Intelligence assessments

Mr. President, get ready for Erdogan unplugged

By Samantha Vinograd

Every week, I offer a glimpse of the kind of intelligence assessments that are likely to come across the desk of the president of the United States.

Modeled on the President's Daily Briefing, or PDB, which the director of national intelligence prepares for the president almost daily, my Presidential Weekly Briefing focuses on the topics and issues President Trump needs to know to make informed decisions.

Here's this week's briefing:

Russia's having a ball

With National Security Adviser John Bolton in Russia this week, we assess that the Russian government is having a ball -- and it's not just because they are hosting the World Cup.

Vladimir Putin is the hottest ticket in town this summer. Ahead of your own meeting with Putin in July, it is clear that a bilateral meeting between the two of you is not a unique matchup -- he's inviting everyone he can to play ball. He's had a steady drumbeat of meetings with all of America's friends, from France's Emmanuel Macron and Germany's Angela Merkel to Japan's Shinzo Abe and India's Narendra Modi. Even if he's in the penalty box for hacking elections around the world, accusations of poisoning former Russian spies in the UK and supporting Assad, Putin's roster is full of world leaders who are keen to meet, talk shop, and sign some real deals.

Our ally President Moon of South Korea just met Putin in Russia. This is the first time a South Korean President has made an official visit to Russia since 1999. This was a major move by Moon, likely aimed at maintaining momentum on the diplomatic denuclearization track (Putin's a big supporter of diplomacy with North Korea). But Putin likely considers Moon's visit to Russia another score for himself; with his Cold War-era, rose-colored glasses, he probably sees this visit as one more US ally moving closer to Russia.

He will use every opportunity at his disposal to meet, cajole, and strategize with other heads of state -- bonus points when it's with our allies. He'll use US policy decisions on tariffs and Iran alongside economic and investment carrots to build up team Russia, which means an emptier bench for us.

As you prepare for your own bilateral with Putin, we want to flag that alongside this positive momentum externally, there is some domestic rain on Putin's parade. Russian state pollsters have shown his favorability declining, with some figures putting his approval at 72%, down from 79% last month. Putin is expected to raise the retirement age soon from 63 to 65 for men and from 55 to 60 for women, which could be partially responsible for his declining popularity. But, it's all relative -- Putin doesn't run a democracy, so dips in public approval are just a minor bump in the road. Don't expect him to be swayed.

Erdogan: Oops, he did it again

Mr. President you may need to get ready for Recep Tayyip Erdogan unplugged. In Sunday's election, the President of Turkey was elected to serve another term. But with expanded executive authority, we assess he will be more aggressive internally and in pursuing Turkey's external agenda in places like Syria.

Turks went to the polls Sunday to cast their votes in snap presidential and parliamentary elections. President Erdogan purposefully called these elections a year early because he thought he had a good chance to beat out any opposition.

By no coincidence, before this snap election Erdogan backed a massive constitutional overhaul that gives the Turkish president more executive powers. A narrow majority of Turks endorsed it in a referendum, so Erdogan can now rule with more power.

For 15 years, first as prime minister and now as president, Erdogan has weakened democracy in Turkey by consistently consolidating power and curtailing democratic freedoms like a free press and judiciary system. Turkey is still under a state of emergency, which Erdogan put in place after the failed coup attempt in 2016.

The state of emergency has given Erdogan a carte blanche to head the cabinet and rule the country by decree with limited oversight, crowding out opposition voices under the guise of security, including by controlling the media. Pro-government companies own 90% of the news media. Turkey now has imprisoned the largest number of journalists in the world.

Fresh off a win, we should expect more Erdogan unplugged. The Erdogan executive presidency means no prime minister, and Erdogan could now legally issue decrees unencumbered and have more authority over the supposedly independent judiciary and civil service .

Immigration: It's no walk in the park

Illegal immigrants' lives, and their journeys to our southern border, are no walk through Central Park.

These immigrants are often fleeing unstable and unsafe conditions at home, and they encounter violence on their journey to our southern border. One independent study by Doctors Without Borders found that 68% of migrants treated had been the victim of violence during their transit through Mexico, and the US Fund for UNICEF reported that "thousands of children from Central America risk being kidnapped, trafficked, raped, or killed" on their journey away from gang violence and poverty in their home countries.

• Mexico: Mexicans remain the largest origin group among illegal immigrants, but their overall percentage of the total number of illegal immigrants has been declining since 2007, when they accounted for 57% of the total. In 2016 they made up just about half . Various factors drive illegal immigration by Mexicans: poverty numbers in Mexico are estimated by the CIA at about 46% of the population, high crime rates are fueling drug and gang-related violence, and 2017 was the most murderous year on record. These are all drivers of illegal immigration.

Central American countries account for about 50% of illegal immigrants, including the Northern Triangle countries of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. Crime is so rampant there that the State Department has issued an advisory against traveling to any of these countries.

Your State Department issued a multiyear US Strategy for Central America which aims to enhance US security by addressing the real drivers of illegal immigration. Below is a snapshot of some of those economic and security drivers. We assess that addressing these underlying conditions in origin countries will be the real deterrent to illegal immigration.

• Honduras: 30% of the population in Honduras lives in poverty, and the population is plagued by "alarming levels of crime and violence." It is a prime transit point for the "smuggling of arms, drugs, and people" and governance structures are weak. With 55% of Hondurans living in cities, illegal immigrants from Honduras tend to come from urban centers which are gripped by gang violence. Gender-based violence against women is also a real issue, with one report indicating that it is the second-leading cause of death for women of reproductive age.
• Guatemala: With the largest population in Central America -- around 15 million people -- Guatemala also faces high levels of violence. The State Department notes that Guatemalans are gripped by "endemic poverty, food insecurity, severe violence, citizen insecurity." USAID estimates that one of every two children under the age of five are chronically malnourished and reports publicly that Guatemala is a transit country for human traffickers, drugs, and contraband. Homicide rates have remained above 34 per 100,000 for the past decade.
• El Salvador: El Salvador became the most violent country not at war in 2015. Gangs like MS-13 are responsible for much of the violence. Today, El Salvador's astronomical homicide rate is 11 times higher than that of the United States. The US State Department notes that "endemic crime, corruption, and impunity threaten El Salvador's progress."