Trump nomination

Insiders: Trump nomination looking more likely

Eighty-one percent of Republican insiders say that the likelihood that Trump becomes their party’s nominee is higher today than it was a month ago.

By Katie Glueck

The odds that Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination are going up.

Eighty-one percent of Republican insiders say that the likelihood that Trump becomes their party’s nominee is higher today than it was a month ago, and 79 percent of Democrats said the same. That’s according to the POLITICO Caucus, our weekly bipartisan survey of the top strategists, operatives and activists in the early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

“I can't even describe the lunacy of him as our nominee. But reason has not applied to date in this race and my hopes are fleeting that it will ever surface,” lamented an Iowa Republican, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely.

“Predictions of his demise keep not coming true,” added a New Hampshire Republican.

Asserted a South Carolina Republican, “Donald Trump being the GOP nominee is now within the realm of possibility.”

Twenty-two percent of Caucus Republicans said Trump had a 50-50 shot at becoming the Republican nominee; the same percentage said he had only a 30 percent chance. The rest of the respondents were divided, with the majority saying his odds were still less than 50 percent. But more than eight in 10 GOP respondents said those were better odds than they gave Trump a month ago.

That is notable because it represents a big shift in the thinking of POLITICO Caucus insiders, who this summer were deeply skeptical of Trump’s staying power.

“Trump will be among 3-4 finalists well into April; of that there is no doubt,” an Iowa Republican said.

Added a New Hampshire Republican, who like all participants responded via an online survey: “Numbers are numbers and you have to give them credence -- I remain skeptical that he has the ability to turn people out come primary day, but I [have] been wrong about this campaign every step of the way so far.”

Several insiders pointed to both his persistent leads in polls and evidence of organization on the ground.

“I think he's now mounting a serious campaign,” a South Carolina Republican said. “His stump speech had matured and even though the novelty of his candidacy is wearing off, his straight talk is appealing to people who are so sick of being lied to by the political class.”

Agreed an Iowa Republican, “The more time that goes by that he continues to lead-- the more likely it is he wins. That simple. Also, comparatively, he is building a real campaign. More so than many others.”

“Not sure why anyone should be so surprised that Trump's campaign is getting so serious in terms of infrastructure build-out,” a New Hampshire Democrat said. “Trump may be a jerk but he is an extremely successful jerk. He has the means and the smarts to compete everywhere and he is not slowing down.”

That’s not the case in Nevada, noted several Republicans there, who said they see little evidence of a strong Trump ground game there.

But, one Republican from that state admonished: “He has demonstrated that he is durable in a way that Herman Cain, Michele [Bachmann] and Newt Gingrich were not… A lot can happen in the next few months but it is time for everyone to stop whistling past the graveyard and realize that this is real and he could be our standard bearer.”

However, several insiders also predicted that, while his odds have gone up, the rest of the Republican Party would coalesce against him if he appeared to be a serious contender for the nomination closer to when voting begins.

“Maybe, just maybe, Trump wins an early contest or two. That will trigger a much stronger Stop Trump movement,” a New Hampshire Republican said. “The party will nominate Bob Dole - in 2016! - before it will nominate Trump. And a Trump nomination will result in a third candidate emerging.”

Several insiders also said Trump couldn’t withstand waves of scrutiny stemming from attacks launched by super PACs and big donors that, they said, may be just around the corner.

“The summer of Trump has lasted longer than conventional wisdom suggested it would,” a South Carolina Republican said. “It's going to take a sustained, multi-pronged paid media effort to educate voters that Trump is not a conservative and has flip-flopped on practically every issue. Major donors are quickly getting to the place where they are ready to fund such an effort.”

All eyes on Jeb

The pressure is on for Jeb Bush in next week’s GOP debate, insiders said. Forty-seven percent of Republicans, and 41 percent of Democrats, said the former Florida governor is the candidate with the most riding on the contest, set for next Wednesday in Boulder, Colo.

“Jeb really needs a knock out performance -- it needs to be all him with nobody even close otherwise those fumes he's on are going to evaporate even quicker,” a New Hampshire Republican said.

An Iowa Republican said he doesn’t even need to go that far, but he does need to step up his performance.

“Riding at 6% in the polls has rattled Jeb's donors and volunteers,” this insider said. “He doesn't need a breakout performance, but he needs to be in the mix and in the top tier of the debate or risk getting shoved to the background and overshadowed by Rubio and others seeking to win over mainstream Republican voters.”

Marco Rubio was a distant second choice for which candidate was under the most pressure for a strong debate, pulling in 13 percent of the overall Republican vote and 24 percent of the Democratic vote.

“Rubio has been the one constant at 3rd place, and it's time he breaks out of that and starts cutting into Trump/Carson,” a South Carolina Democrat said. “It's no longer 'early' and it's not the final stretch, but this is the part of the horse race where jockeys know they have to start making their moves if they want to be in position to win.”