Trump is underperforming...

GOP insiders: Trump can't win

'Trump is underperforming so comprehensively...it would take video evidence of a smiling Hillary drowning a litter of puppies while terrorists surrounded her with chants of ‘Death to America,’' said an Iowa Republican.

By Steven Shepard

Republican insiders are more convinced than Democrats that Donald Trump is so far behind Hillary Clinton that he can't win in November.

Roughly half of Republican members of The POLITICO Caucus — activists, strategists and operatives in 11 swing states — believe that Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes is basically shut off after another week in which the GOP nominee appears to have ceded ground in national and most battleground state polls.

Democrats, however, aren’t breaking out the champagne just yet. Seventy-two percent of Democratic insiders said despite Clinton’s clear advantage at this stage of the race, the presidential election isn’t effectively over.

Democrats cited the unpredictability of the 2016 campaign, along with some of Clinton’s own weaknesses, for their bridled optimism. It’s a message that fits neatly with what party leaders are saying publicly and behind closed doors: Don’t get too cocky, even with Clinton well ahead of Trump in the polls.

“A lot can happen in a short period of time. This is not over. Not by a long shot,” said one Ohio Democrat — who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously. “Considering everything Trump has said and done, Hillary should be up 15 points in every poll.”

“We are in a great place,” added a Florida Democrat, “but nothing is over 89 days out, particularly with Clinton's trust issues.”

Democrats pointed to a number of events that could alter the race: the three scheduled debates, beginning in late September, and also the possibility of further electronic breaches of Democratic National Committee communications or other party officials’ email accounts.

“It's only August. While Trump's chances are incredibly slim, it's not over yet,” a Colorado Democrat said. “Hillary's negatives are still high, and we have several more WikiLeaks data dumps coming up, and the potential for turbulence around the debates. It's possible the bar for Trump is so low that he can be declared the winner in the debates by simply not saying anything bats--t crazy.”

For the minority of Democrats — 28 percent — who said the race was effectively over, they pointed to Clinton’s seemingly impenetrable advantages with growing demographic groups, along with Trump’s foibles on the campaign trail.

“You can't win a presidential election in modern America without women and minorities,” a Nevada Democrat said. “Hillary will crush him by historic proportions with those two groups.”

“The long-awaited pivot to the general by Trump will never happen,” an Ohio Democrat added. “All the handlers in the world cannot change his behavior.”

GOP insiders were virtually split, however: 49 percent said the race was already effectively over, while 51 percent said that it wasn’t.

“While it's true that previous candidates have come back from greater deficits to win, it won't happen in 2016. The electorate is far more base-driven, with fewer persuadables,” said an Iowa Republican. “Trump is underperforming so comprehensively across states and demographics it would take video evidence of a smiling Hillary drowning a litter of puppies while terrorists surrounded her with chants of ‘Death to America!’ But in 2016, stranger things have happened.”

“Trump has failed to demonstrate he has a plan and path to 270” electoral votes, added a Wisconsin Republican. “Considering the disadvantage a GOP candidate starts with, the work in key targeted states like Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania has to be error-free. There is no evidence that Trump has done that or that he has much of a ground game to begin with.”

But just as many Republicans said Trump still has a chance to reverse his fortunes — though many said time is running short.

“Outside events could still intervene, and I could certainly see something happening on foreign policy front that changes the face of the race, but as Yogi Berra once said, ‘It’s getting late early,’” a Michigan Republican said. “The problem is, that even when things go wrong with Hillary, Trump cannot stay out of his own way long enough just let her have a bad news cycle. He's got to show some form of proof of life, and soon.”

Added an Iowa Republican: “Trump Time is running through the bottle of the hour glass. Not quite yet, but getting close. If he doesn't move in 15 days, it's effectively over.”

One Pennsylvania Democrat cited an old political axiom, attributing it to former astronaut-turned-senator John Glenn (D-Ohio). “From Sen. Glenn, there are only two ways to run for office, one is unopposed and the other is scared,” the Democrat said. “No Democrat should feel that this is locked up, and overconfidence will hurt us in October.”

Republicans split on Trump’s debate negotiations.

GOP insiders rendered a split decision on Trump’s posture concerning the three commission-sponsored debates this fall.

Slightly fewer than half of Republican Caucus panelists, 47 percent, said Trump is right to suggest his participation could hinge on the dates, times, identities of the moderators and other details — while 53 percent said Trump is making a mistake by not committing to the debates without conditions.

One Florida Republican said the commission should take input from both major-party nominees, and there shouldn’t be a conflict with other highly-rated television programs, like live football games. “The more viewing the better for all,” the Republican said.

An Ohio Republican echoed that, saying the debates “should not be on at same time as major sporting events.” (The first debate on Sept. 26 is scheduled at the same time as a NFL game between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints, picked by Sports Illustrated as two of the five worst teams in their conference, airing on ESPN.)

A Michigan Republican said Trump should be skeptical of unfriendly media outlets, whose on-air talent could be picked by the commission to moderate the debates.

“Trump got away with a lot in the GOP debate that he could not get away with in a debate with Hillary,” the Republican said. “He needs to be sure that he is completely comfortable with the format before he agrees to participate. There has been a pro-Hillary, anti-Trump bias in the media, so if he feels that the moderators will treat him unfairly, it doesn't make sense for him to risk being on the stage. Skipping a GOP debate did nothing to stop his momentum.”

Iowa Republicans disagreed with that last part, however: Multiple GOP insiders cited Trump’s absence from the final debate before the caucuses as a reason for his defeat there. (Trump declined to participate, citing what he described as unfair treatment from Fox News Channel, which produced and aired that debate.)

“The old adage is you cannot win an election through debates, but you can lose them. Donald Trump, as with anything, is the exception to this rule,” said an Iowa Republican. “He has GOT to win the debates or he will lose. Forfeiture is not an option. Last time he skipped a debate, he lost the Iowa caucuses.”

Other Republicans agreed with the overwhelming majority of Democrats, 85 percent, who said threatening to hold out of the debates was a mistake. One Michigan Republican said Trump “looks petty and scared.” Two Florida insiders — one from each party — called the GOP nominee “chickens---t.”

Added an Iowa Republican: “Someone has failed to teach Trump the basics of candidate school. He doesn't understand that he's no longer negotiating with [RNC chair] Reince [Priebus] and a single cable network. This is an entirely different thing. And leaving an empty chair against Hillary would be a complete disaster. He would look weak and scared and like a loser, which he would never allow around his brand. It would literally put a wooden stake in the heart of his entire campaign.”