Catalan crisis

7 key Catalan crisis questions

Early election changes dynamics in the battle over independence.

By DIEGO TORRES

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy seized the initiative in the Catalan crisis by not just imposing direct rule after the regional parliament declared independence but also calling an election much earlier than expected.

Most politicians had anticipated that the central government would be in charge of Catalonia for months. The pro-independence camp hoped it would become a kind of Vietnam (without the war) for Rajoy — with his government getting bogged down and losing support in the face of widespread civil disobedience.

Some unionists thought a prolonged period of direct rule would help their cause — as the secessionists would not control regional public media or be able, as detractors of independence claim, to give subsidies to like-minded civic groups.

But by calling a regional election on December 21, Rajoy has wrong-footed almost everyone — and forced the pro-independence camp to decide whether to take part in an election run by Madrid or face years locked out of the regional institutions.

Carles Puigdemont, removed as the regional president by the Spanish government Friday, called on Catalans to exert “democratic opposition” to direct rule by Madrid. His deputy Oriol Junqueras said Puigdemont continued to be the “president of the country” in an opinion piece Sunday.

Yet no country in the world has recognized the Catalan Republic since it was proclaimed Friday and no separatist leader has so far provided a roadmap with a path to viability. Instead, most seem to be getting ready for a snap election under Madrid’s rules.

Here are seven questions at the heart of the Catalan crisis as it plays out in the coming weeks:

1. Who’s in charge of Catalonia right now?

The central government’s Cabinet has taken over running the Catalan autonomous administration under Article 155 of the constitution — an unprecedented move, approved by the Spanish Senate Friday.

Puigdemont and all members of his executive council have been fired. Spanish Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría has become the de facto president of Catalonia. Spanish ministers have assumed the powers of their counterparts in the Catalan government. All but one of the Catalan representative offices abroad have been ordered closed.

Madrid has taken especially swift action in replacing the chain of command of the regional police, the Mossos d’Esquadra, whose loyalty was questioned following the disputed October 1 referendum on independence. Departing police chiefs accepted the orders and called on all officers to respect the new authorities, which is good news for Rajoy.

In other departments, however, Madrid has left in place the power structure of the pro-independence administration, composed of around 140 second-tier political posts in the different departments. That’s been seen as a welcome sign of pragmatism by moderate nationalists, with Madrid seeking to maintain the smooth running of the  administration.

2. Will there be civil resistance?

The only massive street mobilization after the proclamation of the Catalan Republic has been one opposing that move. Hundreds of thousands took to the streets of Barcelona on Sunday in the second show of force by anti-independence supporters in the past few weeks. These groups had been fragmented and lethargic for a long time but the independence push seems to have awakened them.

Yet much can change in the coming weeks. The first test will come as soon as Monday, when Puigdemont and his Cabinet members must decide whether they will try to go to work in their old offices in the morning. What will happen if the regional police is ordered to block their entrance or evict them once they’re in?

In any case, Rajoy’s tack change has forced the independence camp to reconsider its tactics too. “The plan was to resist at all costs,” said a senior member of the Catalan National Assembly, one of the leading secessionist civil groups. He said the secessionists would probably now implement a much “softer” strategy that avoids confrontation but makes clear they don’t accept direct rule.

3. Will pro-independence groups run in the election?

Pro-independence groups need to choose between implicitly accepting Madrid’s direct rule by taking part in the regional election, and boycotting the ballot, running the risk of being shut out of political institutions.

The two leading secessionist political groups — Puigdemont’s center-right PDeCAT and Junqueras’ center-left ERC — haven’t taken a public stance yet. The leadership of both parties will meet Monday to discuss the issue.

Former Catalan President Artur Mas warned in an interview this month that a regional chamber controlled by unionists “would be lethal for Catalonia.”

Senior figures in these parties believe they will find a way to take part in the ballot — possibly by arguing that the election is a way to strengthen the newly-created country. The annual €34 billion public budget of Catalonia has proven a key tool for the pro-independence camp to advance its cause in defiance of the central government. Or, as one Catalan political leader put it: “It’s really cold outside the institutions.”

Whether the smaller partner in the independence alliance, the radical-left CUP, will take part in the election is another question. The CUP may be tempted to boycott the ballot, but it’s not clear that such a decision would change the balance of power in the Catalan parliament. Their vote share was around 8 percent in the last election in 2015 and many of their supporters could opt to vote for Junqueras’ ERC (Catalan Republican Left).

4. Who will emerge as leader of the independence camp?

While the liberal Ciudadanos and the Catalan Socialists —  the strongest parties in the unionist camp — look in good shape to face the election, the December 21 vote has caught the pro-independence parties off guard.

Leading secessionist parties, PDeCAT and ERC, ran on a joint ticket under the name Junts pel Sí (Together for Yes) in the 2015 regional election. It’s not clear that they will do the same this time round. One PDeCAT lawmaker put the chances at 50 percent.

The relationship between the two parties is tense after ERC lawmakers accused Puigdemont of treason last week — when he was expected to make a statement backing down from independence plans.

The center-left ERC has also replaced the center-right PDeCAT as the biggest player in the independence camp. All polls put ERC ahead in voting intentions and see Junqueras as the most likely regional president. PDeCAT, in contrast, would need to choose a new presidential candidate, as Puigdemont has long said he won’t run for another term.

There’s speculation that PDeCAT could choose a more moderate leader who would find a way of working with Madrid in the coming years. One PDeCAT lawmaker said it would be electoral suicide for the party to back down from independence now — but he suggested things could change after the election. An election defeat for pro-independence parties would pave the way for the party to justify such a tack change, he said.

5. Will the ballot solve anything?

Most polls continue to depict Catalan society as evenly split on independence. Some surveys forecast that secessionist parties — which won 48 percent of the vote and an absolute majority of seats in the regional chamber in 2015 — will maintain their small advantage. Others predict they will lose their majority.

In any case, a clearly unionist Catalan government led by Ciudadanos — which would be the best potential result for unity supporters — is a very remote possibility. If the separatists lose their absolute majority, Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau’s far-left alliance Catalunya en Comú is likely to become kingmaker — and they’d be very reluctant to back Ciudadanos.

Such a result, in contrast, could pave the way for a coalition based on broader political ideologies rather than the independence issue. The pro-independence camp and pro-unity Left, for example, could attempt to form a ruling coalition prioritizing social policy over nation-building — but that’s a long shot yet.

6. Will support for independence start to wane?

The regional election will test the resilience of even the most committed independence supporters. They were promised the birth of a Catalan Republic in the regional ballot in 2015 and in the referendum on October 1. Can they mobilize again for another electoral challenge — and for the trials ahead after that?

The Catalan government’s efforts to present independence as an attractive and somehow riskless endeavor have been significantly undermined in the past few weeks.

A protest in Barcelona on October 2, a day after hundreds were injured in a police crackdown during Catalonia’s independence referendum | Pierre-Philippe Marcou/AFP via Getty Images
First, with nearly 1,700 companies moving their legal headquarters out of the region after the referendum, many people have realized that breaking away from Spain result in tough economic consequences. Second, the lack of any meaningful international backing for the independence push has been hard to digest for many who had hoped the EU would rally to their side. Third, the mobilization of the unionist camp has surprised many separatists, some of whom have responded by angrily branding their opponents far-right militants or foreigners.

7. What could be a game-changer?

The Catalan conflict has become totally unpredictable in the past few weeks and may well spring more surprises. One factor that could alter the picture is the fate of dozens Catalan officials, particularly former President Puigdemont, who have been charged with criminal offenses, including misuse of public funds, for actions related to the independence referendum.

In addition, the leaders of the two biggest pro-independence civil groups are being held in custody without bail, pending an investigation on charges of sedition. If Puigdemont or other former senior Catalan officials were to be detained too, the stakes would rise and civil unrest could follow. On top of that, the public prosecutor has speculated about adding to the charges against Puigdemont by investigating him for rebellion, a crime that can be punished with up to 30 years in jail.