Sanders money...

Insiders: Sanders needs big money

The consensus on the Vermont senator's cash haul: Small-dollars donors aren't enough to beat Hillary Clinton.

By Katie Glueck

Bernie Sanders rails against big money in politics and insists that he doesn’t want an allied super PAC — but the majority of Democrats in early states say he can’t rely on smaller-dollar donors alone if he wants to beat Hillary Clinton.

That’s the assessment of this week’s POLITICO Caucus, our bipartisan survey of the top activists, operatives and strategists in the early states. This week, the Caucus has expanded to include South Carolina and Nevada in addition to our insiders already participating in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The consensus on Sanders’ need for big money was strong: 83 percent of South Carolina Democrats, 62 percent of Nevada Democrats and 54 percent of New Hampshire Democrats said he cannot beat Clinton with only small-dollar donors. Of Iowa Democrats, 40 percent said the same.

Insiders from those states said that at best he could win a contest or two, but the big donations and unlimited contributions that a super PAC brings would be essential if his campaign stretches into the later stages of the primary season.

"Small donors are an important component but if the campaign drifts into the larger more expensive states he will need more dollars than he will receive from just small donors," said one South Carolina Democrat, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely.

Agreed an Iowa Democrat, "During the caucus, absolutely. But it's difficult to go deep into the primary without the resources to back a full campaign in several states."

Sanders, a frequent critic of Wall Street and the Citizens United decision that ushered in the super PAC era, has repeatedly pledged not to accept super PAC support. In the second quarter of the year, he pulled in more money from the smallest of the small-dollar donors – those giving $200 or less – than any other candidate in the 2016 field. And his strength among small donors appears to have carried over into the third quarter too.

While his full financial filing for the last period hasn’t been released yet, his campaign said Wednesday that he raised more than $25 million, nearing Clinton’s $28 million haul.

In 2008, Barack Obama also relied heavily on small-dollar donors, Caucus insiders noted. But some cautioned that that was before super PACs assumed the outsized role they now play in presidential contests, ratcheting up the costs of campaigns dramatically.

"Small donors might make some larger donors start to pay attention but you can't win by relying exclusively on small donors," a South Carolina Democrat said.

"Barack Obama raised millions from small donors, but his candidacy was unprecedented in doing this," noted another. "Bernie Sanders does not have the same status as a candidate that Barack Obama did."

Respondents from Iowa and New Hampshire, who have seen more of Sanders, and where his poll numbers have steadily increased, were more likely to say Sanders could beat Clinton relying solely on smaller-dollar contributors than were Democrats from South Carolina and Nevada. But only among Iowa Democrats did a majority -- 60 percent-- say Sanders could beat Clinton without bigger donors, while New Hampshire Democrats were closer to evenly divided, with slightly more saying that he couldn't do so.

That geographical divide played out on the Republican side as well: Iowa and New Hampshire Republicans said Sanders could beat Clinton without bigger donors (88 percent of New Hampshire Republicans said he could do so), while majorities of Republicans in Nevada and South Carolina said he couldn't. The caveat across the board, however, was that small-dollar donors could propel him through the first few contests but he needs more heft to get across the finish line.

"Certainly in NH, he can but for him to win the whole thing, he needs an ongoing and intensifying firestorm," a New Hampshire Republican said. "[Were] that to really occur, all the parties in the Hamptons and the Hollywood Hills would not rescue her."

Added an Iowa Republican, "Maybe in Iowa... but not in the long run. Ask Ron Paul how it worked for him."

Another Iowa Republican was more skeptical: "Even a socialist has to understand math. It doesn't add up. She'll crush him."

(Some insiders responded before Sanders’ announced his third-quarter haul.)