Early races to watch

The early races to watch to see whether the blue wave is coming

Aaron Pellish

We could have a clear sense of whether Democrats successfully built a blue wave before 9 p.m. Eastern time.

We can’t predict exactly which states will be called first. But some races that will likely report early returns will be the canary in the coal mine of a potentially disastrous night for Republicans.

They could also offer a signal on when the big call will be made: AP hasn’t called control of the House within 24 hours of polls closing since 2018, the last time Democrats rode a blue wave to flip the chamber.

Parts of Kentucky and Indiana will close their polls first at 6 p.m. If Democrats come out strong in the battleground Kentucky race between Democrat Zach Dembo and Republican Ralph Alvarado and the Indiana seat held by GOP Rep. Victoria Spartz, a pair of seats Donald Trump won by more than 15 points two years ago, it could be the first sign that a blue wave is coming.

The first state to post comprehensive results will likely be Florida, where polls fully close at 8 p.m. and votes are usually processed quickly as most of the state’s polls are closed by 7 p.m. The state has a history of defying national electoral trends. But a trio of Florida House races that Republicans would be expected to win handily — the Orlando-area seat being vacated by GOP Rep. Cory Mills, the Kissimmee-area seat held by Democratic Rep. Darren Soto redrawn to Republicans’ advantage, and the South Florida seat held by GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar — could give an early sense of how deep the bottom is for Republicans. And if Democrats are flipping Florida’s governorship or Senate seat, a hurricane might be a better description than a wave.

Another group of frontline House battlegrounds in Florida will indicate the extent to which major spending by Republicans may help stave off the political headwinds of a bad environment. The South Florida district that Democrats are hoping Rep. Jared Moskowitz can hold, the Tampa-area seat held by Rep. Kathy Castor, and the open Fort Myers-area seat redrawn by the GOP are all among the most expensive House races of the cycle.

A huge margin for Georgia Democrat Jon Ossoff and North Carolina Democrat Roy Cooper in the Senate races, wins for Democrats in the Georgia governor’s race or in Democratic Rep. Don Davis’ battleground North Carolina seat, or strong showings in South Carolina’s Senate race or the Charleston-anchored Republican-held House seat would all spell a bad night for Republicans. Democratic overperformance in a trio of House races in Virginia (VA-01, VA-02 and VA-05) could be a signal for a blue wave when polls close there at 7:30 p.m.

Early returns out of Ohio, whose polls close at 7:30 p.m., could hint at how other key Midwest races will unfold later in the night. On top of the battleground Senate race and the controversy-laden governor’s race, Republicans are fighting to hold on to embattled GOP Rep. Max Miller’s suburban Cleveland seat, Rep. Mike Carey’s (R-Ohio) Columbus-area district, and Rep. Mike Turner’s (R-Ohio) Dayton seat amid significant spending efforts from Democrats.

The GOP is also hoping to flip the seats of Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Greg Landsman, whose strong campaigns have weakened advantages Republicans gained from mid-decade redistricting in the state.