GOP money panic

Paxton win sparks GOP money panic

The challenge for both parties is that Texas is a uniquely expensive state to campaign in.

By Alex Gangitano, Erin Doherty, Jessica Piper and Samuel Benson

Republicans are bracing for a Texas-sized cash drain.

After Attorney General Ken Paxton’s win over Sen. John Cornyn on Tuesday, nine state and national GOP strategists and donors told POLITICO they fear that their already record-breaking Senate primary will become an even more costly general election campaign — one that siphons party resources from key battlegrounds.

Some of them estimate the race could force the party to spend as much as $150 million for Paxton in a state that Republicans never expected to be truly competitive. A Democrat has not won statewide office in Texas since 1994.

But Paxton, a polarizing figure who many national GOP donors have been hesitant to embrace given his extensive baggage, is facing off against state Rep. James Talarico, a prolific fundraiser and candidate widely viewed as a rising star within the Democratic Party, setting up a potential once-in-a-generation clash in the Lone Star State. And everything is bigger in Texas — including the cost of running a campaign.

“We’re a big state, we have a lot of people, 30 million plus Texans, we have 20 media markets,” said Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas-based Republican consultant who ran Cornyn’s 2014 campaign. “So it takes millions of dollars to not only run television and radio ads, but to reach the population through mail and digital ads and text messages.”

One GOP donor compared the late stages of the Texas runoff — which came to a head when President Donald Trump issued his 11th hour endorsement of Paxton — to a “horror movie.”

“It means that $100 million will have to go to bail out the Texas seat instead of helping win seats in Maine, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and elsewhere,” said the person, who, like many others in this article, was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Last night will go down as one of the worst self-inflicted political wounds of all-time.”

“No one is happier than Democrats. Even if Paxton holds the seat — as is likely, though not guaranteed — donor funds will be diverted from critical races,” a second GOP donor concurred. “And Cornyn, one of the Republicans’ best fundraisers, will be sidelined.”

Cornyn, whose long political career came to an end this week, was expected to shoulder more of the general election burden himself as a strong fundraiser with a deep network of longtime donors, built from his stint as chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. But Paxton’s fundraising has lagged, and he’ll likely need to rely on national Republican groups — and President Donald Trump’s $350 million MAGA Inc. war chest — to compete.

Some Senate Republicans expect Trump to foot the bill to carry Paxton over the finish line.

“Talarico’s going to raise all sorts of cash,” said a Senate GOP strategist. “There’s a very clear view that Trump took out one of the largest, most successful fundraisers in Senate history, and it’s a huge hole to fill. So the expectation is that Trump will fill that hole. He’s a prolific fundraiser and has a huge war chest.”

Trump congratulated Paxton on his victory in a Truth Social post early Wednesday morning and said he “will do some nice, big, beautiful rallies for Ken,” whom he endorsed last week. But a spokesperson for MAGA Inc. declined to provide details of their strategy: “We don’t disclose our battle plans through the press,” spokesperson Alex Pfeiffer said.

The tensions over money come as Republicans face a tough midterm environment: Trump’s approval ratings remain well underwater, gas prices are up more than 50 percent since February and the unpopular war in Iran has not come to a clean end. Democrats are growing more bullish about their chances of flipping the House and the Senate each day.

Some within the GOP have worried the White House is misreading the political landscape and underestimating voters’ frustrations by not doing more to boost candidates in key Senate battlegrounds, like Maine, North Carolina and Georgia.

Other Republican super PACs have also raised big bucks, led by the Senate Leadership Fund, which had $166 million in the bank at the end of March. But those funds, though massive, are still finite. And an expensive state like Texas risks eating into them quickly.

GOP donors are “very frustrated” that Paxton will require more fundraising help in the general election than they think Cornyn would have, said a former Trump administration official, who has been having conversations with many of them. “They hate seeing their time wasted on a state that leans Republican. They want their money on offense, not defense,” the person said.

A third GOP donor compared Paxton to former Republican Rep. Todd Akin, who lost his 2012 bid for a Missouri Senate seat to then-Democrat Sen. Claire McCaskill when he said a body can shut down a pregnancy in the event of a “legitimate rape.”

“Texas is a complex place. The question is, can you get a deep number of MAGA voters… and then get Cornyn establishment voters to convert to [Paxton]?” the person said. “That’s going to be difficult, and so you’re gonna have to spend a lot of money .”

The potential for Texas to suck up major resources goes both ways. If Democrats are serious about engaging, their donors and party groups will need to pony up, too — and their major super PACs have lagged Republicans in fundraising so far.

“Texas is not breaking its 32-year Republican streak for a woke freak who thinks there are six genders,” said Republican National Committee spokesperson Zach Kraft. “If Democrats want to light a pile of cash on fire, we will hand them the match.”

The more than $40 million that Talarico has already raised, while significant at this early stage in the race, is just a small fraction of what the total spending would be if outside groups from both parties get involved. There are also questions over how much Democratic-affiliated groups may ultimately be willing to spend, as they eye much cheaper targets in states like Iowa and Alaska, where they’ve already pledged resources.

Democrats “remain bullish about Texas,” said Lauren French, the spokesperson for the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC, adding “there is every likelihood we’ll make a mark there.”

Republicans are already looking to negatively define Talarico as the general election kicks off in earnest. A pro-Paxton super PAC released an ad last week branding the state representative as “weak” and “weird.” Talarico, after the runoff, made an appeal to Cornyn voters for their support and characterized some of his past controversial comments as mistakes.

The challenge for both parties is that Texas is a uniquely expensive state to campaign in. Its more than 18 million registered voters are dispersed across 20 different television markets, the most of any state. Driving from one side of the state to the other takes at least 12 hours. And the state’s diversity — Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley, multiracial cities, sprawling suburbs and vast rural agricultural swaths — prove vastly different from one another in how candidates seek to tailor their messages.

“Paxton’s nomination signals that Republicans are going to have to spend a lot more money than they wanted to in Texas, and Democrats need to spend a lot more money than they anticipated in order to take advantage of an opportunity,” said Matt Angle, a longtime Texas Democratic strategist.

Early general election polling shows Talarico holds a slight lead over Paxton.

The high cost of the state has some Democrats looking elsewhere. Oath, a Democratic-aligned fundraising platform that helps donors give to campaigns where their dollars will have the largest impact, has given a relatively low score to Talarico, due to the sheer amount of money that will be poured in. Brian Derrick, Oath’s cofounder, anticipates total spending in the Talarico-Paxton general election will surpass $550 million.

“The types of donors we’re advising are looking for maximum [return on investment] of their donations,” Derrick said. “And the Talarico race in particular isn’t going to be high ROI if you’re donating $1,000. It’s going to be mostly fought out by super PACs that are funded by seven- or eight-figure donors, in large part.”

The 2024 Texas Senate race, which was not a premier race for either party, still attracted $210 million in spending, according to data from the ad tracking firm AdImpact. The plurality of that came from the campaign of Democratic candidate Colin Allred, who dropped $85 million on ads, while both parties’ major super PAC arms played only small roles.

The final week of that race alone saw $35 million spent across TV and digital ads, according to AdImpact. But with Paxton as the Republican nominee and Democrats putting the state in focus in what they hope will be a wave year, the totals are likely to far exceed that.

“It is unfortunate that lots of financial resources have been spent on a primary contest for a Senate seat we already hold, when resources could have been made available for a competitive seat that we would like to get back,” said one Georgia-based GOP strategist. Republicans in Georgia are locked in a bitter June runoff for the state’s Senate seat.

Paxton’s victory in the primary came despite being wildly outspent by Cornyn and his allies. The attorney general’s Senate campaign committee had just $2.3 million in the bank as of earlier this month.

He’s already ramping up fundraising for the general election and has plans for a fundraiser with lobbyists on June 2, according to an invitation obtained by POLITICO. The event will be hosted by AxAdvocacy — the lobbying firm linked to GOP strategist Jeff Roe’s consulting firm Axiom Strategies, which Paxton hired to run his race. The invite lists Texas Sen. Ted Cruz as a special guest.

The attorney general has acknowledged it will be an expensive race, thanks in large part to his opponent’s fundraising ability. “I need your help,” he said in his victory speech Tuesday night. “We know James Talarico is going to raise more money than any Democrat in America.”

Indeed, within two hours of Paxton’s victory, Talarico hauled in $600,000, his campaign said — the strongest two-hour stretch of his entire campaign.