Tight battle

Poll: Sanders and Clinton in tight battle for Iowa

By Nick Gass

As the time to caucus ticks closer in Iowa, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are locked in a tight battle among likely Democratic caucus-goers, according to the results of the latest Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday.

Buoyed by the support of younger voters, strong liberals and men, Sanders grabbed 49 percent support, compared to 45 percent for Clinton. Those numbers, while nearly identical to Quinnipiac's survey of the state two weeks prior, come on the heels of a Fox News poll of likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers in which Clinton held a slim six-point lead over Sanders. Meanwhile, former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley earned the support of 4 percent in the latest Quinnipiac survey, with 2 percent still undecided.

The Vermont senator widened or maintained his advantage over Clinton from the last poll among those identifying as very liberal (63 percent to 32 percent), those under the age of 45 (78 percent to 21 percent) and men (63 percent to 32 percent). Clinton, for her part, outdrew Sanders among those who identified as somewhat liberal (53 percent to 40 percent), among those 45 and older (53 percent to 39 percent among 45-64 group, and 71 percent to 21 percent among the 65-and-up crowd), and among women (54 percent to 40 percent). Moderates and conservatives likely to participate in the Democratic caucus were split over the two top candidates, with 47 percent opting for Clinton and 46 percent for Sanders.

Overall, 81 percent of those surveyed said they had locked in their minds the candidate they plan to support on Monday, with 19 percent indicating that they might change their mind. Among Clinton supporters, the split is 83 percent to 17 percent, and among those for Sanders, it is 80 percent to 20 percent.

While two-in-three (67 percent) said they had already participated in a caucus, 33 percent responded that this year would be their first time. Of that 33 percent, 72 percent said they will be supporting Sanders, while just 26 percent say they will back Clinton. Among the seasoned caucus-goers, Clinton is the choice of 54 percent, while 38 percent plan to stand for Sanders.

Among those reporting a household income of less than $50,000, Sanders extended his lead over Clinton by seven points since the last poll, while holding a six-point edge over her among those in households making between $50,000 and $100,000. Clinton's 24-point advantage among those in households making more than $100,000 grew from just a 13-point lead in that category earlier in the month.

Asked a series of questions about desirable characteristics in their candidate, the most important feature for Clinton supporters was backing the candidate with the best chance of winning, with 77 percent of those favoring the secretary of state indicating as such. By contrast, only 12 percent of Sanders' supporters responded the same way. Instead, 76 percent of those who plan to caucus for the Vermont senator said the most important qualities are honesty and trustworthiness; just 12 percent of Clinton supporters called that the most important characteristic.

The poll was conducted Jan. 18-24 via landlines and cellphones, surveying 606 likely Democratic caucus participants. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.