Already given up on

The races Republicans have already given up on

Aaron Pellish

The midterms are still a day away, but strategists in both parties have already given up on some key races once billed as frontline contests.

As the battleground map has expanded in the races’ final weeks, the top super PACs in both parties have been forced to make decisions about where to allocate limited resources, leading to some candidates getting cut off from a crucial financial lifeline in the home stretch.

Over a dozen Senate and House contests have been triaged — and they reflect the troubling picture Republicans are facing on Tuesday.

In almost every race where either party has cut spending, Republican candidates have struggled to offset the political headwinds hurting the party nationwide.

The two biggest examples are the Senate races in North Carolina and Georgia, races that both parties invested in heavily early in the cycle. The GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund spent $35 million each on TV ads in North Carolina and Georgia before bailing on the races to help shore up incumbents in deep-red Kansas, South Carolina and Mississippi.

Democrats also wound down their spending in those states, a reflection of how both parties closely track their rival counterpart’s spending habits to ensure they aren’t wasting resources in races abandoned by their opponent.

Republicans have had to cut bait on a number of House races, too. The GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund cut off spending against Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) and Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Mich.) and gave up on holding retiring Rep. Don Bacon’s (R-Neb.) seat, while forgoing its reservations in NC-11 as they gave up on holding scandal-plagued outgoing Rep. Chuck Edwards’ open seat. Democrats’ House Majority PAC did the same shortly after.

Those cuts helped fund efforts in other nearby battlegrounds — an advantage to Democrats who were able to expand the map. Both sides took reservations in South Texas TV markets earmarked for TX-28 and used them for ads for their candidates in neighboring TX-34 and TX-15 after deciding Cuellar was safe. CLF also shifted reservations in the New York City market originally intended for the Republicans in NJ-09, Rep. Nellie Pou’s (D-N.J.) seat, and NY-04, held by Rep. Laura Gillen (D-N.Y.) to help boost GOP Rep. Mike Lawler’s reelection bid in NY-17.

Gillen had one of 2024’s narrowest victories — she won by 2.2 percentage points — and she was one of Republicans’ top targets at the beginning of the cycle. Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.) and Rep. Josh Riley (D-N.Y.) both won their races by 2 points last cycle. CLF’s nonprofit arm American Action Network spent $1.2 million combined on TV ads in both races, but only $100 combined in October. CLF also cut support for Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), who won her 2024 race by less than 800 votes.

A portion of CLF’s spending strategy shifts were supplemented by money from President Donald Trump’s political operation. The group transferred its reservations for the pricey FL-25 race to No Going Back PAC, a super PAC linked to MAGA Inc.

Democrats have triaged races out of pessimism over their candidates’ chances as well, although fewer than Republicans. They cut spending in TN-05 after Rep. Andy Ogles lost his primary, making the seat more difficult for Democrats.

And they initially cut spending in FL-07 after Rep. Cory Mills lost his primary, although HMP went back on air last week in the district, and also resurrected spending in the districts held by Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) and Rep. Darren Soto (D-Fla.).