Biggest Upset of Election Night

The Biggest Upset of Election Night Could Come From South Carolina

Lindsey Graham’s sister inherited his Senate seat. Plenty of Republicans aren’t buying it.

Isabela Dias

On Tuesday evening, a week before Election Day, Maggie O’Neal took her husband and two daughters—six and 10 years old—to see Dr. Annie Andrews, the pediatrician trying to flip a Senate seat in deep-red South Carolina, speak in Greenville.

O’Neal, who grew up in a Republican household but votes Democrat, was “very early on the Dr. Annie bandwagon.” For about a decade, she worked as a hospice social worker; her father is a retired physician and her husband a practicing doctor. In Andrews, she recognized the dedication to years of study—in the Democratic challenger’s case at the University of Cincinnati College of Medicine—and the commitment to evidence-based research.

“The strongest, most amazing physicians I’ve ever met and watched go through medical training are women,” O’Neal, 39, said. “The amount of work they have to do to succeed and thrive, and what they have to endure says a lot about her.” At the campaign event, O’Neal’s oldest daughter carried a sign that read, “If I could vote, I’d vote for Dr. Annie.”

“She’s very inspiring,” said O’Neal, a Colombian-born adoptee who became a naturalized citizen as a child. Her parents, Republicans who have grown disenchanted with the direction of the party under President Donald Trump, also support Andrews. Some of her friends are picking Republican candidates all the way down the ballot—except for the Senate. “She has a really good head on her shoulders for straddling the line of both parties,” O’Neal continued, “which I think is what South Carolina needs right now.”

Ahead of a pivotal election night, Andrews is in an unexpectedly tight contest against Darline Graham, a political novice who inherited the seat following the death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, in July and now hopes to serve a full six-year term. The Republican candidate’s credentials—her family name and an endorsement from President Donald Trump—have voters in the Palmetto State questioning if she’s not just a “nepo senator,” especially when contrasted to Andrews’ hard-earned medical bona fides and political campaign history.

The result, a race that should be a safe GOP hold but Fox News has moved to a toss-up, has Republicans worried. In the two weeks leading up to the election, Trump rallied twice in the state he carried by almost 18 points in 2024, and the GOP top Senate PAC has pledged $5 million to prop up Graham and prevent a Democratic pickup that would be one of the biggest upsets in the country. Even the interim senator herself, who doesn’t seem to particularly enjoy campaigning, acknowledged feeling a “little nervous” about the polls.

“Democrats haven’t had much to get excited about in state politics for a long time.”

“Democrats haven’t had much to get excited about in state politics for a long time,” said Furman University professor Danielle Vinson. The last time a Democrat won a Senate seat in South Carolina was in 1998, and no Democratic candidate has come within nine points of a victory this century.

Vinson was initially skeptical of the polls showing a competitive race. The most recent New York Times/Siena poll had both candidates effectively tied, with Graham leading by less than one percentage point. In 2020, Democrats had their hopes crushed when Jaime Harrison, former chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party, appeared within the margin of error, but ended up losing to Lindsey Graham by 10 points. This year, Harrison has said, the “stars are aligning” for Democrats in the state and a strong Black voter turnout could help Andrews’ chances.

Trump’s multiple stops in South Carolina to try and boost one of his handpicked candidates have also persuaded Vinson that this time it might be different. “That suggests to me that their own internal polling is raising questions and concerns because there’s no really good reason that the president should have to come to South Carolina for a Senate race,” she said. That, and the fact that Andrews’ yard signs have cropped up in reliably conservative areas of Greenville, are an indication to her that some Republican voters simply “are not comfortable” voting for Graham, whose previous professional stint was as the head of South Carolina’s Commission for the Blind.

If Andrews wins, Vinson said, “Democrats will be bouncing from the ceilings.” But even if she just comes close enough to pulling it off, “it will be a reminder that if you want to see change, you have to show up.” A near-win could also re-energize the party looking ahead, with South Carolina holding the first 2028 Democratic presidential primary.

A Kentucky-born mother of three, Andrews worked as a pediatric hospitalist at the Medical University of South Carolina Children’s Hospital in Charleston for 14 years, treating kids with cancer and gunshot wounds. After the 2018 Parkland school shooting in Florida, Andrews joined the Moms Demand Action movement that fights for gun safety laws and later became an adviser for a gun violence prevention organization.

In 2022, she ran for Congress to unseat Rep. Nancy Mace, ultimately trailing her by 14 points. Andrews then launched a political group advocating for children. “That’s what drove me off the sidelines,” she said in a conversation with Harrison in October. “It’s witnessing these patterns of policy failures showing up in our hospital exam rooms and wanting to do something about it.” 

Now, momentum appears to be on Andrews’ side. On Friday, the Senate Majority PAC to elect Democrats released the first ad in a $750,000, 11th-hour push to get her over the finish line, painting Graham as “an empty suit for special interests.” Andrews’ slim path to a one-time unthinkable victory may hinge on that message resonating with Republican and independent voters who would rather not be force-fed a candidate who inspires little confidence.

“We were led to believe that she was just a placeholder for that seat and South Carolinians would have the opportunity to vote for whomever they thought would be the best,” said George Culpepper Jr., who identifies as a conservative Republican and picked US Rep. Ralph Norman in the primary. “We were kind of caught off guard because a seat shouldn’t just be given to someone.”

“We get hounded on by hardcore conservatives who believe that you need to vote for Darline Graham because she has an ‘R’ by her name. We’ve done that in the past and we’ve got screwed.”

“When a candidate is shoved down our throats, I’m sorry, but our minds are independent here in South Carolina,” he added. “We won’t bow down to being told how and who to vote for.”

A Greer resident and father of three, 52-year-old Culpepper described himself as a long-time supporter of President Trump but blamed his administration for the Iran War-fueled spike in gas prices. He’s skeptical that Graham would stand for conservative causes, saying she’s “still an unknown.” He also pointed to the primary debate in which Graham fumbled a foreign policy question about Taiwan and the South China Sea—responding that “national security is not my thing”—as a “turning point” for him. Culpepper said many conservatives are either crossing party lines to vote for Andrews or writing in Norman.

“We get hounded on by hardcore conservatives who believe that you need to vote for Darline Graham because she has an ‘R’ by her name,” he said. “We’ve done that in the past and we’ve got screwed.”

Culpepper decided to vote for the Democrat, adding his name to a “Republicans for Dr. Annie” list, after seeing a campaign ad in which she vows to “fight the swamp” of Washington, DC. “She has six years to prove herself,” Culpepper said, offering that she could “truly be an independent” like a John Fetterman or a Kyrsten Sinema. If she doesn’t, she can be voted out the next time around. “We need a fighter,” he continued. “We don’t need someone that’s going to kowtow to a certain party.”

Carl Hokanson, a Republican-turned-independent who never voted for Trump, said Graham’s candidacy “is a joke” and that “she can’t even read from a prepared speech,” referring to her questioning of former special counsel Jack Smith in a recent Senate hearing. He also criticized her political ads as “filled with lies and half-truths.”

Graham’s campaign has labeled Andrews a “radical.” At a rally in Rock Hill, the Republican said her opponent was “plain old batshit crazy.” Trump has echoed those attacks, calling Andrews a “fanatical transgender activist.” In one of her ads, which sparked backlash from LGBTQ+ rights groups, the pediatrician says she’s against “biological men” playing women’s sports and never performed “gender surgery” on minors.

Andrews, who has tried to deflect culture war flashpoints and focus on South Carolinians’ concerns about affordability and healthcare, has been courting voters just like Culpepper. She likes to say her campaign is for everyone, regardless of party affiliation, and that, if elected, she will be an “independent voice” working across the aisle. Andrews often nods to her Republican dad and has received endorsements from former GOP Governor David Beasley and State Senator Katrina Shealy. Warren Norman, son of the hardline conservative congressman, made it known that he wouldn’t be supporting Graham and was “leaning” towards Andrews.

“She’s somebody who’s taking the approach of being very pragmatic,” said Vinson, “and just wanting to address problems and not necessarily doing it from a partisan perspective.”

John Aguilar, a 35-year-old resident of Walhalla who runs a dog training business, appreciates Andrews’ attention to “real-life problems.” The son of Mexican and Guatemalan immigrants who were able to obtain legal status during the Ronald Reagan presidency, Aguilar said he had voted for Trump before, but has soured on his mass deportation policies and fears Graham will just be a “complete rubber stamp” for the administration.

“I believe [Annie Andrews] can do it and I feel like the GOP also believes that she might be able to pull this one off just just based on the the amount of effort and money they’re dumping into a +18 state that shouldn’t be that way,” he said.

A retiree who lives in Horry County and asked not to be named because she believes the vote should be private said three months ago she didn’t believe Andrews stood a chance, but that “the tide is turning.” She has voted for Republican candidates in the past, but doesn’t think the “Graham lady” represents the working people of South Carolina and predicted that others will also put the person above the party on Election Day. “I don’t care how red you are and how proudly you’ve worn that hat in the last couple of years,” she told me, “you put that hat down.”

For Michael, a 48-year-old father of six and a lifelong Republican who asked to be identified by his first name only out of fear of retribution, this election is a referendum on Trump and the party. He’s furious about the war in Iran and a $40 trillion national debt. “It’s crazy-land at this point,” he said. “I’m never voting for these people again until they start looking like the Republicans I grew up with. I’m done.”

He voted for Democrats across the ballot and, despite living in a predominantly red part of the state, put a sign up for Andrews on his yard. Like others, Michael doesn’t trust Graham to stand up to the administration. “She’s not really representing South Carolina,” he said. “She’s representing Trump.” Andrews would likely be a “middle of the road” senator, he said, adding, “That’s what we need to get back to in this country: bipartisanship.” 

Renee Harvey of Charleston worked on Andrews’ unsuccessful campaign for Congress in 2022 and was an early backer of her Senate run even before it drew national attention. “Annie is offering solutions,” Harvey said, noting that she has several Trump-voting relatives who are casting a ballot for Andrews. “She’s always been a problem solver. That’s what she has to do at the bedside of her patients.”

After decades of Republican rule, Harvey thinks South Carolinians are ready for a change and poised to “shock” the country. “We’ve been doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results,” she said. “I think people are are starting to wake up.”

“If anybody is going to flip this seat,” Harvey added, “it’s going to be Annie Andrews.”