Strongest VP pick

GOP insiders: Kaine is strongest VP pick for Clinton

The Virginia senator is also top choice among Democrats.

By Steven Shepard

There’s good reason Tim Kaine is riding high atop Hillary Clinton’s vice-presidential short list: When Republican battleground state insiders were asked to choose the strongest running mate for Clinton, Kaine ranked first.

That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 10 key swing states. Out of a list of seven possible picks as Clinton’s running mate, Kaine was the first choice of just over a third of GOP insiders.

The Virginia senator also rates high among Democratic insiders, with 29 percent saying this week they want Clinton to choose Kaine — twice as many as picked fellow Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the second-place vote-getter.

Democratic insiders touted Kaine’s breadth of experience. Before being elected to the Senate in 2012, Kaine served as governor and mayor of Richmond, the commonwealth’s capital. He also has significant political experience: He was President Barack Obama’s pick to chair the Democratic National Committee. Additionally, insiders said Kaine’s fluency in Spanish — which dates back to his time teaching at a Catholic school in Honduras — could help the Clinton campaign appeal to Latino voters.

“Tim Kaine would be an extraordinary vice president,” said a New Hampshire Democrat, who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously. “A genuinely nice guy, he would bring much to the ticket and the administration. He is fluent in Spanish, trained in the law, he has served as a city mayor, governor and senator. America could not do better than having Kaine as our vice president.”

“He understands how the party operates, knows players nationally, is well respected, and ready to do the job of president if needed,” added a Wisconsin Democrat.

Warren was the second choice among Democratic insiders: 15 percent said Clinton should pick the first-term Massachusetts senator, who has emerged as a champion of progressive economic policy.

Warren, insiders said, would help to bring the energy of Bernie Sanders’ supporters into the fold for the general election.

“Picking Elizabeth Warren would be an adrenaline shot in the arm of an otherwise tepid campaign,” said one Colorado Democrat.

Added an Ohio Democrat: “I think she needs to have someone on the ticket who is more progressive, to entice young people and progressives (i.e. Berniecrats).”

Sanders himself earned little support as a Clinton running mate: Only 2 percent of Democratic insiders said they wanted Clinton to pick Sanders, who has yet to officially concede the nomination.

The third-place finisher among Democratic insiders was Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro (13 percent), the Texan who became a rising star as mayor of San Antonio after speaking at the national party convention four years ago.

Since then, Castro has worked to build a national profile, including accepting a job in Obama’s cabinet.

“Julian Castro spoke at our state Democratic convention a few years ago,” said a Wisconsin Democrat, “and he was an excellent speaker with a great story, and he has that young, fresh, exciting vibe that Barack Obama showed us back in 2008.”

For some Democrats who picked Castro, their reasons were primarily demographic.

“Clinton will need the strong support of the Black and Brown communities to get elected, the same coalition that gave us Barack Obama,” said a Florida Democrat. “Mr. Castro is young, gifted and Brown.”

Kaine, Warren and Castro are reported to be Clinton’s top choices, though others still remain in the mix, with a month to go before the start of the national party convention in Philadelphia.

Sens. Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and Cory Booker (N.J.), are also rumored to be in contention, though both would have to be replaced in the Senate by their respective states’ Republican governors.

“Ideally, I'd like to see Sherrod Brown join Hillary as her VP pick because he would help shore up Bernie supporters, he has strong union ties, balances the trade issue and would be a good liaison with the House and Senate,” said an Ohio Democrat.

“Realistically, however, it's unlikely that Hillary would jeopardize the Senate by giving up a safe seat,” added the Democrat.

Democrats' next choice isn’t on Clinton’s short list: sitting Vice President Joe Biden (7 percent).

“There is no better way to unite the party and reignite some of the Obama magic than asking the VP to stay on board,” said a Florida Democrat. “[Clinton] won't do it, but she should.”

“Come on, how can you not love Uncle Joe?” asked a Colorado Democrat, rhetorically. “Arguably the strongest VP of the modern era, and he would slice [Donald] Trump to pieces on the campaign trail.”

Also earning nominal support among Democratic insiders were Labor Secretary Tom Perez (4 percent), Minnesota Sen. Al Franken (2 percent), Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (2 percent) and California Rep. Xavier Becerra (2 percent).

Given the choice of Kaine and six others, 34 percent of Republicans and nonpartisans in the swing states said the Virginia senator would be the strongest option for Clinton -- including most GOP insiders in Kaine’s home state.

Kaine “sends a signal to moderates, independents and even some disappointed Republicans that the water is fine, come on in,” said a Virginia Republican. “He isn't necessary to carry Virginia, but he could be a very powerful validator.”

“Why go risky?” asked a North Carolina Republican. “Let the GOP corner the market on risky. Kaine is a safe, thoroughly vetted choice. As someone who worked a campaign against Kaine and lost, I would also note that Kaine's dirty little secret is that behind that ‘safe’ veneer, he's actually a really good retail politician.”

Insiders split on some of Clinton’s alternatives, with Booker (14 percent), Brown (13 percent), Castro (13 percent) viewed by the other side as equally strong.

“Booker would excite African Americans. Trump already excites Latinos,” said a Florida Republican.

“Trump organizes minorities for Hillary,” echoed a New Hampshire Republican who chose Brown. “Go for Ohio, where Trump has nothing going (no visits, no staff, and the antipathy of the Kasich folks) and close off the Electoral College.”

Just 8 percent of Republicans and nonpartisans said Warren, who has emerged as perhaps Trump’s most vocal Democratic critic, would be Clinton’s best bet.

Warren gives Clinton “progressive credibility and allows her to double down on the war on women rhetoric,” said an Ohio Republican.