The big CHOKE????

The Daily 202: In the clutch, will Jeb Bush perform? Or choke?

By James Hohmann and Elise Viebeck

The stakes in tonight’s debate are as high for Jeb Bush as anyone else. A week after his campaign’s major downsizing, I’m hearing from some already-nervous Bush donors that they will close their checkbooks if the ex-Florida governor doesn’t have a breakout moment. Because he’s slipped in the polls, Jeb’s podium will move further from center stage toward the wings. This makes his mission of standing out even harder.

A Daily 202 reader sent me a copy of the 45-slide PowerPoint deck that the Bush high command delivered to bundlers on Monday at a retreat in Houston. It is unsurprisingly upbeat spin, but here are three takeaways from reading it and interviews with others about the state of Bush’s campaign:

The campaign is fixated on Marco Rubio, who has clearly emerged as the gravest threat to Bush: Campaign manager Danny Diaz wrapped up his presentation by ripping into Rubio, calling him “a GOP Obama” and stressing that “those closest to Marco chose Jeb.” Ben Carson and Donald Trump, the two leaders in the polls, were hardly mentioned in the PowerPoint. That’s not terribly surprising since they’re not in Jeb’s lane as a candidate, so they are not ultimately his biggest concern.

Rubio has gained on Bush in their home state of Florida, and both now trail Trump in the polls. The Tampa Bay Times, which routinely polls 160 top Sunshine State politicos, reports that “confidence is dropping” in Bush: “In late August, more than 85 percent of our Political Insiders predicted Bush would win Florida’s primary. This week, just 42 percent predicted Bush would win, while 33 percent said Rubio and 22 percent said Trump.” One cautionary note for Rubio: he must tread more lightly than Bush in attacking the other because he needs Jeb’s finance network to ultimately fall in line if he’s going to prevail.

The Bush team is leaning very heavily on establishment endorsements that mean almost nothing to real voters: For all the rhetoric about disrupting Washington, Jeb sure is proud of the backing he’s getting from paragons of the status quo. One slide notes that “Bush has more Congressional public support than any other candidate.” Another lists notable endorsements. Among them: Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush. One of the anti-Rubio slides notes that Bush got 11 endorsements from the Florida House delegation and Rubio only got one. The campaign stressed that Rubio has not received a single endorsement from another senator, but Bush has three and 20 House members.

“Electability” is a core part of Jeb’s message to donors: Senior staffers stressed that Bush is the candidate who can win the White House, highlighting Bush’s standing with independents, Hispanics and women in national polls of registered voters. They also emphasize that Bush is seen as more presidential than Trump. The “communications plan” involves demonstrating that Bush “cares about people like me” and would be a “strong leader” as Commander-in-Chief.

Bush advisers believe that, if they can survive long enough for the field to winnow to two or three candidates, Jeb could be the most acceptable of those left standing. So, hypothetically, if the race comes down to Carson, Ted Cruz and Jeb, a lot of Republicans who don’t want to support Bush right now will rally around a better general election candidate. That argument was implicit in the discussion about ballot access in all 50 states and building an organization in states that vote later in the process.

One of the slides notes that Jeb “consistently” beats Hillary Rodham Clinton in the polls. The example given, from mid-September, shows the two within the margin of error. In keeping with that broader theme, the Bush campaign is releasing a two-minute web video today that contrasts Clinton talking about taxing the rich with Bush promising to return power to the states.

Mike Murphy e-mailed donors last night to say that the Right to Rise super PAC is 55 percent of the way toward its fundraising goal for the second six months of the year (he did not say what that number is). The strategist noted that Trump was in second place in a national CBS/New York Times poll released yesterday, and that Jeb was “in a statistical tie” for third place. (He and Carly Fiorina each pulled 7 percent, behind Carson’s 26 percent, Trump’s 22 percent and Rubio’s 8 percent.) “At this early point in the race, third place is the perfect position to be in,” wrote Murphy, adding that Trump and Carson would “lose in a landslide” to Hillary. “As the race moves on, and GOP voters ‘move to quality,’ I am confident support for Jeb will continue to grow.”

To be sure, Bush has a lot going for him. He’s building a robust organization in the early states, with boots on the ground and lots of voter contacts. He still has way more money than most in the field and some of the smartest people in politics are working for him. His last name, while a major liability in a general, gives him a floor of support in the primaries that could keep him in the race into late March. He’s laying out detailed, substantive policy papers that help him position himself as the candidate of ideas. Yesterday, for example, Jeb outlined his plans for Social Security and Medicaid.

If Jeb does better in tonight’s debate than the previous ones, this could be a good week for him. Chuck Todd will go to Florida to interview Bush on “Meet the Press” Sunday. On Monday, the campaign rolls out an e-book, built around e-mails Bush exchanged with his constituents, to try highlighting the ex-governor’s conservative Tallahassee record.

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING:

— Trump whined about his falling Iowa poll numbers during a rally in Sioux City last night. “What the hell are you people doing to me?” he demanded of a crowd. “Iowa, will you get your numbers up, please? Will you get these numbers up? I promise you: I will do such a good job.”