Snarl the GOP megabill

The clean energy boom that could snarl the GOP megabill

Arizona Rep. Juan Ciscomani and other rank-and-file Republicans are facing a tough choice: resist Donald Trump’s efforts to gut Democrats’ climate law or incur the wrath of constituents who could lose billions in investments and thousands of new jobs.

By James Bikales

An Arizona Republican’s swing district is experiencing a clean energy boom. He may have to buck Donald Trump to protect it.

Since Rep. Juan Ciscomani took office in 2023, electric car manufacturer Lucid Motors quadrupled the size of its plant in Casa Grande, bringing thousands of additional jobs to his economically struggling district. Further east, across Tucson’s suburbs and beyond, utilities, farms and residents are flocking to install solar in a bid to temper rising electricity prices.

And the SunZia transmission line, part of the country’s largest clean energy project, is set to carry gigawatts of wind power across the northern half of his district, transporting much-needed power to Phoenix and California.

But that growth is partly driven by incentives in Democrats’ 2022 climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, which Trump has derided as the “Green New Scam” and Republican leaders are looking to cut to help pay for a massive tax, border security and energy package.

That is going to force dozens of rank-and-file Republicans like Ciscomani to make a difficult decision: resist Trump’s efforts to gut the IRA or incur the wrath of constituents who could lose billions of dollars in clean energy investments and tens of thousands of new jobs. But these lawmakers also risk drawing the ire of the president and his allies if they slow the final package or vote against it. The House Ways and Means Committee portion of the bill, released this week, would gut many of the IRA’s clean energy tax credits.

For Ciscomani, a rising star in the GOP who holds one of the most competitive House seats in the nation, the decision could be a pivotal one for his political future — and that of his party. With Republicans holding a slim majority in the House, Trump endorsed Ciscomani’s bid for a third term last month. But Democrats — who have identified him as one of their top targets — are already preparing their attacks if he votes to cut clean energy programs or limit safety-net programs like Medicaid in the reconciliation package.

So far, Ciscomani has looked to toe the line. He has signed onto two letters urging leadership to preserve at least some of the IRA’s credits, and met recently with Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.), whose committee holds jurisdiction over the credits, to make his case.

“I’ve made it clear what I’m going to be fighting for,” Ciscomani said in an interview.

But he’ll have to make a decision once Republicans bring the full package to the floor, which they aim to do by Memorial Day. Ciscomani, along with other Republicans who have called to preserve the IRA, in March voted for the budget resolution that is allowing the GOP to attempt to pass the package without Democratic votes.

Kirsten Engel, a University of Arizona environmental law professor and former Democratic candidate who narrowly lost to Ciscomani in 2022 and 2024, said the climate law has been transformative for the district — and residents will be closely watching whether Ciscomani votes to protect it.

“It’s one thing to say that you support this — it’s another thing to actually vote in a manner that’s going to make sure that this money actually is available,” said Engel, who is not currently planning another run. “It seems like he’s trying to have his cake and eat it too.”

Ciscomani acknowledged he hasn’t yet drawn any red lines on the clean energy credits. But he emphasized how important they are to companies such as Lucid Motors, which he helped recruit to Arizona a decade ago as an aide to then-Republican Gov. Doug Ducey.

“As much as there are other aspects of the IRA we [Republicans] can disagree with, these tax credits have had an impact in my district — and on job creation, on investment, also national security, because of energy production and having wanted to bring that more domestically,” he said.

The clean energy boom has opened new doors for many of Ciscomani’s constituents, like Ruben Subia. When Subia left the military and returned home to Casa Grande, he figured he would have to follow many of his high school classmates to Phoenix or Tucson for a higher-paying job. But Lucid was hiring for its new factory, offering high-paying jobs right in town and a chance to put his skills in the trades to work. Subia became one of the first 1,000 employees at the plant, which has since expanded to 2,800 after it quadrupled its footprint last year.

The jobs at Lucid have been “life-changing” for many in Casa Grande, giving them the opportunity to buy a car or a house for the first time, said Subia, who now works in human resources. His two brothers, who are also veterans, have joined him at Lucid.

The IRA helped supercharge a manufacturing boom in the city of 64,000, a former agricultural and mining town. Proctor and Gamble and several semiconductor chemical manufacturers have followed Lucid to the area. Two copper mines that could eventually supply Lucid are in development on the city’s outskirts. And Central Arizona College launched a training center just outside town that has prepared thousands of locals to work at Lucid and the other factories.

Population and median income are up, and businesses are streaming back, buoyed by the wages from Lucid, which is now Pinal County’s largest employer. Target announced in February it would reopen a store in Casa Grande it closed in 2016.

Casa Grande Mayor Lisa Navarro Fitzgibbons, who has lived in the area since the 1970s, said the partisanship around the IRA credits “drives me crazy” because they have only brought jobs and growth to towns like hers.

“As we continue to see some of these cuts and changes in legislation, we are the ones that are struggling and scrambling,” said Fitzgibbons, who signed a letter alongside 15 other mayors in April urging lawmakers to preserve the full suite of credits. Fitzgibbons’ position is nonpartisan.

House Republicans’ proposal would eliminate all of the IRA’s consumer EV credits within two years and curtail the advanced manufacturing credit that has spurred a wave of factory investments across the country.

While Lucid’s factory was planned before the IRA passed, it benefits from the manufacturing incentive for the battery packs it assembles and the consumer EV tax credit for leased vehicles. The company also hopes to claim the EV credit for its upcoming cheaper midsize SUV, planned for 2026 release.

“It’s not that we won’t be here [if the credits are eliminated], but the growth curve will be a lot slower, the job opportunities will be less,” said Adrian Price, Lucid’s senior vice president of operations.

Price said the company aligns well with the Trump administration’s goals of bringing vehicle manufacturing back to the United States. Unlike many other manufacturers, Lucid does its stamping in-house in Casa Grande — meaning its cars enter the factory as massive coils of U.S.-sourced aluminum and drive out ready to be delivered.

But “manufacturing is a hugely capital-intensive business … and you have to be careful about how you invest and grow,” Price said. “Those credits and those opportunities are part of the fabric of how we structure the business to enable us to grow at the fastest rate we can.”

It’s not just Lucid that could feel the pain of the cuts in Ciscomani’s district. The region’s thriving solar industry is helping temper electricity prices amid surging power demand — but a combination of the uncertainty around tariffs and the tax credits has already led companies to pull back, said John Mitman, president of the Arizona Solar Energy Industries Association.

Utility rates in the region have surged in recent years, Mitman noted. “I think we’ll see even higher rate increases if [the credits for solar] go away, because it is really the primary source of most of that new generation capacity,” he said.

Mitman is founder and CEO of solar developer Obodo Energy, which just completed a 4-megawatt solar installation at a commercial farm in Willcox, an agricultural town in the heart of Ciscomani’s district.

The project, which benefits from the tech-neutral clean electricity credit in the IRA, aims to fully offset power demand from three greenhouses, taking strain off the local grid and allowing the farm to grow more cucumbers and tomatoes, according to Mitman.

As produce-laden trucks make their way to Interstate 10, they pass under the hulking towers of the nearly-complete SunZia transmission line. The 550-mile-long project, expected to begin operations in 2026, will carry 3 gigawatts of wind energy from central New Mexico to power-hungry customers in Arizona.

A SunZia spokesperson said the line itself is not receiving IRA subsidies, but the wind project is eligible for the clean electricity credit for the power it generates. Republicans have proposed restricting that credit and moving up its sunset date.

Just a few miles south of Willcox, Sal Tirrito and his wife Yuri are building their dream property: a farmstead retreat focused around sustainable practices. Opposite the six luxury yurts for overnight guests, Tirrito has plans for a solar canopy over the parking lot, which would power the onsite cafe.

Tirrito was recently awarded a grant for the project under the Agriculture Department’s Rural Energy for America Program, which received a huge infusion from the IRA. But with the future of the funding uncertain, he has decided to hold off for now rather than front the money and hope to get reimbursed given its half-million dollar price tag.

Democrats and advocates say tough decisions like these are only the beginning if the climate law is gutted — and they are pressuring Ciscomani to defend the incentives.

JoAnna Mendoza, a Marine veteran and Democrat who has filed to challenge Ciscomani, said her campaign will highlight the real-world impacts of the IRA, from job opportunities to lower energy bills. Ciscomani, she argued, has only provided “lip service” by failing to challenge Trump’s funding freezes and cuts to clean energy programs.

Ciscomani “shows up for the ribbon cuttings and then turns around and cuts funding,” Mendoza said. “I think voters, the constituency, is starting to see that.”

Chris Donat, another Democratic candidate, pointed to the regular demonstrations against the Republican budget bill that Democrats and others are holding outside Ciscomani’s office in Tucson, saying voters are angry their lawmaker has not bucked Trump on clean energy and other issues and is “obviously afraid to stand up for what he at least originally believed in.”

National Democrats are also turning their attention to the tightly contested district. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-N.Y.) drew more than 10,000 people to a March rally in Tucson for their “Fighting Oligarchy” tour while Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) held a town hall in April to highlight the impacts of potential Medicaid cuts — and point out Ciscomani has not held his own in-person town halls for constituents.

The cuts and limitations to the safety-net health program proposed by House Republicans to help pay for their bill further complicate Ciscomani’s calculus on the clean energy cuts. More than 30,000 adults in Ciscomani’s district are at risk of losing coverage while hospitals could be closed if federal funds dry up, according to research from Daniel Derksen, director of the University of Arizona Center for Rural Health.

Ciscomani was among the dozen Republicans to declare in April they would not vote for a bill that cuts Medicaid for vulnerable populations.

Ciscomani said in the interview that Medicaid is his only red line “so far,” but he dismissed his Democratic opponents’ claims that he would fold on the clean energy credits.

“These Democrats, they’re straight up just grasping at straws at this point,” Ciscomani said.

GOP state Sen. T.J. Shope, who represents Casa Grande and serves as president pro tempore, said he had “no doubt” Ciscomani — whom he has known for a decade — will be able to navigate the difficult decisions on the reconciliation bill.

“If history serves as any indicator, he does a very good job of walking a tightrope,” Shope said. “He does a very good job listening to his constituents.”