10-point lead

Siena: Hochul has 10-point lead over Blakeman in first poll of likely voters

The governor is up by a 49-39 margin, according to the poll.

By Bill Mahoney

Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman by 10 points in a Siena University poll released Wednesday morning, the first major poll of likely voters this election cycle.

Despite her double-digit lead, Hochul is underperforming the Democratic ticket. Her margin compares to a 16-point Democratic edge on the generic congressional ballot.

Siena found that 46 percent of voters view Hochul favorably and 49 percent view her unfavorably. That compares to 43-44 in June.

Blakeman is viewed favorably by 33 percent of likely voters, while 26 percent view him unfavorably. That compares to a 25-21 split in the prior poll.

The head-to-head had Hochul up 49-39. That lead is only half of the 52-32 advantage she had in the June poll of registered voters.

The governor is leading 64-19 in New York City. Blakeman’s up 49-41 in the suburbs. And the two are effectively tied upstate, with the Republican at 46 percent to Hochul’s 45 percent.

“Not surprisingly, both candidates are holding on to their partisan bases, as Hochul leads among Democrats 80-8 and Blakeman leads among Republicans 84-9. Likely independent voters favor Blakeman by a narrow five-point margin, 45-40,” Siena spokesperson Steve Greenberg said.

Hochul had a 14-point lead over Republican challenger Lee Zeldin at this point in 2022; she wound up winning by 6 points. Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo led Republican challenger Marc Molinaro by 22 points in the first poll of likely voters in 2018 — conducted in October in a year when the primary was in September — and wound up winning by 23.

Wednesday’s poll found Democratic Attorney General Letitia James leading Republican challenger Saritha Komatireddy by a 54-36 margin. Democratic Comptroller Tom DiNapoli had a 55-32 advantage over Republican Joseph Hernandez.

Both James and DiNapoli set personal records for their best-ever favorability numbers in a Siena poll. James measured at 52-38, up from 40-32 in April. And DiNapoli clocked in at 42-18, comfortably besting his prior mark of being viewed favorably by 35 percent of voters set in 2014. And while 66 percent of respondents in April didn’t have an opinion on DiNapoli, that number fell to 40 percent in this poll.

Greenberg explained that shift might just be due to a change in methodology. Unlike in prior years, voters were asked about the horse races before their views on specific candidates. So this time around, everybody asked their views on DiNapoli had been reminded that he was a Democrat running for comptroller.

Siena polled on the Democratic Socialists of America for the first time: 30 percent of voters view the group favorably while 47 percent view it unfavorably. It polled at 50-21 among Democrats and 3-82 among Republicans.

DSA member Zohran Mamdani’s favorability polled at 47-44 statewide. Siena pegged his numbers in New York City at 69-24.

One area of bipartisan agreement: Hochul’s one-year moratorium on data centers. Voters approved 52-25, with Democrats backing the idea 61-23 and Republicans supporting it 40-27.

Siena surveyed 811 likely voters from Aug. 3-6. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.