Becerra opening lead

Poll shows Becerra opening lead in California governor’s race

The Democratic frontrunner is in position to draw a Republican matchup in November.

By Jeremy B. White

Xavier Becerra has opened a sizable advantage over his closest Democratic rival in the California governor’s race, according to a new Public Policy Institute of California poll, positioning him as the favorite heading into the final week of the primary.

The mid-May PPIC tally puts Becerra atop the primary field with 23 percent of the vote, followed by Republican Steve Hilton at 20 percent. Both Becerra and Hilton have created separation from Becerra’s closest Democratic rival, Tom Steyer, who registered 15 percent support.

Barring a major political disaster, that outcome would put Becerra on a glide path to succeeding Gov. Gavin Newsom, given California’s overwhelmingly Democratic electorate.

“He’s in a very strong position now,” said PPIC Statewide Survey Director Mark Baldassare. “If there are two Democrats, we’ll see what happens, but if it’s a Democrat and a Republican, we know what the voter registration shows in California.”

Steyer’s campaign pushed back on the poll, noting it did not capture the latter part of May — a period in which Steyer has increased his attacks on Becerra, running advertisements that highlight his support from the oil industry.

Democrats have spent months fretting that two Republicans could squeak past a crowded Democratic field, boxing the majority party out of the November election. But the latest polling suggests they are more likely to see a long-serving Democratic official advance next week, maintaining their party’s 20-year lock on the governorship.

While a Becerra-versus-Hilton matchup could remove much of the drama from the governor’s race, the poll showed several ballot initiatives are likely to be far more competitive fights.

A proposed one-time wealth tax on California’s billionaires currently has a 54-45 lead with voters, PPIC found — a solid starting point. But that number comes before a well-funded opposition has fully revved up. Billionaires have already poured money into counter-measures and an early ad salvo, and they are likely to outspend the health care union backing the measure.

A Republican-backed bid to require voter identification at the polls starts in a much more precarious place. Just 49 percent of voters supported the proposal, while 71 percent of registered Democrats and 58 percent of independent voters opposed it — blocs likely receptive to arguments framing the idea as an extension of President Donald Trump’s agenda.

Neither the voter identification measure nor the wealth tax have formally qualified for the November ballot, although proponents have submitted enough signatures for both to suggest that’s likely.

And despite Democratic furor around the risk of a general election lockout, 59 percent of Californians like the state’s nonpartisan primary system in which the top two vote-getters advance. That suggests an incipient effort to do away with top- two could have trouble gaining traction.