See advantage

Congressional Democrats see advantage in Trump's success

They also expect to benefit is Ted Cruz is the GOP nominee.

By Lauren French

Donald Trump has caused Republican leaders to shudder at the impact the bombastic New Yorker could have on down-ticket races. Democrats, however, see only potential for election wins.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will release a memo Wednesday detailing its predictions for how the nomination of either Trump or Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz could impact the 2016 contest for House seats — arguing that Republican candidates could be empowered to take controversial and more conservative stances on social and economic issues because of Trump or Cruz.

“If House Republicans are 'frightened' by the prospect of either Trump or Cruz atop their ticket, they should be downright terrified of the damage already done to their party,” the DCCC memo reads. “The fact is that the presidential front-runners have already imperiled several House Republicans’ chances at reelection — well before the first votes are cast in the nominating contest.”

The report names 13 Republicans in swing districts whom the DCCC thinks would be most damaged by the Trump brand — or could be spurred to take more conservative positions in order to curry favor with the anti-establishment voters who are attracted to Trump and Cruz.

They are: Bruce Poliquin of Maine, Bob Dold of Illinois, Patrick Meehan of Pennsylvania, Lee Zeldin of New York, Mike Bishop and Tim Walberg of Michigan, Rod Blum of Iowa, Cresent Hardy of Nevada, John Mica of Florida, Steve Knight of California, Barbara Comstock of Virginia, Scott Garrett of New Jersey and Mike Coffman of Colorado.

“For some Republican members who have gone to great lengths to project a moderate veneer to voters, the impact of the GOP presidential nominating contest is particularly fraught,” the DCCC said in the memo. “On the one hand, Trump and Cruz’s rhetoric and policy positions are often in direct conflict with the positions these members would stake out if they were truly the moderates they purport to be.”

The memo argues that Trump’s and Cruz’s focus on social issues like gay marriage and Planned Parenthood could put Republicans in tough districts in the uncomfortable position of defending their presidential nominee — or even matching rhetoric used by a presidential nominee - despite moderate views held by voters.

The Democrats’ anticipation of how Trump or Cruz would impact House elections stand in stark contrast to those Republican leaders who are openly fretting about having either GOP politician atop the presidential ticket. A Republican pollster, Dave Sackett of the Tarrance Group, told Speaker Paul Ryan and his leadership team earlier this month that Cruz would be the biggest drag on House Republicans if we were to win his party’s nomination.

Democratic leaders privately admit that they don’t have a chance of regaining control of the House even with Trump or Cruz as the Republican nominee but hope that the rhetoric used by both candidates will spur Democratic wins. Democratic candidates generally fair better in presidential election years because of the increased turnout among younger voters and minorities.

“Regardless of the ultimate Republican nominee, Trump and Cruz have hijacked the Republican narrative and driven the conversation to place that is bad news for House Republicans in a Presidential year,” DCCC spokeswoman Meredith Kelly said.