21 percent, with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (13 percent) and Ben Carson (5 percent) rounding out the final five candidates. Just 5 percent said they are undecided about their candidate among those choices.

The poll, which was conducted between last Tuesday and Saturday, includes the second choice of supporters of Jeb Bush, who suspended his campaign after a disappointing finish in the South Carolina primary. The numbers — though close, and likely subject to many twists and turns between now and March 15 — are a blow to Kasich, who is hoping a triumph in his home state's winner-take-all primary will propel him to the nomination.

Trump and Cruz are competitive among those identifying as members of the tea party, white, born-again evangelical Christians and those describing themselves as very conservative, within the margin of error. Kasich, meanwhile, is down one point to Trump among moderates and liberals in his state, and down three points among those who described themselves as somewhat conservative.

Among men, Trump holds a nine-point advantage over Kasich (35 percent to 26 percent), while the two are virtually tied among women. For those who hold a college degree, Kasich is the top choice of 35 percent, compared to 22 percent for Trump. For those without a college degree, Trump is the top candidate of 36 percent, while Kasich follows with 23 percent.

Overall, 60 percent of voters said they have firmly decided on their candidate, while 38 percent said they might change their mind. Trump supporters are more set on their choice, with 78 percent saying they have settled on the Manhattan businessman. About 62 percent of Cruz supporters said they have decided to support the Texas senator, but only 50 percent of Kasich backers say they are fully committed, with another 48 percent saying they could be persuaded to change.

Quinnipiac's previous poll of Ohio Republicans, published on Oct. 7 when the GOP field was much larger, also showed Trump leading Kasich, 23 percent to 13 percent — along with 18 percent for Carson, 11 percent for Cruz, and 7 percent for Rubio.

“I will beat Donald Trump in Ohio. I mean, it’s all within the margin of error. We’ll be fine in Ohio,” Kasich told Fox News on Tuesday morning when the poll was mentioned. However, Trump leads Kasich just slightly outside of the margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

On the Democratic side of the race, Hillary Clinton holds a 15-point lead over Bernie Sanders, in a state she won by eight points in 2008. Overall, the former secretary of state picked up 55 percent in the latest poll to 40 percent for Sanders. The Vermont senator holds advantages over Clinton among those who said they were very or somewhat liberal, while Clinton holds a 35-point lead among those who said they are moderate or conservative. Roughly seven in 10 overall said they are committed to their candidate.

The poll was conducted Feb. 16-20 via landlines and cellphones, surveying 759 likely Republican primary voters. Among the 518 likely Democratic primary voters surveyed, the margin of error is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.