Fizzles

Trump-Bush feud fizzles as race shifts to serious

Fights marked the summer, but for the top 2016 Republicans, a new phase is beginning – the endurance test.

By Eli Stokols

Five weeks ago, Donald Trump decided to hold a New Hampshire town hall just 19 miles from where Jeb Bush was doing the same. It was a power move, coming just as the summer feud between GOP front-runners past and present was heating up, intended to set up a split-screen contrast of crowd size, passion and energy.

On Wednesday night, Bush and Trump were back, again hosting dueling events in this early-voting state — but the thrill is all gone. The drama and consequence of their exceedingly personal sparring, so palpable in late summer, has faded, offering more evidence of just how fluid the Republican primary fight remains and how quickly candidates’ fortunes and the overall landscape can shift.

Although polls still show Trump atop the field in New Hampshire and nationally, his support is starting to recede. Bush, whose huge financial advantage all but guarantees his staying power, can’t rise above single digits but is working quietly to pick up important activists, filling his time between public events sitting down with business owners and activists hoping to secure commitments to carry him into the next phase.

After the summer’s made-for-TV catfight, both candidates seem less concerned about each other, girding instead for what’s sure to be a brutal endurance test that is really just beginning.

"Neither one of these guys has solidified his position as the party's default or even likely nominee," said Charlie Arlinghaus,a Republican activist in New Hampshire and president of the conservative Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy. "And if you read into the polls, you see that only 13 percent of the people have actually decided. If that's true, neither Jeb nor Trump nor anyone else wants to make this a one-on-one or be viewed as an alternative to any other candidate. You have to start establishing your own credentials."

Ironically enough in this state where retail politics and personal interactions have long been a requirement, a candidate who has shown up far less is well positioned to capitalize on the inability of Trump and Bush to catch on: Marco Rubio, who passed Bush in the most recent poll of New Hampshire Republicans and has, not surprisingly, become Trump’s new target.

“People are only starting to pay attention right now,and they’re looking for alternatives both to Trump and to any candidate who might be perceived as part of the establishment,” said Drew Cline, the long-time editorial page editor of the New Hampshire Union Leader who is leaving his job to start a political consulting business and, incidentally, hosting house parties forRubio and Carly Fiorina next week.

“Rubio is in a great position to take advantage of the dissatisfaction with Trump and with the old guard Republicans who people think are just going to nominate whoever's turn is next.”

Like Trump’s position as the current front-runner, Rubio’s rise in the polls after a second strong debate performance is a reflection of what has been a surprisingly nationalized primary fight to this point. But as the race turns to fall and voters begin to pay closer attention, candidates focused on succeeding in February and March will have to connect with voters in person, not just over the airwaves.

That could prove more challenging for Trump, who took a few questions earlier this month at a town hall in Rochester but generally prefers speaking off the cuff to larger audiences inside stadiums and arenas and then boasting about the size of the crowd.

“Trump doesn’t really take a lot of questions or shake a lot of hands,and voters don’t get to really interact with the candidate,” said Fergus Cullen, a former chairman of the New Hampshire GOP. “If Trump’s poll numbers start dropping and half of his argument is ‘look at my ratings, poll numbers’ — a TV show that loses viewers gets cancelled and I think that’s eventually what happens to Donald Trump.”

By comparison, Bush, along with John Kasich and Carly Fiorina, have been holding town halls, taking questions, marching in parades, shaking hands and posing for “selfies” for months. Ben Carson, running second in an average of New Hampshire polls, was also there Wednesday.

On Wednesday morning, Bush participated in a town hall on drug addiction at Catholic Medical Center in Manchester, showing a slightly more personal side in referencing his daughter Noelle's struggles with drug abuse. Bush also made a retail stop at a restaurant and taped an interview with CNN inside a Dunkin'Donuts; and Wednesday evening he’ll host a town hall in Bedford as Trump does his event in Keene.

Despite his demonstrated commitment to New Hampshire, Bush is a long way from closing the sale; the unexpected success of Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who has attracted a number of establishment Republicans who’d otherwise likely have backed Bush, has hurt.

But Bush is working assiduously to court important activists in the state and quietly picking up new commitments, like that of Andy Crews, the CEO of a group of auto dealers and one of roughly 30 New Hampshire business owners invited to a private roundtable luncheon with Bushon Wednesday.

“So many people see his name and immediately discount going in that direction,” Crews said. “I had the same experience, but then I met him and started talking to my friends in Florida and looking at his record. The people in the room today had the same reaction; I could see their faces changing as he spoke. The discussion after he left was much different than it was before he got there.

On Tuesday evening, Bush showed up at the Portsmouth home of Renee Plummer, an important Seacoast Republican who remains uncommitted, for an intimate dinner party with 16 other local business owners and activists including the state's formerRepublican National Committee member Sean Mahoney.

"He was great, very relaxed," Plummer said. "I wish more people could see him the way he is in an intimate setting."

In an interview Wednesday morning, Bush compared himself to John McCain, whose campaign was declared dead months before he went on to win the New Hampshire primary in 2008 en route to securing the Republican nomination.

Unlike McCain and certainly Mitt Romney in 2012, Bush is not the only plausible option for the state's more moderate-leaning Republicans,who typically hold sway come the second week of February. But if tradition holds and New Hampshire voters reward the candidates who demonstrate substance on a range of issues and a willingness to work hard for every vote, Bush is probably a better bet than Trump, despite their current poll positions.

“While there’s a quarter of the electorate who’s never going to be with Jeb, he’s still broadly acceptable to most primary voters,even if they’re looking for an alternative now,” Cullen said. “They might wind up with Rubio or Kasich, but they’re all going to be with Jeb in the end if he’s the nominee. You can’t say that about Trump.”