6 takeaways

6 takeaways on Britain’s shock vote

David Cameron and George Osborne will pay for defeat, Labour faces turmoil — and UKIP’s Nigel Farage is triumphant.

By  Tom McTague

British democracy is brutal.

Barely seven hours after polls closed Thursday night, the result was declared: Britain had voted to leave the European Union.

Warnings of economic catastrophe were ignored. Voters just didn’t believe them, or thought it was a price worth paying. Anger with the government’s failure to control immigration was key, MPs said.

A year after leading the Conservative Party to its “sweetest victory” in the general election, David Cameron announced his resignation.

He will forever be remembered as the prime minister who lost Europe. Boris Johnson, the former London mayor who broke with Cameron to back Brexit, has his “Independence Day.”

But Cameron may also be the man who lost Scotland — and possibly even Northern Ireland.

By 5 a.m. in the U.K., it became clear that every area of Scotland had backed Remain. Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, was ominously quick out the blocks. “The vote makes clear the people of Scotland see their future as part of the European Union,” she said in a statement released before Cameron had emerged from his bunker in Number 10.

Northern Ireland had also backed Remain and Sinn Fein were calling for Irish reunification.

By 5.30 a.m, it was beginning to sink in. The pound was tanking, Nigel Farage was jubilant, Labour in meltdown. But Cameron was nowhere to be seen.

Conservative MP Andrea Leadsom, one of the stars of the Brexit campaign, admitted it was “perfectly likely there would be some volatility” on the markets but insisted the fundamentals of the U.K. economy were sound.

“If we keep calm, take measured decisions, we will fine,” she said. It’s not impossible she could soon be making the decisions as prime minister. Her two Brexit allies, Johnson and U.K. Justice Secretary Michael Gove, were keeping quiet.

Cameron finally appeared at just after 8.15 a.m. and announced his departure by October at the latest.

Here are six early takeaways from a seismic night:

1) England speaks

Northern Ireland had its Troubles. Scotland had its referendum. Now England has had its revolution.

“Little England” goes the cry. But England isn’t little within the United Kingdom — it’s all powerful.

Outside London, ordinary English towns overwhelming rejected Brussels and its rules and regulations, red tape and free movement. Liberal, metropolitan London, in so many ways a different country, had been overwhelmed by the sheer Euroskeptic zeal of ordinary, working-class England.

What does it matter to Great Yarmouth or Grimsby if  “the City” gets hit? Why should they care about rich bankers and lawyers in the capital?

In Sunderland, one of the first cities to declare, voters had put two fingers up to Brussels, despite the area’s largest employer, Nissan, calling for a Remain vote.

England is stereotypically conservative and eccentric. On Thursday it was revolutionary, a distinctly European trait.

2) Disunited Kingdom

If England was conclusive, so too was Scotland. Almost 600,000 more Scots voted to Remain than Leave. In Edinburgh, the capital, 74 percent backed European Union membership.

Less than two years ago, Cameron had seen off independence, warning that an independent Scotland would not be allowed into the European Union. Now they are being dragged out by their English cousins across the border.

The Scottish National Party was furious. Sturgeon hinted before the result had been confirmed that another vote on independence was inevitable.

Over in Northern Ireland there were even bigger concerns that the peace process could be in jeopardy. The six counties had voted 56 percent to 44 percent to Remain, but they will now have a border with the Republic.

Gibraltar too will fast become a concern for Downing Street. More than 90 percent of the outpost had backed EU membership.

3) Immigration wins out

As the results started to become clear at about 3:30 a.m., Labour’s Jonathan Reynolds said wearily: “I found the overwhelming strength of feeling on immigration just trumped all other issues.”

People had stopped listening. They had a way to cut immigration and they were going to take it.

Outside the big metropolitan areas, there was real anger over the government’s failure to control the numbers arriving from Europe every year.

David Cameron had twice promised to reduce the net inflow to below 100,000. It had been a “no ifs, no buts,” pledge in 2010 and a rather more limited ambition in 2015. But by May this year — six years into Cameron’s premiership — the number had hit 333,000 a year.

John Mann, one of the few Labour MPs to back Brexit, had called the result early. “I called for Leave after the first result,” he said. “The pollsters and pundits clearly have no systems of real voter intelligence.”

This, in a nutshell, was the problem. Voters kept telling politicians they wanted something done about immigration, but again and again nothing happened. UKIP surged in the polls, Labour lost touch with its base and support for the EU plummeted.

When Cameron won a Conservative majority last year, he had no choice but to honor his pledge to offer the people a referendum. From that point on, he had lost control.

4) Cameron finished

The prime minister pledged to stay on regardless of the result. No one believed him.

Tory MPs launched a pre-emptive bid to shore up the prime minister’s future Thursday night with a letter released at 10 p.m urging him to stay on in Number 10. Some 84 MPs signed it, including Gove and Johnson, but many more hadn’t.

Leadership speculation began immediately. Tory MP Sir Bill Cash suggested Cameron may not be able to stay on to oversee the Brexit talks. “Whoever is in Number 10 needs to be absolutely committed to Brexit,” he told the BBC.

Jacob Rees Mogg, the Euroskeptic Conservative backbencher, said there might need to be another general election to sort out the mess.

“I wouldn’t rule out a new election,” he said. “There will be a lot of policy areas that need to be discussed if we leave the European Union.”

Cameron had been unassailable a year ago. Now, he’s gone.

His chancellor of exchequer, George Osborne, must surely now be finished too.

5) Farage, victorious

Derided, mocked, regularly defeated, Nigel Farage is now triumphant. Whatever people’s view of him — and there are many — Britain would not now be leaving the European Union without him.

After conceding defeat at 10 p.m Thursday, Farage was first to declare victory at just after 5:05 a.m.

Britain had voted for independence from Brussels “without a shot being fired,” he said, sparking fresh controversy.

6) Labour in turmoil

“If we vote Out can we finally get rid of Jeremy?” one exasperated Labour MP said as Brexit surged in the polls before the referendum.

Throughout the campaign there had been outright fury with Corbyn. Polling showed 20 percent of Labour supporters did not know the party’s position.

Now it’s too late.

Labour now faces the very real possibility of fighting a fresh general election with the most left-wing leader it’s ever had. There is widespread panic that they could be wiped out across England, as they were in Scotland last year.