Nightmare

Cruz's nightmare number in Rhode Island

By Shane Goldmacher

If the polls are right, Donald Trump is almost certain to win Rhode Island on Tuesday, and by a comfortable margin. But the state’s unusual delegates rules make it very hard for Trump to claim all of the state’s 19 delegates — even if he wins in a landslide.

A total of 13 delegates are allocated proportionally based on the statewide vote, meaning that even a 50 percent-plus win would only net Trump seven delegates.

But there is a backdoor for Trump to win more. If Ted Cruz fails to reach 10 percent in the state, Trump would split the haul just with Kasich, and likely receive at least a couple more delegates. Cruz has hovered just above that 10 percent threshold in the most recent public polls.

Last week, Cruz won 14.5 percent of the vote in New York, and on March 1 he won only 9.6 percent in neighboring Massachusetts, though Marco Rubio and Ben Carson were still in the race then.

In addition to the statewide haul, the state’s two congressional districts are worth 3 delegates each. Unless Trump wins more than 67 percent of the vote, those will be split, one apiece to Trump, John Kasich and Cruz.

But again if Cruz falls short of 10 percent in either district, Trump would get an extra delegate.

Trump held a rally in Warwick, Rhode Island on Monday because, despite the relatively small stakes, his campaign knows every delegate counts in the march to 1,237.