Angry and alarmed

Senate Republicans angry and alarmed over Trump’s Paxton endorsement

The president's endorsement of Attorney General Ken Paxton has left many Republicans furious, and fearful Democrats can finally flip Texas.

By Liz Crampton, Andrew Howard and Jordain Carney

President Donald Trump’s last-minute endorsement of Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate primary set off panic among Republicans who worry that keeping the seat will now be a more expensive and potentially futile endeavor.

By endorsing Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn, Trump rejected the pleas of GOP leaders in Congress who for months had pushed Trump to back a proven winner in the Lone Star State. Now with Trump in his corner, Paxton is well situated to win the primary runoff next week and face Democratic nominee James Talarico in the general election — a matchup Democrats have dreamed of for months.

Trump’s long-awaited announcement was met with shock and dismay among Republicans on Capitol Hill.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said she was “supremely disappointed” by Trump’s decision, which she said “puts that seat in jeopardy.”

“How does that help strengthen the president’s hand? I mean, we lose a state like Texas?” she asked rhetorically.

Paxton has dealt with a litany of personal and political problems, including a federal securities fraud investigation and ongoing divorce. He is “an ethically challenged individual,” said Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), adding that Cornyn “deserved the president’s support.”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who spent months lobbying the president to back Cornyn, was tight-lipped in the moments after Trump named his pick: “It’s his decision.” He later vowed to “continue to be supportive of Senator Cornyn and his reelection.”

Meanwhile, Democrats quickly seized on Paxton’s likely nomination to say the party has a chance to win a Texas Senate race for the first time since 1988.

“I think we are going to win Texas,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters Tuesday on Capitol Hill.

And they appear willing to spend across the state’s sprawling, expensive media markets in order to make it happen.

“We remain bullish about Texas, and there is every likelihood we’ll make a mark there,” Lauren French, the spokesperson for the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC, said in a text message Tuesday following Trump’s decision.

The super PAC aligned with Schumer remains secretive before it places ad reservations, but Tuesday’s statement is the clearest indication yet that the party will unleash spending in the pricey state that has long eluded the party.

Democratic lawmakers encouraged the party to spend on the race.

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said matching up with Paxton would create a “perfect storm” for Democrats, who already saw an opening given Talarico’s relatively broad appeal and the political headwinds Republicans face due to high gas prices and Trump’s unpopularity.

“I believe it’s worth making the investment,” Khanna said.

“We should be playing everywhere, and we have to throw the ball long — especially considering we have very few opportunities going into the future to pick up some swing seats,” said Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.).

“I think gas prices might be $9 a gallon in Texas in the fall, so Mother Teresa would have a hard time winning as a Republican if this war continues for another six months,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), referring to the conflict with Iran.

Talarico, in a statement, said “it doesn’t matter who wins this runoff,” and blamed both Cornyn and Paxton for enriching “wealthy donors while costs skyrocket for the rest of us.”

Trump was ultimately swayed by Paxton’s loyalty — standing by Trump’s side during defining moments of his political career. As Texas’ attorney general, Paxton supported Trump’s quest to overturn the 2020 election results and was one of the first Republicans to support his second reelection bid.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump described Paxton as “someone who has been very loyal to me.” Paxton said he was “incredibly honored” to receive the endorsement.

Cornyn, in response, said Texas GOP voters must now decide “if they want a strong nominee to help our GOP candidates down ballot and defeat Talarico in November, or a weak nominee who jeopardizes everything we care about.”

Trump’s decision ignited some outrage in his broader political orbit. One senior Senate Republican operative, granted anonymity to speak freely, expressed frustration at the White House.

“He’s fucked us in the sense that that that now we’re going to have to spend money to keep this seat,” said the operative, estimating it may cost the party $100 million more to maintain GOP control.

Polling until this point showed the primary race within the margin of error, but many Texas Republicans believe that Trump’s backing will easily be enough to get Paxton over the line. Paxton has managed to stay competitive despite national Republicans spending millions on Cornyn’s behalf.

A poll commissioned by the Democratic-aligned gun safety group Giffords, conducted in early May before Trump’s endorsement and shared first with POLITICO, showed Paxton with a double-digit lead, 52 percent to 40 percent.

Some Cornyn allies insist Trump’s endorsement came too late in the race to make a significant difference, pointing to the incumbent’s fundraising advantage and his strong get-out-the-vote operation as his path to victory.

“The endorsement would’ve made a difference two weeks ago,” said one longtime Texas Republican operative who backs Cornyn who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the effect of Trump’s endorsement. “Cornyn has the more sophisticated GOTV operation. Paxton has a strong base, but he already hit his ceiling.”

But some Republicans concede that nominating Paxton gives an edge to Democrats, who have been salivating for months at the prospect of going toe-to-toe with an attorney general who has long been dogged by controversy.

“Democrats now have a better chance to get the matchup they want,” said Vinny Minchillo, a Texas Republican consultant. “I do think we ultimately hold the seat.”

In South Texas, where a stagnant economy and tough immigration enforcement has soured many Latino voters on Trump, Paxton’s reputation as an immigration hardliner could spell trouble.

“Nobody trusts him down here,” said Mario Guerrero, a three-time Trump voter who heads the South Texas Builders Association. “I haven’t heard one positive thing [about Paxton].”

Senate Leadership Fund, the top GOP-aligned Senate super PAC, has long said that a Paxton primary win would cost the party huge sums of cash in November. One Nation, an SLF-aligned nonprofit, has spent more than $10 million on ads backing the incumbent in hopes of forestalling a much costlier rescue mission later. The same calculation was made by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which has gone as far as calling Cornyn the “only one Republican that can beat” a Democrat this fall. Public polls have shown Talarico competitive against both Cornyn and Paxton in the race. An early February polling memo from the National Republican Senatorial Committee found him leading Talarico by 3 points, while Paxton would trail the Democrat by 3 points.

Those same groups will likely have to offset Paxton’s massive fundraising gap with Talarico so far. Talarico has raised over $40 million and has just under $10 million in the bank, per his latest Federal Election Commission filing. Paxton has raised less than Talarico’s cash on hand, bringing in $7.8 million for the cycle with $2.3 million available, according to his most recent filing.

Trump’s super PAC is sitting on more than $300 million and could come in to rescue Paxton, but so far little is known about how or if MAGA Inc. will deploy its cash in the midterms.