Tearing their party apart

Republicans worry the Cornyn-Paxton fight is tearing their party apart

After months of mudslinging, several Republicans are bracing for a messy primary finish — and an even more costly general election.

By Liz Crampton and Samuel Benson

The John Cornyn vs. Ken Paxton showdown ends Tuesday night, but the brutal primary has some Republicans worried the party will emerge in tatters.

Armed with President Donald Trump’s endorsement, Paxton has emerged as the clear front-runner in the final days of a Texas Senate runoff where the MAGA-aligned, scandal-plagued firebrand state attorney general has weathered millions of dollars in attack ads. But Cornyn, the establishment favorite and a giant of the Senate seeking a fifth term in office, is putting up a hard fight until the end, bolstered by a massive war chest and solidarity from senior leadership in Congress.

“In Spanish, they call it lucha de gigantes — a fight between two giants,” said Daniel Garza, president of the LIBRE Institute, a conservative Texas-based group that has stayed out of the primary. “Post-runoff, you’re going to have to mend a lot of fences.”

The race has become increasingly vicious in the final stretch, with Cornyn accusing the attorney general of being ethically unfit for office and Paxton arguing that the incumbent, 74, is too old to continue serving in the Senate. Their relentless mudslinging has only deepened existing divisions between the GOP’s hardliners and traditional moderates. Several Republicans in both Texas and Washington warn that Trump’s decision to endorse Paxton over Cornyn has alienated lawmakers on Capitol Hill — and risks turning off major GOP donors who will be critical during an expensive general election.

Awaiting the winner is Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, who has been raising huge sums and polling strongly against both GOP candidates, especially Paxton.

National Republicans are growing increasingly worried that having Paxton as the nominee will force them to spend massively to hold onto the seat, sucking away resources from other top battlegrounds. Many national GOP donors — who already shelled out big money to back Cornyn in the primary — and establishment Republicans fear Paxton would also be a drag down-ballot for the party.And Cornyn allies are furious that the president decided to jump in for the candidate they view as both morally objectionable and politically problematic for the general election.

“The vitriol is going to be real,” said a Texas Republican state lawmaker, who is supporting Cornyn and, like others in this article, was granted anonymity to speak freely without fear of retribution. “[Trump] has destroyed that trust there. No matter what we do for you, you will still stab us in the back. That’s what he did to Cornyn.”

Trump continued to stoke those divisions over the weekend, declaring on X that Cornyn was “VERY disloyal to me” and Paxton “WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!!!”

The White House didn’t respond to a request for comment.

“Would I want to be John Cornyn right now? Hell no,” said a Paxton campaign aide, who dismissed the personal attacks against the attorney general as a “D.C. talking point that they used on Donald Trump in 2016, 2024.”

The runoff’s result will either cement the influence of Trump’s loyal base, determined to knock out even the most conservative incumbents, or show that a growing number of Republicans are sick of the score-settling — and are willing to buck the president.

Should Paxton prevail, it would be a stunning defeat for Cornyn, who held the seat since 2002. Many Republicans have long viewed him as the most influential politician in Texas, and the liaison for the Lone Star State’s powerful GOP donor class. Texas’ deep-pocketed Republican businesspeople — who elicit pilgrimages from candidates across the country running for any office — have long respected and backed Cornyn, and they poured millions of dollars into his reelection campaign this cycle.

“To say he’s the most adored politician by the donor class in Texas is an understatement,” said one Washington GOP strategist close to Cornyn. “That’s why this is hard to come to grips with, because he was viewed as the gatekeeper to every major donor in the state, and there’s not a close second.”

Some among the GOP donor class say that if Paxton prevails the general election will be Trump’s problem to deal with, and think he will need to deploy MAGA Inc.’s $300 million war chest.

“With Trump going all in on Paxton, the larger ecosystem is looking to Trump to cover any additional costs to carry Paxton across the finish line there,” said one Republican Senate strategist. “The expectation is that the president has been on a winning streak. He knows how to win. But obviously winning requires resources, and the expectation is he will deploy his own.”

The Republican National Committee shrugged off any concerns about a Talarico-Paxton matchup.

“Texas is Trump country and Republicans are firmly united in crushing Low T Talarico and all six of his genders. Any bedwetting ‘Republican’ suggesting otherwise is talking nonsense to audition for a gig on MSDNC,” RNC spokesperson Zach Kraft said in a statement.

A Cornyn campaign aide, who was granted anonymity to discuss strategy, admitted that the Trump endorsement improves Paxton’s chances of winning, but said the campaign is pressing forward with its turnout strategy as planned and expects a close outcome. The campaign has posted some social media posts since the Trump endorsement with the hashtag #stillwithcornyn. Cornyn benefits from a deep slate of endorsements by statewide organizations, including influential agriculture groups, and continues to massively outspend Paxton on television advertising, the aide said.

“All these things, you start adding them up, it’s two points here, it’s three points there,” the aide said. “It explains why we believe we have a path.”

A Cornyn loss would be the latest defeat for the conservative brand of U.S. Senator that predated Trump but may not outlive him. Cornyn was well-respected in the GOP Senate conference, finishing second in his bid to be Senate majority leader in 2024.

In his announcement endorsing Paxton, Trump called Cornyn a “good man,” but criticized him for being “not supportive of me when times were tough.” Cornyn waited to endorse Trump’s reelection bid in 2024 until after the New Hampshire primary — which the president noted in his post.

“If Cornyn loses, he will be [the] last of the compassionate conservatives, and it will signal the end of years of Republican ascendancy in the Lone Star State,” said Mark McKinnon, a longtime GOP strategist and adviser to former President George W. Bush.

Earlier this month, Trump toppled Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who voted to convict Trump on impeachment charges related to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. Last week, the president also took out Rep. Thomas Massie, another top target of the White House who bucked him on releasing the Jeffrey Epstein files, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and war powers resolutions.

“In previous cycles you would have ideological comparisons — who’s more conservative,” said the Cornyn-aligned Washington GOP operative. “Trump changed the game. Now the question is, who’s the closest to Trump.”

The most recent independent polling — conducted in late April and early May by the University of Houston — shows the race in a statistical deadlock. But other indicators suggest Paxton was pulling away, even before Trump’s endorsement. A poll commissioned by a pro-Paxton super PAC in early May showed him with an 11-point cushion. And a more recent poll by a Democratic-aligned gun safety organization showed Paxton up 12 points.

Paxton, with the wind at his back, has already turned his attention to November. He said on Thursday he would pull all negative ads against Cornyn in the final days of the runoff, replacing them with attacks on Talarico.

He invited Cornyn to do the same, “for the good of our party.” Cornyn declined.

“We are going to continue to tell the truth about Paxton,” Cornyn wrote Thursday on social media. “He’s escaped accountability for too long. Judgment day is coming.”