Doomed GOP Field

Which Candidates Are Doomed?

Based on tonight’s debate performances, more than a dozen political experts identify the presidential campaigns that need to be put out of their misery.

By  POLITICO Magazine

After tonight’s third Republican debate in Colorado, politico magazine asked the best and brightest minds on both sides of the political spectrum which candidates performed so poorly they ought to call it quits already.

Days after a disappointing performance in the second GOP debate, Gov. Scott Walker pulled the plug on his presidential campaign. Erstwhile presidential hopefuls Rick Perry, Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee have likewise faced the fact that they’ll never sit in the big chair in the oval office. At this point in the horserace, the debates are one of very few chances left for the candidates at the back to the GOP’s massive presidential pack to pull ahead. And many of those struggling presidential contenders failed to capitalize on that opportunity tonight.

According to a number of our political thinkers, several candidates blew it badly enough that they ought to stop delaying the inevitable and drop out. Our experts’ picks, and the rationales behind those selections, are collected below.

***

‘Jeb Bush … began transitioning to ‘former Presidential candidate.’’
By Erick Erikson, frequent commentator, radio host and founder of the blog RedState

This was the debate where Jeb Bush sealed the deal and began transitioning to “former Presidential candidate.” His attack on Marco Rubio was clearly planned in advance and delivered with clear reluctance in his delivery. Rubio then blew him up. That attack was so well anticipated and telegraphed with twitter accounts set up, etc., Rubio had to know about it in advance and was able to be prepared.

Rand Paul failed to gain any traction at all in the debate. He fell flat throughout. Chris Christie had few memorable moments, but all of them can at least look themselves in the mirror and say, “Thank God I’m not Rick Santorum.”

***

‘All but Rubio, Cruz, Trump and Carson should drop out.’
By Bob Shrum, Democratic presidential strategist

All but Rubio, Cruz, Trump and Carson should drop out. (I would endorse any of the last three for GOP nomination.) Bye, bye Bush. Won't happen, but should. And Christie for convention jester.

***

‘[Jeb Bush] needs to accept reality: there is no Bush 45 next year’
By Paul Goldman, former chairman of the Democratic Party of Virginia

The prime-debaters made this clear: there is no room for the four undercard matinee candidates this year. They need to go. Rubio and Cruz had their best night yet. Carson and Trump did well. Kasich tries hard yet struggles for traction. But a popular Republican conservative statewide office-holder in must-win Ohio Democratic leaning is the party’s best hope next year. All five should stay.

Christie had his most impressive performance by far. But if tonight fails to improve his image, he should go. Kentucky Senator Paul Rand had another weak showing. If his budget filibuster doesn’t improve a sagging image, he would also be wise to go. Jeb Bush is earnest. But he needs to accept reality: there is no Bush 45 next year. Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 but didn’t get nominated. He won’t even win Iowa this time. Fiorina is a skilled debater. But she isn’t a credible presidential candidate.

***

‘Rubio was the clear winner … Bush was the clear loser’
By Matt K. Lewis, Senior Contributor for the Daily Caller

Marco Rubio was the clear winner of the debate. He didn’t just hit a home run, he hit a grand slam. Ted Cruz also had a solid performance. Christie and Fiorina did well, but probably not well enough to be part of the media cycle on Thursday.

Jeb Bush was the clear loser—and Rubio’s smackdown of him (“Someone convinced you attacking me is going to help you”) was probably the moment of the night. Bush has now moved from the point where he was merely floundering, and entered territory where he might do long-term damage to his legacy.

Judging by twitter, CNBC had a rough night, too.

***

‘George Pataki should go … it’s not obvious that anyone else should get out of the race, yet.’
By Jonah Goldberg, conservative syndicated columnist and author

Who should get out of the race? As is often the case in life, the obvious answer is the boring answer. So let’s get it out of the way. George Pataki should go, because he never should have been there in the first place. He’s Jim Gilmore without the sex appeal.

Beyond that, it’s not obvious that anyone else should get out of the race, yet. The only serious argument for anybody to get out at this stage is if you think the crowded field hurts your preferred candidate. I’d rather see the primaries play out a bit longer. Sure, I’d like Donald Trump to get out, because I think he’s woefully unqualified to be president or the leader of a supposedly conservative party (Full disclosure: He says I am “truly odious” and don’t know how to buy pants). But, on his terms, there’s no clear reason for him to quit, unless the pain of being in second place is too great for him to bear. Indeed, lots of people think—perhaps mistakenly— Trump and Dr. Ben Carson won’t make it to the end, and that creates a powerful incentive for everyone to wait it out to see what happens when their departure launches the Great Reshuffling.

***

‘The patience of the people backing Bush is not endless’
By Seth Masket, associate professor and chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of Denver

In the undercard debate, only Lindsey Graham stood out as having something to say and an effective way to say it. It is hard to see any rationale at this point for the candidacies of Santorum, Jindal or Pataki. They don’t sound like particularly effective vehicles for conservative policies or particularly skilled politicians to take on Hillary Clinton next year.

Among the upper tier of candidates, it’s hard to see either Mike Huckabee or Rand Paul gaining much traction. They have their bases of support, but nothing they say suggests they have much broader appeal. But the most disappointing performances in the debates so far just have to be Jeb Bush’s. That doesn’t mean he needs to drop out of the race right away. He has a range of support among party insiders, and Bushes have shown an ability to win even when their public speeches and debate performances are lackluster. But the patience of the people backing Bush is not endless. He’ll need to do something soon to suggest he’s actually good at this.

***

‘For the sake of Republican unity and strength, Bush may very well have to drop out.’
By Douglas Schoen, pollster for President Bill Clinton

After tonight's debate, it is clear that all four candidates who participated in the “happy hour” debate—Jindal, Pataki, Santorum and Graham—should drop out. They aren’t gaining any traction and we’ve seen no break out moments. It’s time to let go.

As for the main stage, it looks like Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee should also be leaving the race as well. Neither is offering a compelling vision to the public and though they each got in a few good lines, it’s simply not enough. Paul has duties to the Senate that he should get back to and the former Arkansas Governor will undoubtedly have many opportunities other than the presidency.

I also believe that Jeb Bush needs to think long and hard about his campaign. He needed to perform this evening and fell far short. There’s a lot of GOP money behind him that can go to other candidates who are running better campaigns and may be, frankly, better equipped to run against Hillary Clinton. For the sake of Republican unity and strength, Bush may very well have to drop out.

***

‘Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee seem most likely to exit sooner rather than later’
By Anita Dunn, Democratic political strategist and the White House Communications Director from April through November 2009

Two candidates who needed to do very well did very well—Rubio and Cruz. One candidate who needed to do very well didn’t do particularly well—Bush—but stays in. The two national frontrunners—Trump and Carson—move on regardless of performance. Of the remaining candidates, Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee seem most likely to exit sooner rather than later, while Christie (good performance, even if he did trash his own state), Fiorina, Kasich each should get at least one more debate before the field winnows further.

***

‘Christie is the only candidate in the race who is hurting himself by staying in. Therefore, he should get out.’
By Bill Scher, senior writer at the Campaign for America’s Future

Most everybody at this juncture still has a reason to stay in the race. Either they are currently polling well (Trump, Carson), are financed well enough to carry them through the winter (Bush, Cruz, Rubio), have avoided harm to their standing at home (Graham, Kasich, Paul) or have nothing else better to do (Fiorina, Pataki, Huckabee, Jindal, Santorum)

The one person who does not fit any of those categories is Gov. Chris Christie.

Christie may feel he got enough applause at tonight’s debate to think he could vault into the top-tier at some point. Meanwhile, his approval rating back in New Jersey has collapsed, now is scraping 35 percent. Gov. Bobby Jindal’s Louisiana numbers are similar, but he only has two more months on the job. Christie has two years.

If he doesn’t rush back to fix his state’s rising pension costs, dwindling transportation trust fund and generally sluggish economy, he’ll be stuck with an awful gubernatorial legacy that would hamper any future political goals.

Christie is the only candidate in the race who is hurting himself by staying in. Therefore, he should get out.


***

‘Rand Paul is done … Huckabee [is] … not actually running for President.’
By John Neffinger, director of the Franklin Forum PAC and lecturer on political communications at Georgetown and Columbia Universities

If I'm Reince Priebus (not something I contemplate often), here’s my thinking:

Rand Paul is done. There is an old saying in the public speaking business, ‘Your audience will never be more excited about your material than you are.’ It seems like he is not even trying to get people interested in supporting him, he’s just there on stage because there at least people can occasionally hear him grip about the rest of the field.

Huckabee too is not trying to win, he’s just there to be part of the conversation. And he’s pleasant, and he occasionally offers a refreshingly different take on things, but he’s not actually running for President. The Republican party needs to winnow and focus on real contenders, which means his time on the island is up.

You can also make a solid case that Christie, Kasich and Fiorina are going nowhere fast and should be shown the door. But they are fighting hard and looking at least as good in these debates as the candidates considered front-runners. On gender, geography and math skills, they add diversity to the field. Let ‘em stay.

***

‘Jeb Bush looked desperate … Carly Fiorina ensured a continued slide in the polls … Ben Carson [looked] dazed, confused, and completely unprepared’
By John Hudak, Brookings fellow in Governance Studies and author of the FixGov blog

One of the surprises from the CNBC GOP debate was the strong performances turned in by some of the poorest polling candidates in the race. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Chris Christie all gave strong responses, commanded time, connected with voters and distinguished themselves as worth a continued look. Their money won’t dry up instantly in the way it would have had their performances gone awry. They did no harm and might have done themselves well enough to call themselves presidential candidates while they sit down to eat turkey and gravy.

A few candidate performances went in the other direction. Jeb Bush looked desperate (a fair reflection of reality). Carly Fiorina ensured a continued slide in the polls, as she remained fairly anonymous on stage. Ben Carson, entering the night with the wind at his back, looked more like a candidate with the sun in his eyes—dazed, confused, and completely unprepared to debate the issues relevant for a presidential race. It’s not clear that anyone will be forced to drop out of the race because of this debate. However, those nearest (or even spiking above) Donald Trump in the polls will likely find themselves just as frustrated by the fact that Trump remains relevant and ahead of the competition.

One group, however, failed miserably tonight, and that was the cast of characters moderating the debate. They relied heavily on bad, aggressive, seemingly pointless, personal questions. When an effective question stunningly slipped from moderators’ lips, they let candidates dodge and pivot from them, utterly failing to push them to stay on point. In a campaign season in which moderators have done a fairly effective job at herding the oversized debate classes, but tonight, the media put forward a poor performance.

***

‘Why should anyone drop out now?’
By Jeff Greenfield, five-time Emmy-winning network television analyst and author

Why should anyone drop out now? Each of these candidates, even those at the kiddie table, have reached some pretty impressive heights in their lives: They are or have been governors, senators, CEOs, prominent surgeons. They’ve invested months, maybe a year or more of their lives, enduring the torments of lagging campaigns: bad food, bad hotels, cancelled flights, small or nonexistent crowds.

If they are now engaged in a delusion that their time will come, they have enough examples in history to fuel that delusion (Even tonight, those who wrote Chris Christie off may be having second thoughts). And if they are wrong, they will find out soon enough. In 2008, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd—two veteran Senators—and Bill Richardson—Congressman, governor, cabinet member—saw the returns from Iowa and threw in their cards. That will happen to as many as half a dozen of these candidates this time. So what’s the rush?

***

‘Santorum is a reason to not get out at all.’
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball

The example of Tim Pawlenty’s early exit in the 2012 cycle is often cited as a reason not to get out of a race too soon. The example of Rick Santorum is a reason to not get out at all.

That Santorum, a total afterthought for almost all of 2011, was able to come out of nowhere to be in the right place at the right time and win Iowa, is an inspiration to even the most hopeless candidate.

***

‘Forget cutting candidates. Let’s cut this awful ‘debate’ format.’
By Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics

Forget cutting candidates. Let’s cut this awful “debate” format. It’s terrible, and almost everybody across the spectrum agrees.

Some of us have urged from the beginning that this historically large Republican field should be separated into two groups, by lot, for each debate. Maybe it should even be three groups—an hour of primetime devoted to each. (When the field eventually, substantially shrinks, everyone can be at the same table.)

Have one moderator, and put the candidates at a table, sitting not standing. The moderator’s job would be to keep time and serve as a traffic cop among participants and topics, but not to argue with the candidates.

The contenders would have a discussion among themselves—no doubt heated at times, pushing and pulling for notice and arguments, but up to them to control, occasionally with the moderator’s aid.

Has the Republican National Committee had enough chaos and confrontational free-for-alls driven by media moderators? Then step up to the plate, correct the mistakes you made, and at last, do the sensible thing.