Again?

New York stunner rattles Capuano primary

Challenger Pressley sees boost in interest following Ocasio-Cortez win.

By LAUREN DEZENSKI

 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s shock victory over New York Rep. Joe Crowley delivered an adrenaline shot to Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley’s campaign to upset Rep. Michael Capuano this fall.

The parallels aren’t hard to miss: Like Ocasio-Cortez, Pressley is a woman of color challenging a 10-term white male who represents a majority-minority district. And the two women have made common cause in recent weeks. Ocasio-Cortez called on Massachusetts voters Wednesday to “vote her in next,” referring to Pressley.

The Pressley campaign says it’s seen a burst of interest over the last 24 hours thanks to the Ocasio-Cortez victory. Website traffic at AyannaPressley.com has spiked 56 percent – most of which came from people Googling Pressley, and the candidate has gained 4,000 new followers on Twitter and at least 100 new small-dollar donations. That’s on top of new volunteers streaming into the recently opened campaign headquarters in Jamaica Plain. They’ve “been putting folks who didn’t know ‘AP’ yesterday to work all day,” according to Pressley campaign manager Sarah Groh.

But Capuano’s allies say that he’s no Crowley. While Crowley raised millions this cycle, he showed few signs of taking the primary challenge seriously. Crowley skipped two debates, sending a surrogate to one of them and spurring a rebuke from the New York Times editorial board days before the election.

Capuano, meanwhile, has moved aggressively to lock down endorsements — especially from those who might have potentially backed Pressley, like Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, the Congressional Black Caucus PAC and former Gov. Deval Patrick.

“He is not taking anything for granted in this campaign – and never has in any election,” said Capuano’s spokesperson Audrey Coulter. “The fact is, because of Donald Trump we’re in the fight of our lives and we believe people here will recognize that we need to keep Mike’s experience, proven skill, and strength in that fight.”

For Pressley, though, Ocasio-Cortez’s win is proof that an incumbent Democrat can be beat in the primary.

“The job description for representatives in Congress has changed,” Pressley told POLITICO. “In deep blue districts like New York's 14th and the Massachusetts 7th, voters are asking for more than a reliable vote - they are asking for committed, activist leadership.”

“It opens up people’s minds,” Erin O’Brien, a political science professor at the University of Massachusetts Boston, said of Ocasio-Cortez’s win. “It makes Capuano’s supporters all the more nervous - and with Pressley supporters, it gives more energy to that campaign.”

Both Ocasio-Cortez and Pressley have leaned into their similarities. After connecting over Twitter, the two candidates first met June 6 in Manhattan at a hip fundraiser for Pressley hosted by musician Questlove, comedian Amy Schumer, Erika Soto Lamb and actress Amber Tamblyn. Pressley built a friendship with Tamblyn during time together on the campaign trail for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

A week before New York’s primary election day, Pressley sent a campaign staffer to Queens to work on GOTV operations for Ocasio-Cortez’s campaign. Pressley’s campaign is open to a similar move from Ocasio-Cortez, but said its not expecting reciprocity.

Ocasio-Cortez has vowed to create a “corporate PAC-free caucus” with Pressley and similar candidates like Cori Bush in Missouri, Chardo Richardson in Florida, and others in Congress.

Last night’s result in New York’s 14th district - the first incumbent Democrat unseated by a primary challenger this year - could serve as a cautionary tale for Capuano. Just as in the Pressley-Capuano race, Ocasio-Cortez questioned whether Crowley's identity as a white male incumbent made him the right fit for such a diverse, majority-minority district.

“The energy and the excitement level around new candidates and new ideas is real,” says Democratic strategist Doug Rubin. “There is real energy and real desire for people who would not go to Washington to work, but who would go to Washington to change it.”

Still, the politics in Massachusetts are different. Crowley was seen as a more moderate Democrat, while Capuano is one of the few liberal members of Congress who didn't even attend Trump's inauguration.

“I would think that he would be ripe for the picking if he wasn’t doing his job,” said Steve Tolman, head of the Massachusetts AFL-CIO, which has backed Capuano. “The bottom line is this is not the time to be an incumbent if you’re not doing your job. People are fed up, I think. But the truth is, Mike Capuano, look, the guy’s engaged.”

And if Capuano is no Crowley, Pressley is no Ocasio-Cortez. The New York political newcomer is a Democratic Socialist, still closely tied to the Bernie Sanders coalition. There is some policy and demographic overlap (both call for the abolition of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, for example), but Pressley, a Clinton supporter, has been more aligned to the institutional core of the Democratic party.

Pressley, as an eight-year Boston City Councilor, has built a national profile as a surrogate for Democratic candidates like Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, and Maura Healey.

“First and foremost, in politics, if you have the choice between being good and lucky, pick lucky every time. Ayanna Pressley got very lucky last night with the win over Joe Crowley,” said Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh. “The question now is can Ayanna now make good on this opportunity to jumpstart her campaign again?”