Lose his primary?

Could Andy Ogles lose his primary?

The controversial Tennessee congressman is facing a well-financed opponent in a redrawn district ahead of Thursday's vote.

By Andrew Howard

Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) could become the second Republican with an endorsement from President Donald Trump to lose a primary this week, as the controversial incumbent navigates a newly redrawn district and gob of outside spending against him.

He’s facing a surprisingly strong challenge from former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher.

They’re running in the state’s 5th District, which was recently made redder by the GOP after the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act. But while the new boundaries could help save Republicans in November — the Democratic mayor of Columbia, Tennessee, Chaz Molder, has posted impressive fundraising numbers — it also means Ogles must introduce himself to new voters ahead of the primary.

A super PAC backed by renewable energy executives that launched this year has lobbed $2 million in advertising attacking Ogles, sending his allies on a rescue mission to avoid a stunning upset as he continues to lag in fundraising.

While Hatcher has outraised Ogles, he hasn’t spent a dime of his campaign cash on television, instead focusing on mailers, digital ads and canvassing. But his campaign has been elevated on the airwaves by repeated attacks against Ogles from Invest in Tomorrow Coalition’s super PAC. And on Tuesday, Republican Gov. Bill Lee lent a late endorsement to his former administration official, saying he “has stood with President Trump from day one.”

“The vibes aren’t looking great for him,” said one GOP operative who is not involved in the race, granted anonymity to discuss it candidly. The operative pointed to the new territory of the district and Ogles’ lackluster fundraising as signs that he was vulnerable.

One recent survey commissioned by Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, the group targeting Ogles, found him up 37 percent to 33 percent, with another 30 percent undecided, putting the race within the margin of error with an unusually high number of undecided voters. There has been no public polling of the race.

“Polls haven’t closed yet but this race has already sent a very clear message to politicians in both parties: you will be punished if you stand in the way of America’s energy future,” Invest in Tomorrow Coalition chair Tom Matzzie said in a statement. “We have forced Andy Ogles to call in support from the President of the United States, the Speaker of the House, and hundreds of thousands of dollars in ad spending from a friendly super PAC — all in the hopes of surviving what should have been a shoo-in re-election campaign.”

In a statement, Ogles said he was “being targeted by left-wing liberals from California because I am one of President Trump’s closest allies.”

“They want to stop Trump-endorsed MAGA warriors from delivering for the American people. This desperate attempt to SILENCE me is futile. I will not be silent and I will never stop fighting to put America First,” he continued.

Ogles is vulnerable in part because of a series of controversies. He deleted a homophobic social media post that was denounced by members of his own party in June, and he drew severe backlash for another post where he said “Muslims don’t belong in American society.” In 2024, the FBI searched Ogles’ phone during an investigation into campaign finance records, which came after a watchdog group filed an ethics complaint into his use of campaign funds. And in 2023, he faced scrutiny for false claims about his resume.

Ogles’ allies also seem to believe the race is close. Trump hosted a tele-rally with Ogles last week, and the Freedom Caucus Fund, the political arm of the hard-right caucus of which Ogles is a member, has spent over $700,000 propping him up, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

Hatcher’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment on Wednesday.

Whoever ultimately wins will have a steep fundraising hill to climb. Ogles has more debt than cash on hand, and Hatcher has spent almost all of the $720,000 he’s raised on the primary.

Meanwhile, Molder has compiled a $1.5 million warchest. But that still may not be enough to overcome the district’s recent gerrymander. If the lines existed in 2024, Trump would have won the district by 23 points.

If Ogles survives, Matzzie indicated his PAC is planning to keep the barrage of ads coming.

“We’re just getting started. If Ogles manages to survive tonight we will stick on him through the general while taking this fight on the road to other races across the country,” Matzzie said.