Super Tuesday surprise

Bernie bears down for Super Tuesday surprise

State party chairs and local officials say the Vermont senator is within striking distance of Hillary Clinton in at least 5 states.

By Hanna Trudo

Don’t count out Bernie Sanders yet.

Despite the grim outlook for the South Carolina primary Saturday, interviews with over a dozen state Democratic party chairs and local officials in Super Tuesday states suggest Sanders is within striking distance of Hillary Clinton in at least five of the 11 contests that will take place on March 1.

He’s certain to win his home state of Vermont, where polls show he’s leading by a blowout margin. Other recent surveys show Sanders with a slight lead in Massachusetts and within a few points of Clinton in Oklahoma. In both Colorado and Minnesota, the two caucus states that are the centerpiece of his Super Tuesday strategy, Democratic party officials acknowledge the campaigns are neck and neck.

“I think it’s too close to tell,” said Ken Martin, chairman of Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and a Clinton supporter. “I’ve worked on a lot of presidential campaigns over the years. What will happen here in Minnesota will be dictated by what happens in these early states.”

A solid performance in the 11 states voting on March 1 could have a catalytic effect on Sanders, fueling his momentum and fundraising after a rough patch. But an across-the-board drubbing next Tuesday — on the heels of his Nevada loss and an expected loss in South Carolina — could also bury the Vermont senator and generate a partywide chorus for him to get out of the race.

Either way, the number — and the demographic makeup — of states where Sanders defeats Clinton and the number of delegates he picks up will go a long way toward shaping the post-Super Tuesday narrative.

Like Clinton, Sanders begins with one lock-down state, according to party officials: Vermont. His home state is Bernie Country, with recent polls showing he has support from at least 75 percent of state Democrats.

In Arkansas, where Clinton served as the state’s first lady while her husband served as governor, it’s the same story: Hillary by a mile.

One reason is that local Democrats still feel a connection to the Clintons more than two decades after the family left Little Rock. By Arkansas Democratic Party chairman Vincent Insalaco’s count, Hillary Clinton has been to Arkansas three times since last summer — with another visit scheduled for Sunday — while Bill Clinton has been known to come once or twice per month to the state that’s home to his presidential library.

“It’s a no-brainer here,” said Insalaco, who is also a superdelegate for Clinton. “It’s not even a question.”

For Sanders, Colorado and Minnesota might prove to be the most important states on March 1. His caucus-oriented March strategy puts a premium on sweeping both states — senior Sanders aides have viewed the two caucuses as central to his path to the nomination since before the Vermont senator announced his candidacy last spring.

At the moment, party officials in the two states agree that he is in a position to win.

“I think it’s fair to say it’s a fairly split group we’re going to see next Tuesday,” said Rick Palacio, the Colorado Democratic Party chairman. “This is going to be a competitive caucus. We have supporters of Hillary and Bernie who are going to show up fully energized.”

“Bernie has a lot of organic energy in this state,” said Martin, the Minnesota DFL chairman. “There seems to be a lot of support for Sanders on the ground.”

Two other states show promise for Sanders — Massachusetts, where he held a crowded rally Monday evening, and Oklahoma, where he held an even bigger rally on Wednesday.

In Massachusetts, the state’s Democratic establishment has lined up behind Clinton, but Sanders has a foothold with the progressive grass roots. As the senator from a neighboring state, Sanders isn’t exactly a stranger — especially after his campaign purchased $5.2 million in ads on Boston TV during the New Hampshire primary. An Emerson College Polling Society poll released Sunday showed Clinton and Sanders dead even; a Public Policy Polling poll last week put Sanders ahead by 7 percentage points.

Oklahoma is more opaque. In the few public polls released there, Clinton has been held below 50 percent. The latest polling data from PPP showed her leading by just 2 points, earning 46 percent to Sanders’ 44 percent.

“My sense is that it would be a close race. It wouldn’t surprise me if there were only 5 or 6 percentage points that separate them,” said Mark Hammons, a lawyer who was elected chairman of the Oklahoma Democratic Party in May 2015. “Someone who wants something completely new wants Bernie Sanders, and people who are looking for the résumé for the job are looking more closely at Hillary.

“The net result of that is I think it’s very competitive,” he said.

Hammons, like a number of state party chairs, explained that the Clinton organization began taking shape a few months ahead of her rival’s, and follows a more structured, traditional campaign model. Sanders’ campaign has evolved from the ground up, he said, and there was evidence of that Wednesday at an energetic rally in Tulsa that attracted nearly 7,000 people, according to the Sanders campaign.

The Super Tuesday states where Sanders appears to be in the hunt have one thing in common: The population of African-Americans is relatively low. In all five states where he is best-positioned to win, the percentage of African-Americans is in single digits.

That inability to gain traction with minority voters is why Clinton allies have long contended that Super Tuesday would be the expiration date for the Sanders campaign. Clinton leads by comfortable margins in the polls in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia — all states where the African-American percentage of the population is in double-digits.

“The diversity issue really plays big in Texas,” said Gilberto Hinojosa, chairman of the Texas Democratic Party.

In delegate-rich Texas, where the Hispanic population is 39 percent, Clinton has picked up support from much of the state Democratic leadership. She’s also benefiting from residual goodwill from 2008, when she won the popular vote against Barack Obama.

“There’s still a strong connection to her in the community. They don’t know Bernie,” said Hinojosa, whose daughter works on Clinton’s campaign. “It’s very difficult if not impossible for Sen. Sanders.”

Hinojosa also points to the state’s sheer size, which makes it difficult for previously little-known insurgents like Sanders to make a mark.

“Texas is huge. Geographically and population,” he said. “For anybody to be able to run a campaign, it requires an enormous amount of resources. Bernie has a huge hurdle to overcome.”

In Alabama, where the only recent public poll showed Sanders trailing by 28 points, Clinton has a critical endorsement from the influential Alabama Democratic Conference, which is essentially the African-American wing of the state party, a high degree of name recognition and a big head start on the ground.

Nancy Worley, chairwoman of the Alabama Democratic Party, wasn’t ready to write off Sanders’ chances, however.

“Overall, it has the potential to be a close race,” she said. “Hillary came in strong at first, had a strong ground game, big presence, but was inaccessible. Bernie is a much more accessible candidate in that capacity.”

Worley says Clinton’s inaccessibility bodes well for Sanders in the South, where voters want to see their candidate up close.

“The South is a very touchy-feely,” she said. “In order for any campaign to be successful in the South, it has to have the Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, shake-your-hand connection.”