Carson poll streak

Carson extends streak of besting Trump in Iowa polls

By Nick Gass

Ben Carson is beating Donald Trump where it hurts most — in his polling numbers.

The streak of polls showing Carson pulling away from Trump in Iowa extended on Monday, with the latest Monmouth University poll of likely Republican caucus participants revealing Carson with a 14-point lead over the Manhattan mogul.

Along all ideological lines, among evangelicals and non-evangelicals and among women and men, Carson leads Trump and the rest of the Republican presidential field in the survey.

Carson earned 32 percent in the first caucus state, up 9 points from the university's last survey in August. Trump, who was tied with Carson at 23 percent two months ago, took in 18 percent, a 5-point drop.

In a separate Loras College poll of likely Iowa GOP caucus participants also released Monday, Carson took 31 percent, while Trump again placed second with 19 percent.

Trump has been dismissive of the polls indicating trouble in Iowa, after separate results last week from Quinnipiac University and Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register (conducted by Selzer & Co.) showed him coming in second to Carson. The candidate frequently mentions his standing in the polls, touting positive results from Massachusetts in an interview with radio host Hugh Hewitt last week after remarking that he was "not sure he agrees" with Quinnipiac's results.

“I don’t believe those polls, by the way, because both of those pollsters don’t like me,” Trump told the crowd at a Miami campaign event last Friday.

The retired neurosurgeon leads Trump by 9 points (31 percent to 22 percent) among very conservative voters, up from just one point in August, by 21 points among somewhat conservative voters (39 percent to 18 percent), up from two points in August, and by 17 points among moderate or liberal voters (29 percent to 17 percent). In August, Trump held a 9-point lead (26 percent to 17 percent) with that particular group.

In the August Monmouth survey, Trump held a 27 percent-to-17 percent advantage over Carson among men, but Carson now leads among that group as well, 31 percent to 20 percent. Among women, Carson's advantage is mostly unchanged, at 34 percent to 17 percent.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz tied for third with 10 percent each, followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 8 percent, Carly Fiorina at 5 percent, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 3 percent, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Ohio Gov. John Kasich all knotted at 2 percent each. None of the other candidates received more than 1 percent, while 1 percent said they were uncommitted and 5 percent said they were undecided.

Just 19 percent of likely caucus-goers said they are fully decided on their choice, but that still marks an increase from 12 percent in August.

The poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 22-25, surveying 400 Iowa voters likely to attend February's Republican caucus. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.