So long and thanks for all the fish...

Sorry and good riddance: How Europe will greet Brexit

Brussels insists there’s no Plan B — but officials have got a script for the biggest setback in the history of the EU.

By  Florian Eder

“We respect the decision and we regret it.” That’s how Brussels will respond on Friday if Britain votes to leave the EU.

In a simple, two-line statement designed to avoid a “cacophony” of reactions, that will be the European institutions’ first response to a Brexit vote, according to one EU official. Reading between the lines, it means the EU wants an orderly process of separation to begin quickly, in order to avoid ambiguities that could rattle financial markets.

Although the official line for months in Brussels has been “there is no plan B,” it was clear from POLITICO’S conversations with two dozen EU politicians, officials, aides and regulators that they’ve long been preparing for what could be the biggest setback in the history of the European Union.

In Brussels and across Europe, meetings and phone calls have been penciled into leaders’ diaries for the Friday, Saturday and Sunday after the U.K. vote, and the following week.

The heads of the main EU institutions are set to meet at 10:30 a.m. on Friday in the Commission’s Berlaymont headquarters, whatever the result of the referendum. European Council President Donald Tusk, Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker and Parliament President Martin Schulz will join Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, whose country holds the Council’s rotating presidency.

While Brussels has been keen to avoid giving the impression that it is already planning for life without the U.K., it has also tried to avoid looking unprepared, especially with U.K. opinion polls too close to call in recent weeks.

“I can assure you we will be ready and also very precise,” Tusk said last week.

The leadership’s hope is to set the tone for the day’s responses, making it clear that while they regret the first ever departure of a member nation, their “respect” for the decision also means that — in the words of German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble — “in is in, and out is out.”

This notion of irreversibility, used by U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron and his Remain campaign, has been repeated by top EU officials, with Schulz saying in an interview “who leaves, leaves,” and the head of the European Parliament’s largest bloc, Manfred Weber of the European People’s Party, saying: “If it comes to Brexit, one thing is clear: Leave means leave.”

Others plan to steal their thunder, however. Guy Verhofstadt, the former Belgian prime minister who chairs the liberal ALDE group in the Parliament, has invited reporters to meet him Friday at 9.30 a.m. — an hour before the presidents meet, and after his own meeting, scheduled for very early Friday, of all the political groups in the Parliament.

Verhofstadt told POLITICO that his message will be: “Whatever happens, it is clear that we have to reform the EU.” And reform should be swift: “We should use this momentum to fundamentally change the EU and start a discussion about the future of the EU.” He even has a date in mind, proposing to launch a reform project with a new Convention on March 25 next year — on the 60th anniversary of the founding Treaty of Rome.

Long, hard look

There is less consensus at the top level of the EU about what form such reforms should take.

Tusk is taking a skeptical view of the classic European mantra of “ever closer union” — meaning deeper, faster integration of the remaining member countries — as the only way forward. Speaking this week in Portugal, he urged Britain to vote for continued membership but added: “We must take a long, hard look at the future of the Union.”

“We would be foolish to ignore such a warning signal as the U.K. referendum, and there are more signals of dissatisfaction coming from all over Europe,” said the Polish politician.

Even Juncker, who has been portrayed by Britain’s Leave campaigners as a diehard federalist who wants to create a “European superstate,” cautioned earlier this month against reacting with Aktionismus — a German term for empty gestures meant to give the impression of activity. A push for deeper integration, which would require treaty changes, “does not reflect the inclination of member states,” said the former prime minister of Luxembourg.

The middle path may well be mapped out by Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s François Hollande. The chancellor and the president’s staff have prepared a joint declaration, according to sources involved. The Germans would also like to enlist Polish Prime Minister Beata Szydlo, whose cabinet was in Berlin on Wednesday for intergovernmental consultations.

Other member countries will also mobilise right after the results —  “Irrespective of the result, Friday morning, most capitals will have cabinet meetings, where the result will be discussed,” said Joseph Muscat, prime minister of Malta — but they won’t stray far from the Franco-German statement, which is likely to reaffirm that the rest of the EU will stick together: Brexit means one member leaving, not the club falling apart.

EU leaders will also focus on protecting the euro from post-Brexit turbulence. “If Brexit happens, it would be a difficulty for the eurozone. We would rather do without it,” said French Finance Minister Michel Sapin. “But every difficulty can be overcome, and you can overcome it quickly. The eurozone is solid and capable to react.”

What will this club look like in future? “That’s not for Friday to say,” said one official. It could be raised as early as Saturday, when foreign ministers from the EU’s six founding members hold their third meeting of the year in Berlin. But Germany’s European commissioner, Günther Oettinger, told POLITICO he wouldn’t expect the EU to get to work on developing “new dynamics” before national elections in France and Germany next year.

If Britons do vote to leave, David Cameron will feel a chill in the air as soon as next Tuesday, however, when EU leaders gather in Brussels for a summit which could well see the Tory prime minister excluded from top-table discussions. His country will be a competitor with the EU, said the EPP’s Weber, and should no longer expect special treatment.

“Our criteria will be the interests of the rest of the European Union — 450 million people. So, frankly, we’ll be looking after the interests of Frankfurt, Paris and other financial capitals rather than the City of London,” said the German MEP.