Win or get out

Democratic insiders to Bernie: Win California or get out

'If Bernie Sanders stays in the race after losing California, he will be remembered not as a successful champion of progressive ideals but instead as just another narcissistic politician,' said one insider.

By Steven Shepard

If Bernie Sanders fails to win the California primary next Tuesday, he should immediately end his long-shot campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, even before the voting concludes the following week in the District of Columbia.

That’s according to Democratic members of The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 10 key battleground states — nearly 80 percent of whom said that a loss in California, combined with Hillary Clinton’s virtually insurmountable delegate advantage, would represent the end of the road for Sanders. Only 21 percent said Sanders should take his campaign to the District’s June 14 primary.

“This race has been over for a long time. It's time for Bernie to prove that he is really a Democrat by getting out of the race and enthusiastically endorsing Hillary Clinton,” said a Florida Democrat, who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously. “The stakes are too high for Bernie to continue to pretend he has a chance.”

“If Bernie Sanders stays in the race after losing California, he will be remembered not as a successful champion of progressive ideals,” added a Colorado Democrat, “but instead as just another narcissistic politician.”

“If he doesn't end his campaign on Wednesday morning,” a New Hampshire Democrat added, “he becomes the most unpopular person in the Democratic Party.”

A number of insiders indicated that, given the likely delegate math, Sanders should concede the nomination to Clinton — win or lose in California. Counting publicly declared superdelegates, Clinton is 70 delegates shy of clinching the nomination — a figure she will almost certainly achieve early next Tuesday night, even before polls close in California.

“He should suspend his campaign even if he wins California, because by the time polls close in New Jersey, Secretary Clinton will have clinched the nomination,” said a New Hampshire Democrat.

“Win or lose,” added another New Hampshire Democrat, “Sanders should suspend his campaign. Any pretense that he cares about the Democratic Party is fading away. … Grow up already. You lost. Act like the hero you want people to think you are and get on board with the winner.”

But among the minority of Democratic insiders who disagreed, there was a sense that while Sanders doesn’t have to end his campaign immediately, he should begin the process of delivering his supporters to Clinton.

“He should go to the last primary, and then let his supporters know that they gave it a good shot and it's time to get behind Hillary,” said a Wisconsin Democrat.

“I am far less concerned with when he ends his campaign than how he ends it,” added a Colorado Democrat. “After [California and New Jersey], the reality will be apparent, and moving forward, he has earned the right to stay in this race, but he's got to do it in a way that doesn't put the general election at risk.”

While Sanders’ supporters are underrepresented on the Caucus panel, some of those who responded to the survey are rooting from him, as one Nevada Democrat put it, “Take it all the way to the convention in Philly!”

Added a New Hampshire Democrat: “He has earned the right to go all the way to the convention and fight for the agenda that inspired those of us who supported him.”

Said another: “Sanders has every right to make a play for the superdelegates,” calling it “a system widely reviled at the moment among the rank and file.”

Republicans, meanwhile, are cheering from the sidelines. Said one Iowa GOP insider: “I'm feeling the Bern all the way! The longer this bitter, nasty, divisive campaign continues, the longer it will take [for Democrats] to unify.”

Donald Trump and his surrogates have been touting their standing in some polls among Hispanic voters, but insiders in both parties are pouring cold water on Trump’s claims that he will outperform the GOP’s last nominee among Latinos.

Mitt Romney won 27 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2012, according to exit polls. Nearly half of GOP insiders, 48 percent, said they think Trump will win a smaller percentage this fall, compared to 27 percent who think he will win a larger percentage, and 25 percent who said he would win about the same percentage.

“Romney had better Hispanic field and outreach to Hispanic community and will gain a larger percentage of the vote than Trump,” said a Republican in Florida, where Romney won 34 percent of the non-Cuban Hispanic vote, according to exit polls.

“He is delusional. And, most distressing, many formerly rational party leaders appear to be buying into his delusion,” added a New Hampshire Republican.

Among those GOP insiders who said Trump would underperform Romney’s 2012 campaign, their comments were more quips than expanded analysis.

“Is zero a smaller percentage?” teased an Ohio Republican.

“How do you say ‘not a chance in hell’ in Español?” asked a Florida Republican.

“Slim and none,” joked another Ohio Republican, “and slim has left the room.”

“Smaller,” said a Virginia Republican, “because, you know: reality.”

A Pennsylvania Republican said the “real question” is whether Trump can outperform Bob Dole's 21 percent showing in 1996, the historical low-water mark for Republican candidates.

“Seriously. Donald. Put down the Taco Bowl,” said an Iowa Republican, referring to a much-criticized recent Trump tweet. “Santa Anna wasn't nice at the Alamo, and there's no reason you'll be spared in this battle, either.”

The Republicans who said Trump would run stronger with Hispanics said the political media were mistaking all Latinos for those who are eligible and reliable voters.

“Pundits continue to confuse Hispanic voters with illegal immigrants,” said a Republican in Nevada, where Romney won only a quarter of the Hispanic vote, according to exit polling. “Illegal immigrants don't care for Trump's message, but they don't vote. Hispanic citizens, who were either born here or followed the rules and came to this country the right way, actually support the rule of law.”

“The Acela media make too much of the ‘Hispanic vote’ as a monolithic bloc,” added an Ohio Republican. “It's not.”

Democrats were confident on this question: More than 90 percent said Trump would win a smaller share of Latino voters than Romney. And many said, not only would Trump lose Hispanics overwhelmingly, his inflammatory statements would encourage more of them to register and turn out.

Trump “could speak in fluent Spanish for the rest of campaign and he will still lose a record number of Hispanics,” said a Democrat in Colorado, where Romney won just 23 percent of the Hispanic vote four years ago.

Ultimately, one Colorado Republican said, Trump’s struggles may not be confined only to voters of a specific race or ethnicity.

“I think he will win a smaller percentage of all voters, not just Hispanics,” the Republican said.