Election Day

Here are some of the reasons your party will (or won’t) have a good Election Day

Analysis by Aaron Blake

Election Day is tomorrow, and while there are high expectations for Democrats, it’s impossible to know for certain what will happen in the race for control of Congress.

Many Democrats are worried about the polls overestimating the strength of their candidates again, while President Donald Trump and some in the GOP seem sanguine in the final days.

Here’s a look at some possible scenarios:

Why Republicans could have a good night

• The polls were wrong: Polls — especially in red states — could systematically underestimate Republicans because they don’t respond to them as much.
• The Senate map was just so red: Democrats need a net gain of four seats, which requires them flipping at least two states that Trump won by double digits.
• The GOP pulled an upset in a currently blue state: The number of GOP Senate seats Democrats need to pick off increases if they lose the ones they’re defending — namely Maine, Michigan or both.
• The GOP’s gerrymandering was too successful: If Republicans keep their majority in the House — or even just keep Democrats’ gains to a minimum — the GOP’s brazen mid-decade gerrymandering push will likely have played a role.
• Voters didn’t care much about the Iran war, corruption and other unpopular Trump ideas: If Republicans do better than expected, a big reason might be that voters didn’t care enough about Trump’s actions for them to matter.

Why Democrats could have a good night

• Trump’s historic unpopularity: By many measures, Trump is the most unpopular president in modern history heading into a midterm.
• Trump’s coalition broke down: Trump swept the swing states in the 2024 election in large part by making big gains with young people (especially men), Latinos and infrequent voters. Polls suggest all three groups have turned sharply against him.
• Trump’s neglect of affordability: Trump has neglected what almost always polls as a chief concern: affordability. He was elected in large part because of high inflation and his own promises to fix it quickly.
• Broken promises: Related to the two preceding items is that Trump simply didn’t do the things he promised. He said he wasn’t going to start wars, but he did. He said he was going to fix inflation, and it’s now worse.
• The GOP mobilized non-White voters — in the wrong way: Perhaps no demographic has swung against Trump by as much as Latino voters. There is also some evidence that the Supreme Court further weakening the Voting Rights Act and Republicans gutting heavily Black congressional districts could be mobilizing Black voters.
• Corruption: Corruption has emerged as a major concern for Americans — sometimes even polling above prices. But more significantly, there is growing evidence that voters’ concerns about corruption are more of a problem for Republicans than Democrats