The four horsemen...

The four truths about tax reform

From POLITICO

The tax reform debate has been humming along behind closed doors. It’s about to go public. Here are some things to keep in mind. PLAYBOOK’S FOUR TRUTHS ABOUT TAX REFORM:

-- THIS TAX PLAN WILL LIVE AND DIE 1 MILLION TIMES. We’ve seen it before: legislation gets declared dead as a doornail, and then is revived, brought back to life and passes with much fanfare. Expect ups and downs here. Right now, the issue at hand is the state and local tax deduction. Lawmakers from high-tax states say they don’t want to scrap it, and if they don’t get assurances, some have threatened that they’ll take down the budget. Remember that this process will be like a rollercoaster. Take it with a grain of salt when some random lawmaker opines on the prospects of the bill, or the process. Until Paul Ryan or Mitch McConnell pull the plug, this thing is alive and kicking. Brian Faler on “Six things that could derail the GOP’s tax plans”: http://politi.co/2y6H0tq

-- IGNORE THE TIMEFRAME. There really is no deadline to get tax reform done. The end-of-the-year proclamations are silly, according to most of the people we talk to. This could -- and many think it should -- take time. It’s tough (just ask the WSJ’s Rich Rubin). It’s complicated. Congress is rewriting the entire tax code -- and that affects everyone in the United States. Plenty of lawmakers tell us it SHOULD take something like six months.

-- A 60-40 PROPOSITION, AT BEST, NOT A DONE DEAL. At the end of the day, all the senior aides and lawmakers we speak to say that this remains, at best, a 60-40 proposition. Yeah, Republicans feel pretty good about where things are. But that’s mostly out of fear of losing their majorities. Many things can stop this process dead in its tracks.

-- THIS IS UNLIKELY TO BE HUGELY BIPARTISAN. Some Republicans want you to believe that Democrats are knocking on their doors to vote for whatever they produce. It’s not true. They might pick up one or two in the Senate. But this is a Grand Ole’ Party production.