Dead heat

Iowa poll: Trump and Cruz in a dead heat

The feuding rivals are virtually tied with less than a week before the caucuses.

By Nick Gass

With less than a week until Republicans caucuses in Iowa, Ted Cruz is locked in a tight race with Donald Trump, while Marco Rubio is showing no signs of a last-minute surge, trailing the two front-runners by double digits.

The latest Quinnipiac University survey released Tuesday shows Trump with 31 percent support in Iowa and Cruz with 29 percent — the same figures as the university’s previous Iowa poll, released Jan. 11 and an encouraging sign for the Texas senator, who has endured relentless attacks from Trump in recent weeks.

As soon as Cruz eclipsed Trump in an average of Iowa polls in mid-December, the real estate mogul unleashed an all-out assault on Cruz’s Canadian birth, his track record on immigration, and his virtual pariah status in the Senate. Trump kept it up on Monday evening, claiming in a tweet, “Cruz going down fast in recent polls — dropping like a rock. Lies never work!”

While Cruz has slipped from his early-January high in the Iowa polls, the latest survey shows him in a virtual dead heat with his main rival.

Rubio, however, is struggling to break out of his distant third position. In Tuesday’s survey, conducted over the course of the past week, the Florida senator earned 13 percent, a slight dip from two weeks ago, when he stood at 15 percent.

All other candidates polled in the single digits, including Ben Carson at 7 percent, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 5 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 4 percent. Other candidates polled below the margin of error, while 2 percent of voters said they are still undecided.

Asked whether it would be their first time participating in the Iowa caucuses, 67 percent of respondents said they have participated in previous cycles, while 33 percent said it would be their first time. Among first-time participants, Trump is the choice of 38 percent, followed by Cruz with 25 percent. For those who have previously caucused, Cruz holds a 3-percentage-point advantage over Trump, 31 percent to 28 percent.

Of those who have chosen a candidate, roughly 6-in-10, 59 percent, said they have made up their mind, while 4-in-10, 39 percent, indicated that they might switch their support to another candidate. Among respondents who backed either Trump or Cruz, 69 percent said they are firmly decided on their candidate, with 29 percent and 30 percent, respectively, indicating that they could be persuaded otherwise.

Trump draws a plurality of support from those identifying as somewhat conservative — 29 percent to Cruz’s 21 percent — as well as those who identify as moderate or liberal — 37 percent to 19 percent for Rubio, who is next closest. At the same time, Cruz outdrew Trump among tea party loyalists 50 percent to 34 percent, white, born-again evangelical Christians (39 percent to 27 percent) as well as those identifying as very conservative (49 percent to 29 percent).

Trump holds a narrow lead over Cruz among men, 36 percent to 32 percent, while among women, the two are neatly split, with 25 percent each. Rubio finishes third with both genders, taking 12 percent of men and 15 percent of women.

In terms of household income, Trump holds an advantage among likely caucus-goers who reported an annual income of less than $50,000 (37 percent to Cruz’s 25 percent) and more than $100,000, 36 percent to Cruz’s 23 percent. In the middle, however, among people reporting an income of $50,000 to $100,000, Cruz leads Trump 38 percent to 23 percent.

The poll was conducted via landlines and cellphones from Jan. 18 to 24, surveying 651 likely Republican caucus participants. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.