Trump Show...

5 things to watch in tonight’s debate

Does Trump steal viewers, can Cruz take a front-runner’s heat, will New Hampshire watch?

By Alex Isenstadt

It’s time for the final debate before the Iowa caucuses – the candidates’ last chance to appeal for support on a national stage – and the Republican front-runner promises to be a no-show.

After dominating one news cycle after the next over the course of the 2016 nominating contest, Donald Trump will do it again tonight, offering Americans’ a sideshow and creating a split-screen moment that will paint him, visually, as the outsider he wants voters to believe he is.

The clash between Trump and Fox Entertainment News saves the real estate developer from the onslaught his chief Iowa rival, Ted Cruz, was intending to carry from the campaign trail to the debate stage. But, for Cruz, there’s also peril - he shifts from predator to prey, becoming the de factor front-runner on stage and a main target for his lower-polling rivals.

Like other Fox productions, this was always certain to be an adrenaline-fueled Fight Night in America-style event. Now, the question is, how many will choose to watch Trump’s counter-programming instead?

Here’s what POLITICO is watching for tonight.

Will he or won’t he?

Easily the biggest question heading into Thursday: Will Trump show up?

The billionaire insists he won’t, and despite scheduling a rally to rival the forum that anyone can livestream, not everyone is buying it. Brett O’Donnell, a longtime Republican debate coach who was a top adviser to Mitt Romney in 2012, said he was convinced Trump would be in attendance. O’Donnell described Trump’s move as a savvy gambit, saying the mogul had succeeded in stealing one of the final news cycles before caucus day.

And if Trump does show, he said, it would now be a lot harder for Fox’s moderators to play hardball with him. “I can’t imagine Megyn Kelly will touch him with a 10-foot poll,” O’Donnell said.

But Barry Bennett, Ben Carson’s former campaign who is now informally advising Trump’s campaign, said there was little incentive for the poll-leader to participate. Doing so, Bennett said, served only to gift Trump’s opponents with a large TV audience; by skipping, he robs them of an opportunity to attack him – and to get eyeballs just days before Iowa votes.

“Everyone will be watching him at the rally,” Bennett said.

The Fox Show

Trump or no Trump, one thing seems sure: Fox will try to create a spectacle.

The popular cable network, led by iconic chief executive Roger Ailes, is all about high octane entertainment. Fox’s August GOP debate was filled with conflict and fireworks – and Republican campaigns say this version will be no different. Some GOP campaign advisers are convinced that Fox’s skirmishing with Trump was all about building drama ahead of the main event, but that the network inadvertently crossed the line when on Tuesday it released a mock statement that gave Trump an opening to say he would be treated unfairly.

“I think it will be raucous,” Bennett said. “It’s good TV, and that’s what they want.”

If Trump appears on stage, Fox will get the show it’s looking for – a primetime showdown between Trump and Kelly.

“If Trump walks onto that stage – it’s chaos. Everyone takes shots at him,” said Rick Wiley, who served as Scott Walker’s campaign manager.

If he doesn't, the network will still be able to manufacture drama. With just seven participants — down from 10 in August — the network will have more time to pit candidates against one another. It's easy, advisers say, to imagine Fox setting up fights between Cruz and Marco Rubio and Rubio and Jeb Bush.

And if Trump isn’t there, moderators can still ask questions about him. Which of Trump’s rivals will go the furthest in criticizing him, and which will refuse?

"The first 15 minutes will be all about Donald Trump not being onstage,” Wiley said.

Cruz under pressure

The stakes might be highest for Cruz, whose grip on first place in Iowa seems to be slipping as Trump claws back in the final days before Iowans vote.

The Texas senator will bring to the stage his campaign trail argument that he is the most conservative candidate in the primary, and that, unlike Trump, he can be trusted. In recent days, Cruz and several super PACs that support him have released TV ads that aim to inject doubts into Iowans’ minds about Trump’s commitment to conservatism, especially on abortion – a core issue for the state’s evangelical voters.

And if Trump doesn’t show, O’Donnell said, Cruz would have an opportunity to raise questions about Trump’s commitment to the state. “What Cruz has to do is show that Trump doesn’t care about the people of Iowa, because if he did he would have shown up,” he said. “He’s got to prove that he’s bigger than Donald Trump, and at this point that’s a very high mountain to climb.”

Cruz’s team has signaled the attack it will level against Trump should he fail to show – a character assault aimed at casting the New Yorker too self-centered and emotional to occupy the Oval Office.

But that’s only if Cruz has the time. He’s expected to spend much of the evening getting flak from Rubio, a chief rival in Iowa, and other competitors looking to score points.

The establishment war raging beyond Iowa

A cluster of establishment contenders are, once again, primed for a battle.

Rubio, Bush, Chris Christie, and John Kasich are all depending on strong performances in New Hampshire – a state where none has been able to break away.

On Wednesday, POLITICO obtained an internal poll from a GOP campaign showing Bush and Kasich in a tie for third with 13 percent, followed by Rubio with 10 percent and Christie with 7 percent in the first primary state.

That means the four will be out to undo one another to capture third place in the nomination battle’s second contest, tailoring debate-night talking points not to Iowa’s voters but New Hampshire’s more independent-minded electorate.

“I think people are already looking beyond Iowa and they are looking at who will come in third in New Hampshire – and this debate will have a huge impact on New Hampshire,” said Mari Will, a veteran GOP debate coach who advised Walker. “Most of the people on this stage aren’t even thinking about Iowa.”

Two potential collisions to keep an eye on: Bush vs. Kasich and Bush vs. Christie. Some on Bush’s campaign, one source briefed on the discussions said, are growing increasingly impatient with the former governor’s super PAC for not spending more resources going after Kasich and Christie on the airwaves. On Thursday, Bush could go after both.

Rubio in the middle

Those familiar with Rubio’s plan say he has a simple goal: Appear as the cool-headed option capable of uniting the party and defeating the Democrat in November.

Rubio may not be looking to knock anyone out, but he wants to create a strong contrast with Trump and Cruz – insurgents who, many in the GOP hierarchy are convinced, would be the stuff of electoral nightmares.

It won’t be smooth sailing for Rubio, though – far from it.

As a candidate who’s straddled the conservative and establishment lanes, Rubio is expected to face intense incoming fire from both directions. Cruz, who has criticized the Florida senator over his 2013 push for a comprehensive immigration overhaul, is almost certain to go after Rubio. So is establishment contender Christie, who has repeatedly portrayed the Floridian as an inexperienced senator who isn’t ready to govern.

“Everyone who is onstage knows they have to take Marco out, and he’s got to be prepared,” O’Donnell said.