Alternative to Trump and Cruz?

GOP party elders aren't rallying for Rubio

A flurry of lawmaker endorsements has petered out, a sign party bigwigs aren't settled on him as their alternative to Trump and Cruz.

By Burgess Everett

Republican Party elders in Congress have nothing but nice things to say about Marco Rubio, but the Florida senator is encountering a nagging problem — they’re not ready to coalesce around him as the man to stop Donald Trump or Ted Cruz from marching to the nomination.

While Rubio racked up a string of lawmaker endorsements this fall to rival Jeb Bush's roster of congressional backers, his momentum on Capitol Hill has since stalled. His performance in the endorsement game, on the cusp of primary season, certainly isn’t fatal given Congress’ dismal ratings. But it does point to a struggle to be anointed the establishment candidate of choice.

The reticence around Rubio was punctuated by Sen. Lindsey Graham's surprise move into Jeb Bush's camp last week. The South Carolina senator, seen as one of the few congressional endorsements that could move the needle after he dropped out of the presidential race last month, went on to imply that Rubio is too green to be president.

Some senior GOP lawmakers who got behind Bush when expectations were still high say they're not ready to jump ship yet but will reassess if the former Florida governor drops out. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) said Rubio would likely be his second choice after Bush.

"He’s a very attractive, intelligent, hardworking decent man," Hatch said. "And he knows his stuff and has an exceptional foreign policy background.”

Endorsements from members are about more than just winning their home states: They bring donors and connections to turnout operations. And a lawmaker with respected expertise can help deflect political attacks against the candidate on an issue that voters care about.

According to an endorsement tracker compiled by the website FiveThirtyEight, Bush has 31 congressional endorsements, Rubio has 27 and Cruz is backed by 18 conservative House members but no fellow senators. It's been decades since members of Congress and governors haven't been so splintered in their GOP primary endorsements.

With the candidates at a stalemate, Rubio and Bush’s surrogates have been left to argue whose backers pack more punch. Rubio’s supporters say Bush’s endorsements represent the Republican Party of the past, as opposed to Rubio’s younger set of supporters.

“Jeb Bush’s endorsements are legacy endorsements. They’re not endorsements for who he is, as much as for the family,” said Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), a Rubio backer. “A number of people made commitments early, and they are going to stick to those commitments until Jeb drops out.”

Not so, said Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), who last February became the first member of Congress to endorse Bush. The 37-year-old Air Force veteran says he owes the Bush family “nothing.”

“Rubio has a lot of support. Jeb has more,” Kinzinger said. “I’m 100 percent with Jeb. If at some point he decides he’s not running anymore — which I don’t foresee happening — but if he does, then we’ll take a look after that. But you know, Rubio may drop out too.”

In many ways, the endorsements for Bush and Rubio track their performance in the race. Bush rocketed to an early endorsement lead, with 15 House members backing him by the end of June of last year; at that point Rubio had just one congressional endorsement. But Rubio made up ground during the fall, clinching 17 congressional endorsements just in November and December.

But the New Hampshire primary, widely viewed as a referendum on who is best positioned to challenge Cruz and Trump, is now fewer than three weeks away. After Graham's embrace of Bush, there are few obvious big congressional endorsements left on the GOP side.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who is beloved in New Hampshire, is said to be “strongly inclined” to sit things out until that primary is over, according to a person close to him. New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, facing a tough reelection race this year, is staying on the sidelines after endorsing Mitt Romney relatively early in the cycle in 2012.

Two popular Iowa senators, Joni Ernst and Chuck Grassley, are remaining neutral, too. South Carolina's Tim Scott, a young senator quietly building a profile as a conservative policy workhorse, will not endorse before Iowa but is likely to weigh in before South Carolina, an aide said.

On Wednesday, Rubio was glued to his phone as he navigated the Capitol basement, ignoring other senators, but stopped to greet Scott with a hug and a handshake.

"I'm from South Carolina," Scott told a reporter by way of explanation.

Indeed, as the clock winds down, Bush and Rubio are maneuvering for any edge they can find. Bush is privately leaning on lawmakers to keep their powder dry, while Rubio is looking to peel off as many last-minute endorsements as he can, according to sources on Capitol Hill.

Among the coveted potential endorsements is House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mike McCaul. Rubio’s backers are swarming to the Texas lawmaker as a potential validation of the candidate's national security chops.

“Rubio is making a very concerted [effort]. I think he’s pretty well liked. But I’ve stayed out so far,” said McCaul. “The [Bushes] have a strong presence in my state, obviously.”

Rubio's latest Senate endorsement was from Oklahoman Jim Inhofe, an old-guard Republican who favors spending on defense and infrastructure and advocates for earmarks. The nod quickly came in handy: When Rubio’s climate change policies were questioned last week, Inhofe blasted out a statement insisting Rubio stood with him against cap-and-trade proposals “every step of the way.”

And when a pro-Bush super PAC whacked Rubio for skipping an intelligence briefing, House Intelligence Committee member Mike Pompeo defended him against what the Kansan called a “dishonest” attack.

Like Hatch, other lawmakers are beginning to openly talk about who might be their second choice if their top pick falters in Iowa or New Hampshire. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) endorsed Mike Huckabee in August and said he’s sticking by him until the end. But if it does end, Rounds said he'd consider Rubio.

“Always thought he’d be an excellent candidate,” Rounds said of Rubio. "He’s bright, he’s got the right demeanor.”

Some lawmakers say the scramble for endorsements from members of Congress may not be worth all the effort. In Baltimore last week, the No. 3 Senate Republican, John Thune, spoke highly of Rubio. But Thune, who remains uncommitted in the race, was quick to add, "I always tell people: ‘I’m not sure you want members of Congress endorsing you.’"