Pennsylvania

How Pennsylvania will be won

The fate of the state's 20 electoral votes will be decided on opposite ends of the Pennsylvania Turnpike.

By Katie Glueck

In the battle for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes, the east is pitted against the west.

Hillary Clinton is focused on turning out the Democratic base in Philadelphia — where Barack Obama won by a 492,000-vote margin in 2012 — and capturing more moderate Republicans in the surrounding suburbs.

In the west, Donald Trump has zeroed in southwestern Pennsylvania’s coal country and the blue-collar towns around Pittsburgh, banking on big turnout among culturally conservative, disillusioned Democrats.

While the state hasn’t voted for a Republican for president since 1988, it’s essential to Trump’s Rust Belt strategy. In a sign the Clinton campaign recognizes that, it added the state to its television ad campaign this month. And right out of the convention gate, Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, embarked on a bus tour that will take them across the state this weekend on the way to Ohio.

“Donald Trump will get some of the disaffected blue-collar white Democrats, no question,” acknowledged former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a Clinton ally.

But, he continued, “In the end, Trump loses that battle. He gains some blue-collar white Democrats, he loses some suburban Republicans — not just women, but men as well — he loses lots of independents in the suburbs. That’s the death knell.”

Indeed, Republicans in the suburbs ringing Philadelphia concede that Trump’s struggles with wealthier, more educated Republicans in that area — who were solid Mitt Romney and John McCain voters — increase the pressure to flip Democrats to the Republican side this time, a risky bet in an era in which traditional base turnout is critical in most races.

But they insist that Trump’s appeal to blue-collar Democrats around Philadelphia, in small northeastern cities like Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, and in western Pennsylvania, will help him compensate for any erosion from the traditional GOP base.

“The question becomes, do you make up enough votes through middle-class Democratic voters to offset losses you might receive in more affluent areas?” asked Val DiGiorgio, the GOP chair of Chester County — the only blue-collar county around Philadelphia to narrowly back Romney in 2012 — adding that he’s hopeful Trump will.

“I’m hearing from some folks they won’t vote for Hillary but they won’t vote in the presidential,” he continued. “For every one of those voters, I hear several voters who aren’t traditional Republican voters telling us they’re going to vote for Trump.”

Recent polls out of Pennsylvania have been inconsistent, with some showing Clinton up by solid margins, and another showing Trump edging her out. At present, Clinton holds a nearly 8-point lead there, according to POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average.

Trump’s challenge with more moderate Republican voters in the populous suburbs ringing Philadelphia — an area with far fewer minorities than the vote-rich city itself — is evident, just as Clinton’s struggles with working-class, one-time Democrats in the southwestern corner of the state is clear-cut.

Rep. Ryan Costello, a Republican who represents parts of several Philly-area counties, had been elected as a delegate to the Republican National Convention. But he pulled out to “use this time to work for his constituents in the district” and spend “time with his family.”

Rep. Charlie Dent, another moderate Republican from the Lehigh Valley, north of Philadelphia, also skipped the event, as did Sen. Pat Toomey, a Republican up for reelection this year from Lehigh County an hour outside of Philadelphia.

“The business community at this point, the plurality is for Trump, but a group of folks have kept the door open,” said one prominent Republican business leader from a close-in Philadelphia suburb, speaking before the Republican National Convention. “Some have said, ‘no, never,’ some have said, ‘wait and see.’ The plurality is for him. He needs a solid majority, for that number to get to north of 90 [percent].”

The source went on to add, in a follow-up interview, that more Republicans were convinced after the RNC — but Trump wasn't where he needed to be yet.

The Clinton campaign believes that her path runs through Philadelphia, by far the biggest city in the state, and where she is expected to run well with Latino and African-American voters. “I think she’ll win the city overwhelmingly and win with enough of a majority to overcome other parts of the state,” said Rep. Bob Brady, who doubles as the Philadelphia Democratic Party chair.

Democrats expect Trump will underperform Romney — who lost the state by 5 points in 2012 — so there’s no room for Trump to underperform.

But there’s one big difference between Romney, a wealthy private-equity executive, and Trump: Romney did not have the same appeal to white working-class voters that Trump, with his protectionist rhetoric and anti-Wall Street posture, can now claim.

It’s particularly apparent in northeastern Pennsylvania — home to traditionally Democratic and blue-collar Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. Trump posted big wins in Scranton’s Lackawanna County and in Wilkes-Barre’s Luzerne County in the GOP primary; two area Republican congressmen, Reps. Lou Barletta and Tom Marino, are vocal supporters of the real estate mogul.

According to a recent poll from Axiom Strategies (the firm of Ted Cruz's former campaign manager), in Luzerne County — where Obama won 52 percent to 47 percent over Romney — Trump led Clinton by 23 points.

Trump campaigned in the area Wednesday, and Clinton, whose father was born in Scranton, is expected to stump with Scranton native Joe Biden next month.

On the other side of the state, Clinton will try to run up big numbers in Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County, while Trump will aim to turn out supporters outside the city.

“Donald Trump has to do especially well in the southwest corner of the state — Washington [County], Greene, Fayette, Beaver, Butler, Westmoreland,” said longtime state GOP strategist Charlie Gerow. “The ring around Allegheny he believes is ripe for the plucking because, one, coal, two, natural gas, three, guns. These traditional Democratic counties voted Republican in recent elections but are apparently pro-Trump in significant numbers.”

Republican Rep. Keith Rothfus, who represents several counties surrounding Pittsburgh, said Clinton has serious problems in the region.

Democrats have a voter registration advantage in his district, he said. But Trump’s message is a natural fit for this part of the state, where the coal industry provides jobs and many voters are gripped by economic anxieties — many still bristle at Clinton’s remark that she’s going to put coal miners and coal companies “out of business” (she later apologized and noted that she only meant she wanted to create more sustainable jobs).

“I hear it from constituents, from traditional Democratic communities,” Rothfus said. “I hear it from Republicans, I hear it from independents. People want something different from what we have. I think Hillary Clinton represents the status quo, and the status quo has not been good.”

The Clinton campaign — which had a state director and regional and local staffers on the ground well before Trump did — continues to be better-organized on the ground than the Trump campaign. But the Trump ground game is beginning to show signs of life. After much local angst about the lack of visible Trump presence, the campaign named David Urban, a staffer for former Republican-turned-Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter, as a senior adviser for the state campaign.

County chairs on the ground, including those who had previously complained about lack of communication from the Trump campaign, say there’s more outreach now, though much of Trump’s effort is still run through the state party.

“We are seeing a lot more activity mostly coordinated through the state GOP,” said Michael Korns, chairman of the Westmoreland County GOP, a southwestern Pennsylvania county that looks favorable to Trump.

Korns had complained last month that “the resources at our disposal are by far the worst I’ve ever seen,” but since then, he says, he’s noticed an uptick in the resources provided.

“I've spoken to the Trump campaign chairman and staff and been assured" that Pennsylvania is "a top priority for the campaign,” he said.

But even if Trump runs historically well among traditional working-class Democrats in the southwest and northeast, and among the more conservative voters in the middle of the state, he still faces the blue wall of Philadelphia and the skeptical suburbs.

“As a practical matter, southeastern Pennsylvania represents as much as 40 percent of the vote,” said a knowledgeable Pennsylvania Democrat. “It is conceivable Hillary Clinton will win those five counties by 500,000 votes, making it very difficult for anyone else to catch up. And it is the fastest-growing area. Republicans are more moderate, they will, I believe, vote in significant numbers for Hillary.”

But Clinton’s not ceding the southwest to Trump: The day after the convention, Clinton and running mate Tim Kaine launched a bus tour through Pennsylvania and Ohio, hitting Harrisburg and planning a stop in Pittsburgh before moving into eastern Ohio.

“We’re making sure that the people we can count on for our base are well-educated on the subject of Donald Trump, to make sure we aren’t losing people,” said Nancy Patton Mills, the Democratic chair of Allegheny County. “It’s very important right now," because in western Pennsylvania, "we do have some Democrats who are leftover Reagan Democrats, who may be a little more vulnerable.”