Flipped earlier?

Michigan Republicans wish Haley Stevens had flipped earlier

Lisa Kashinsky, Aaron Pellish and Meredith Lee Hill

Republicans are elated about Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens’ stunning late-stage endorsement of GOP former Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan’s critical Senate race. But some fear it may be too little, too late to make a difference.

Even as they reveled in the chaos engulfing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and his party following Stevens’ Sunday endorsement switch, senior Republicans worried it won’t move enough voters to get Rogers across the finish line whenpolls show him trailing in the swing state and the overall environment is so tough for the GOP.

“If we are talking about a Democrat +10 environment, I don’t think a perfect GOP candidate could outperform that. … And Rogers is far from perfect,” said one national Republican involved in the race. “There’s no world where Kansas and South Carolina are in play but we have a shot at Michigan.”

Her endorsement change from El-Sayed to Rogers also came on the last day of early voting in Michigan. More than2.3 million Michigan voters have cast ballots so far, well over half of the total number of votes in the state in 2022. And it comes late enough that plenty of lower-information voters might not even hear about it before casting their ballots on Tuesday.

"I don't think it's going to make much of a difference because a lot of people have already voted,” said Doug Nelson, chair of the Republican Party in Van Buren County in southwest Michigan. “If she would have done it a week ago, it would have been a lot better."

The concerns about Rogers’ standing in the final days among senior Republicans is a stark contrast to the intense bullishness they’ve held for months at their chances of flipping the seat.

Some Republicans in Stevens’ corner of Michigan think her switch could give a new permission structure to Democrats who were already skeptical of El-Sayed’s campaign, particularly over his rhetoric and views on Israel. Vance Patrick, chair of the GOP in Oakland County, the suburban Detroit community with a significant Jewish population that Stevens represents in Congress, said the endorsement “is going to resonate with the Jewish community, especially of Oakland County.”

One Michigan-based GOP operative working on statewide races and granted anonymity to speak candidly about the dynamics said there’s “going to be a positive impact” for Rogers but “it’s not going to be blockbuster margin-changing.”

Rogers’ campaign has attempted to capitalize on Stevens’ support in the race’s final 48 hours. The Republican rushed out a video ad Sunday night touting her endorsement.

“Voters who don’t feel like Abdul’s hateful rhetoric represents their vision for Michigan’s future, you have a home with us,” Rogers spokesperson Alyssa Brouillet said. “Haley Stevens found her home with us, and after a hard-fought primary battle, we know some of her supporters will feel the same.”

Many Michigan and national Democrats who attempted to downplay Stevens’ desertion on Monday. Stevens herself said Sunday she’s just “one vote” and wasn’t “trying to sway any election.”

But Detroit City Councilor Mary Waters, who supported Stevens in the Senate primary and has been uncommitted since, leaned into Stevens’ split to encourage people to vote their conscience. She told POLITICO she was advising torn voters to write in Stevens — and said she “might split my ticket.”