Avoid civil war on immigration

House GOP makes final push to avoid civil war on immigration

Republicans are meeting behind closed doors to tamp down a clash between between moderates and conservatives.

By RACHAEL BADE

House Republicans are meeting Thursday morning in a last-ditch effort to stave off an ugly intra-party immigration skirmish in the middle of a hotly-contested midterm election campaign.

But even before the gathering started, pessimism was pulsing through the Capitol.

Publicly, lawmakers have tried to put a positive spin on things. But privately, multiple sources on both sides of the debate told POLITICO that conservatives and moderates, who’ve huddled in Speaker Paul Ryan’s office for hours over the past few weeks, have been unable to come to an agreement about what to do with Dreamers.

So Ryan did not endorse a compromise bill at the meeting — one does not currently exist — but laid out the status of such negotiations and asked his colleagues what they want to do, multiple leadership sources say.

“No deal,” said House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows as he exited the speaker’s office during a Wednesday afternoon negotiation session with moderates. “No smoke.”

Should the closed-door meeting end in stalemate, as most expect, moderates will take the final steps to buck their own party and join with Democrats to force votes on shielding hundreds of thousands of young undocumented immigrants from deportation. The group is just three votes shy of the 218 signatures needed to trigger those roll calls, with all but one Democrat joining the two-dozen swing-district GOP moderates.

Should moderates circumvent their party leadership and force the issue on the floor, many expect a bill giving Dreamers a path to citizenship, with only modest border enforcement, to pass. That would be a huge embarrassment for Republicans who control the chamber.

President Donald Trump ended the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program nine months ago. But the political impetus to strike a deal addressing Dreamers’ futures evaporated after the Supreme Court announced it would rule on the matter late this year or early next.

Republicans have demanded Democrats agree to a border wall with Mexico as well as a host of other conservative immigration policies curbing legal immigration in order to codify the Obama-era program. But the truth is, they’ve been unable to find agreement even amongst themselves — a months-long standoff that’s led to this moment.

Moderates say they are sick of waiting and that’s why they’re forcing the issue now — despite GOP leaders’ warnings that it could divide the party during a tough election year.

Rep. Mark Amodei, who signed the discharge petition, left the meeting saying there was no deal at the moment. And he defended his decision to sign the petition, arguing the process allows people’s voices to be heard.

“To somehow say this is ‘ceding control of the floor to Nancy Pelosi,’ I believe, is an inaccurate statement,” he said, describing leadership’s argument for opposing the petition. “I did what I thought was right. … I’m happy to take that responsibility.”

Moderates told GOP leaders several weeks ago that they would hold off on forcing the immigration votes if conservatives commit to a path to citizenship for Dreamers. Moderates say they’re willing to accept cuts to legal immigration, a border wall and just about anything conservatives might ask for — so long as Dreamers get a path into the legal system without having to first exit the country.

Currently, Dreamers who want to become citizens must either marry a U.S. citizen or leave the United States and return to their home nations. Moderates want them to be able to apply for green cards from here, something some conservatives have labelled a “special pathway” to citizenship.

But while conservatives initially suggested they’d think about the idea, sources familiar with the tightly-held talks say the House Freedom Caucus is still reluctant to accept that. Conservatives, according to one source following the talks closely, may only back permanent deferred deportation status for the undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children by their parents.

Ryan opened the GOP conference meeting by reiterating that the point of the talks was to head off the discharge petition. He said this wasn't a leadership-driven plan and that members needed to come to an agreement. He also highlighted Trump's proposal to codify DACA and beef up the border, which many conservative say doesn't go far enough. And he walked through the status of talks, including areas of agreement on Homeland Security Committee Chairman Michael McCaul's border security bill.

The two sides over the past few days have agreed that elements of McCaul‘s measure could be put in place over time as certain DACA goals were met. Moderates also agreed to support ending "catch and release," a policy where authorities release undocumented immigrants caught at the border into the country until a court is ready to hear their case. Undocumented immigrants sometimes never show up for their court dates and disappear into the country.

Moderates have also agreed to cuts to certain family-based visas — but only in return for citizenship for Dreamers.

However, Freedom Caucus members aren’t the only ones who oppose a bill providing citizenship. House Rules Committee Chairman Pete Sessions said walking into the meeting that Dreamers should not be given a pathway to citizenship — and he's never been considered a member of the far-right.

Unless a deal is reached in the GOP conference meeting Thursday, which could run three or more hours, moderates say they’ll add the final three signatures to the petition to set up immigration votes on June 25. They expect Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Fla.), who is retiring, and Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) to add their names to the discharge petition.

The last signature would then likely fall to the single Democratic holdout, Henry Cuellar of Texas. Moderate Republican sources seem confident that Democratic leaders can convince Cuellar to join them so long as they can deliver two additional votes Thursday.

Conservatives, meanwhile, are banking on GOP leaders to peel off just enough moderates to keep the discharge petition from reaching the 218 needed. That would stop the matter altogether, avoiding an embarrassing GOP fight on the House floor in late June.