Veep list...

Kaine rises to top of Clinton's veep list

The selection process is colored by new uncertainty among Democrats about whether Trump will be the GOP nominee.

By Annie Karni and Gabriel Debenedetti

Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine is emerging as the leading candidate atop Hillary Clinton’s vice presidential short list, according to Democratic allies and operatives close to the campaign.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren and HUD Secretary Julian Castro are also top prospects for the Democratic ticket — both representing nods to important Democratic constituencies.

But they have serious drawbacks that make them less appealing for Clinton than the Spanish-speaking, Terry McAuliffe-endorsed, former missionary and swing state governor, who was a finalist in Barack Obama’s vice presidential vetting process eight years ago.

Kaine currently towers over other top-tier candidates still in consideration like New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, Labor Secretary Tom Perez, California Rep. Xavier Becerra and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown.

“Tim Kaine was a finalist eight years ago because of his executive experience, solidity, values, standing in a critical state and overall profile as someone who would be a good governing partner to Obama,” said former Obama senior strategist David Axelrod, who was involved in the selection process eight years ago. “He was very much in contention and highly regarded.”

The selection process, however, is colored by new uncertainty among Democratic donors and Clinton allies who are no longer convinced that Donald Trump is sure to be the GOP nominee. A big advantage of holding their convention second, Democrats said, was being able to make a final pick with full knowledge of the GOP ticket.

At a fundraiser in Manhattan earlier this week, Clinton was peppered with questions from her top donors about whether there is any chance that the Republicans could nominate someone else — she said she thought the chances of that outcome were low.

Clinton also joked that she is still open to expanding her vice presidential search beyond the list of elected officials that so far has emerged. “If anyone has any ideas, let me know,” she told the crowd. “If anyone wants to put their name in the ring, let me know.”

Clinton allies said that the campaign has been keen on Kaine for months. But like Obama, who also focused on Joe Biden from the beginning but went through the due diligence of looking closely at different models, Clinton is still vetting a host of candidates.

Castro, 41, makes for a striking tableau standing next to Clinton: a rising Latino star of the Democratic Party, paired with the older, experienced, first female major party nominee, gives the sense of a big tent party. Castro has been working hard for Clinton on the trail, traveling to 11 states as a surrogate, but Democrats close to the campaign said there is concern his inexperience would cramp Clinton’s ability to frame Trump as someone lacking the appropriate resume for the Oval Office.

The progressive revolt against Castro over his handling of mortgage sales — no small concern for a party struggling to win over voters with deep reservations about Clinton’s brand of center-left pragmatism and her ties to Wall Street — has also raised some red flags.

Warren, 67, the fantasy number two pick for many progressive-leaning Democrats, offers the promise of a historic two-woman ticket, and would help soothe the hurt feelings of millions of Bernie Sanders supporters who find great appeal in the message of an economic system that is rigged for those at the top.

But the Massachusetts senator is seen as a potentially difficult bedfellow for the next eight years, and there is a lack of any personal relationship between the two leaders to draw on. There’s also a sense in Clinton circles that in a race against Trump, Clinton doesn’t need to make what would be a buzzy but risky bet with a number two who has her own clear agenda to push — one that has not always been in line with Clinton’s. Warren insiders have expressed distrust of Clinton on her core issue of Wall Street reform.

Nevertheless, Warren appears to be pursuing the job in recent weeks, serving as the lead attack dog against Trump. Last week, she visited Clinton’s Brooklyn headquarters to rally the troops with a typically blunt Warren message, “Don’t screw this up!”

On Monday she will appear for her first joint rally with Clinton in Ohio. Warren has met with James Hamilton, the veteran attorney overseeing the campaign’s vetting process, the New York Times reported Tuesday.

Still, campaign allies view Warren as a long shot. “At the end of the day, Warren would be the same thing as Bernie Sanders,” said one Clinton fundraiser. “She doesn't need Warren. She wants a relationship with whoever her vice president is.”

One dark horse that Clinton allies said is also on the list is Minnesota Sen. Al Franken, a close ally who is also popular with the progressive wing of the party and enjoys a closer bond with Clinton.

But Kaine, 58, is still viewed as the safest and most attractive option. Unlike Warren, who sat out the primary and endorsed after President Obama did, Kaine came around to Clinton two years ago, joining the “Ready for Hillary” group in 2014 at the South Carolina Democratic Party women’s breakfast. He was an active member of the group, sending surrogate emails and fundraising, according to a former operative. Over the past year, he has traveled to seven states as a Clinton surrogate and is often on campaign calls with reporters.

In February, for example, during one of the low points of Clinton’s campaign, Kaine, who sits on both the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees, spoke about the “commander-in-chief gap” between Sanders and Clinton on a conference call with the press.

With a five to eight point lead in the most recent national polls, and a huge advantage in cash over Trump, Clinton does not need to take a big risk, said half a dozen Democrats close to her campaign.

“She is in a strong position and doesn’t need to throw the long ball,” said Democratic consultant Michael Feldman, a former top aide to Al Gore. “More important, she is experienced and has been around the process long enough to know the essential criteria. Do no harm, because the downside of a mistake is greater than the upside of a great choice. Make sure it is someone who you are ready to work down the hall from for the next four to eight years.”

Kaine's office has helpful ties to Clinton, too. His chief of staff, Mike Henry, was a deputy campaign manager for Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign and went on to run Terry McAuliffe's campaign for Virginia governor later that year. The idea of McAuliffe, Clinton’s most trusted ally, filling his vacant seat is also appealing.

The Clinton team is not currently vetting Sanders, and has not reached out to ask for any input as it conducts its the vice presidential search. But Sanders has thrown in his own two cents, noting in an appearance on Meet The Press that the vice president needs to be a true progressive and raising the question of whether he might object to Clinton's choice. The running mate pick needs to "address the needs of the middle class, and that means standing up to Wall Street, standing up to the greed of corporate America," he said.

For now, the group overseeing the process includes Clinton’s innermost circle: Huma Abedin, campaign chairman John Podesta, senior policy adviser Jake Sullivan and Cheryl Mills, her former chief of state at the State Department who has no formal campaign role.

A source with knowledge of the process said they have finished the first wave of vetting a long list of potential picks, which involves collecting publicly available information about all the candidates. The campaign is now asking a shorter list to fill out lengthy questionnaires. A Clinton campaign spokesman declined to comment on the entire process.

Bill Clinton is also expected to have a major say in any final decision, and notably spent quality time in California with Perez, who is seen as having appeal to both the party's liberal wing and Hispanic constituencies.

The one knock against Kaine is that he would not energize minority turnout. “If there's any worry I have, it is that black and brown and young people folks don't come out in the higher number that we need them to come out in order for her to securely win,” said South Carolina state party chairman Jaime Harrison, referring to the party’s November calculus. “That is the thing that worries me the most. It's always about whether or not your base is motivated to come out.”

In the end, however, Clinton is looking for someone who will burnish her own profile on the road to November.

“Do you want someone you're comfortable with, or is there a political objective you have to accomplish,” said longtime Clinton ally James Carville, who was involved with Bill Clinton’s choice of Al Gore in 1992.

He said the magic of the Gore pick — which was a move to double down on young, white Southern reformers rather than to broaden the base — was that it amplified Bill Clinton’s virtues. The magic formula, Carville said, ultimately comes down to chemistry: “You're looking for 2 + 2 equals 4.1.”