Crush Trump

Insiders: Clinton would crush Trump in November

In the swing states that matter most, GOP insiders worry about a down-ballot disaster.

By Katie Glueck

In the swing states that matter most in the presidential race, Donald Trump doesn’t have a prayer against Hillary Clinton in the general election.

That’s according to top operatives, strategists and activists in 10 battleground states who participated in this week’s POLITICO Caucus. Nearly 90 percent of them said Clinton would defeat Trump in their home states in a November match-up.

Republicans are only slightly more bullish on Trump’s prospects than Democrats: More than three-quarters of GOP insiders expect Clinton to best the Republican front-runner in a general-election contest in their respective states. Among Democrats, the belief is nearly universal: 99 percent of surveyed said will Clinton will beat Trump.

In three of the biggest swing states—Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida—Republicans were particularly downbeat about the prospect of a Trump-Clinton contest.

“There is positively no way for Trump to win in Pennsylvania,” said a Republican from that state.

“Trump cannot and will not carry Ohio,” a Republican from that state insisted. “He will do well in Appalachia and in the Mahoning Valley but he will get killed in the rest of the state. The danger for the GOP is losing Rob Portman which is a very real possibility under this match-up.”

Added a Florida Republican, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely, “Trump is grinding the GOP to a stub. He couldn't find enough xenophobic, angry white Floridians to beat Hillary in Florida if he tried.”

“I not only think [Hillary] will win Florida in November if Trump is the nominee, I think she'll win 30+ states,” said another Florida Republican.

These comments follow two weeks of victories for Trump, who notched a major win in New York before going on to sweep the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday.

Looking ahead to the general election, Republican insiders fretted that if Trump is at the top of the ticket, he will not only lose in a landslide, but will also endanger Republicans on the rest of the ballot.

“NH is potentially a swing state but Hillary would win in a rout with profound down ballot consequences,” wrote one New Hampshire Republican.

Said a Virginia Republican, “Virginia has shifted to be more suburban than rural. While a Trump candidacy will gin up turnout in the Shenandoah Valley and Southwest, Trump will get killed in the suburbs of the urban crescent. Time to focus on Congressional races and 2017.”

Several Democrats said Trump would so motivate Democratic turnout that they envisioned clear-cut pick-up opportunities across the ballot.

“In a Trump/Clinton matchup, Hillary will win Florida by no less than 5 points and will help the Democrats pick up a Senate seat, a couple of House districts, and a significant number of state legislative seats,” said one Florida Democrat.

Added a North Carolina Democrat, “Hillary Clinton will put North Carolina back in the blue column. She will also have long coattails in North Carolina, helping Roy Cooper take back the Governor's Mansion and in quite possibly the biggest upset this cycle, help Deborah Ross defeat Senator Richard Burr.”

Plenty of Democrats predicted a landslide victory over Trump in November.

“This will be a near historic blow out, 20% at least,” a New Hampshire Democrat said.

“Trump will win some redneck cow counties, but Hillary will crush him in the urban areas of Las Vegas and Reno,” a Nevada Democrat predicted.

“Unless we throw up on ourselves, this is a no brainer,” a Wisconsin Democrat added.

But, some noted, Clinton faces her own challenges, from high unfavorable ratings to the question of whether Democrats currently supporting Bernie Sanders, her Democratic primary opponent, will turn out for her should she win the nomination, as she looks poised to do.

“I think it has become clear that his message resonates with voters on both sides,” said one Florida Republican who expects Trump to beat Clinton in that state if they both capture their parties’ nominations. “He is less of a politician, Hillary is clearly a politician, all you have to do is watch her nod her head and pick the right expression to use.”

People on both sides of the aisle also said that Trump has demonstrated some ability to appeal to white working-class voters who might not otherwise vote Republican.

“Could be close if Trump starts to act normal,” a Pennsylvania Democrat said.

But the vast majority of Democrats and Republicans alike expect the math to work out in Clinton’s favor.

“Trump's crossover appeal provides some challenges,” a Colorado Democrat said. “But for every working class white male Hillary loses she'll pick up three suburban Republican women; and neither group may reveal that to pollsters.”

Ted Cruz on Wednesday tapped Carly Fiorina to be his running mate, in a move that struck some POLITICO Caucus insiders as desperate and ineffective.

The majority of insiders surveyed in both parties said bringing on Fiorina makes no difference for Cruz in their respective states — 60 percent of Republicans and 73 percent of Democrats said the same.

“Being teased with a "major announcement" that turned out to be a candidate who is not going to win the nomination [choosing] Carly Fiorina as his running mate was like being promised a T-bone steak and being served a giant nothing burger,” an Iowa Republican said. “It smacks of desperation. It is never going to happen. I would have been embarrassed if I had been on the Cruz team and I was told I had to go out and sell that announcement.”

Added another Iowa Republican, “I'm a Carly supporter - but I don't see how this really moves the needle for Cruz. What is his argument? 'I know I can't win on the first ballot, but vote for me anyway because if it gets to a second ballot then Carly will be my running mate?' That doesn't work on a GOTV call... That's not a jab at Carly, it’s just a recognition that the narrative for Cruz is too daunting.”

Still, 27 percent of Republicans surveyed said the move might help Cruz as he struggles to regain momentum ahead of Indiana, which is shaping up to be a must-win contest for the Texas senator.

“She ran a strong NH campaign and as a woman brings a lot of appeal to the ticket,” a New Hampshire Republican said.