5 takeaways from Spain

5 takeaways from a manic Sunday in Catalonia

The stage is set for a unilateral declaration of independence — and, just possibly, talks to find a compromise.

By DIEGO TORRES

Spain stepped into the unknown Sunday after Catalan separatists, inflamed by some heavy-handed Spanish policing, vowed to push ahead with independence on the back of a chaotic but determined referendum.

Despite Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy‘s assurances that the country remains strong and united, and his refusal to acknowledge that any vote on self-determination had taken place, Spain’s constitutional order is under threat.

Catalan regional President Carles Puigdemont declared on Sunday night that his followers had “earned the right to be an independent state,” setting the stage for a unilateral declaration of independence that will challenge Spanish democracy and test the solidarity of EU capitals, which have so far supported Madrid.

Here are five conclusions from Sunday’s vote:

1. Rajoy’s bad day

The Spanish prime minister gave Catalan separatists the political ammunition they were hoping for: Images of Spanish police in riot gear on Sunday charging against crowds of unarmed civilians who had got up early to cast a vote.

What’s more, the police action didn’t manage to prevent people — millions, according to the Catalan regional government — from going out to vote. That means Rajoy may pay the political cost of repression without having honored his promise to prevent the referendum.

The Spanish state did manage to undermine the logistics of the vote and thereby the credibility of the result, raising the question: Why was it also necessary to send in the riot police, if the separatists’ digital infrastructure had already been disabled?

Rajoy put thousands of civil guard and national police officers, many deployed in Catalonia from other parts of the country, in the embarrassing position of having to force their way through hundreds of people to confiscate ballot boxes. The national police were driven back in certain places while the Catalan regional police — the Mossos — refused to move against the voters.

2. Separatist PR victory

Catalan pro-independence forces managed to mobilize thousands of people to sleep in polling stations and defend the buildings to prevent police from taking away ballot papers and other voting material. They demonstrated good organization and strong commitment.

They also managed to attract international attention to the issue, with some prominent European politicians — the Belgian and Slovenian prime ministers, U.K. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and some members of the European Parliament — expressing concern about the violence in Catalonia and calling for constructive dialogue.

The crackdown by Spanish authorities in the weeks leading up to the vote is likely to have inflamed nationalist sentiment and widened the support base of the separatists, which came close to 50 percent in the last regional elections. That trend is likely to continue following Sunday’s events.

3. Iffy ballot won’t stop Catalan rush to declare victory

There was no electoral commission overseeing the referendum. Some polling stations were sealed. The Catalan government made last-minute changes in the organization of the vote. The central government took down the referendum’s digital infrastructure. Polling stations were packed with secession supporters who were in charge of counting the votes. There were unconfirmed reports of people voting more than once.

Despite procedural shortcomings that would render any other democratic vote null and void, the Catalan government felt justified in saying it would present the results to the regional parliament this week.

Puigdemont didn’t bother to wait for an outcome to talk about an independent future. A bit after midnight, the regional government announced a landslide: Some 2.3 million people voted, or 42 percent of the electorate, and 90 percent said Yes to independence, it said.

A declaration of independence could, in turn, prompt Madrid to take control of the Catalan government, likely bringing more widespread unrest to the region.

4. Rajoy’s next steps

With a unilateral declaration now on the cards, it fell to Rajoy’s main Socialist rival, Pedro Sánchez, to acknowledge that Spain’s territorial unity “is today at stake” and to urge the prime minister to take action. Rajoy must “negotiate, negotiate and negotiate” for an agreement with the Catalans, Sánchez said.

Appearing on national TV on Sunday evening, Rajoy didn’t sound open to negotiation: Instead, he laid the blame for the day’s chaos on the “irresponsibility” of the regional government led by Puigdemont.

However, Rajoy also promised to bring all of Spain’s political forces together in coming days to discuss the crisis and said he was open to dialogue within the framework of the law. “I am not going to close any doors,” he said.

The separatists know it would be almost impossible to get a majority of Spaniards to back the constitutional changes required to pave the way for Catalan self-determination. Just as Sunday’s violence is likely to inflame nationalists’ ardor in Catalonia, the vote itself could accentuate nationalist feelings in the rest of Spain.

In the current climate, you could still possibly find support in Spain to allow Catalonia a greater degree of autonomy short of a clean break. But the separatists now look unlikely to settle for anything less than self-determination — that is, a Scottish-style referendum, agreed with Madrid, that would allow a proper vote (unlike on Sunday) to settle the question of sovereignty for the region.

5. Stand by for more lobbying

In the weeks before the vote, both sides ratcheted up their international lobbying efforts to rally support for their points of view: Rajoy appeared alongside U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington last week and got his blessing for Spanish unity, while Puigdemont and his supporters traveled tirelessly to Brussels to seek the mediation and intervention of the European Union.

The Catalan leader said after Sunday’s events that Europe “can’t look the other way” now. Most EU leaders will likely remain cautious of upsetting Spain or being seen to undermine its constitution, and any who have ventured to speak about the Catalan question in public have limited their public remarks to encouraging dialogue.

The level of attention being paid to the separatist cause is worrying the Spanish government. Foreign leaders and media organizations are under intense pressure to takes sides.