Ukraine on ammo deliveries

Czech president reassures Ukraine on ammo deliveries

Petr Pavel is calling for Europe to be able to work independently of the U.S. but “not necessarily separately.”

By Jacopo Barigazzi

Czech President Petr Pavel is stepping into his country's turbulent politics to ensure military aid to Ukraine continues no matter who takes power after the October election — even if that results in a comeback by populist frontrunner Andrej Babiš.

Pavel rounded up all Czech political parties last week for a heart-to-heart “to make sure that the principles of the security of the Czech Republic are understood by all of them," he told POLITICO in an interview.

The main target was the ANO party, led by former Prime Minister Babiš, which is leading in POLITICO’s Poll of Polls. ANO has expressed skepticism on continued support for Ukraine and especially on the Czech-led effort to supply Kyiv with 1.8 million artillery shells this year.

"The main opposition party … is not against continuing our ammunition initiative. ... I think that the ammunition initiative won’t be jeopardized in any way,” Pavel said. “They only put a great emphasis on transparency of the process, which obviously is very justified.”

Karel Havlíček, ANO deputy chairman, didn't deny the assurances that Pavel said he obtained, but stressed the ammunition deal is "non-transparent."

"Based on the information we have, there are inappropriate profit margins, poor quality and questionable suppliers involved. For these reasons, it should be managed at the NATO level," Havlíček told POLITICO, saying the party planned to file a criminal complaint over how the government of Prime Minister Petr Fiala has managed the program.

Pavel's effort to ensure that shells continue to flow to Kyiv despite any political turmoil at home is part of a larger program of buttressing European security in the face of growing geopolitical tensions driven by fear of Russia and worry about the U.S. stepping back from its security commitments under Donald Trump.

Boosting Europe in NATO

Pavel, a former army general who has also served as chair of the NATO Military Committee, called for Europe to beef up its own defense efforts to be able to work independently of the U.S. but “not necessarily separately.”

The “time has come ... to stop relying on anyone and to be finally our own masters in Europe,” he said. The aim is to have a European pillar within NATO capable of “operations with Americans, if they wish so, or without if they are busy elsewhere.”

That nuanced comment is common across much of traditionally pro-American Central Europe, where continued reliance on the U.S. for security is seen as crucial to defend against Russia.

Part of the effort to boost capabilities involves spending much more on the military. Trump has demanded that NATO allies boost their defense budgets to 5 percent of GDP from the current alliance target of at least 2 percent.

That will be hashed out at next month's NATO summit in The Hague, but Pavel said Europe needs “to commit ourselves to more than 3 percent."

"If the discussion in The Hague leads us to a general agreement that we need to spend up to 5 percent, [the] Czech Republic is ready to support it," Pavel said during a Wednesday visit to NATO's military headquarters.

“We should pay more attention to concrete military capabilities rather than percentage of GDP," Pavel said. If there’s a war, the generals will have to fight it “with concrete weapons, ships, aircraft that will be combat ready.” 

There is a recognition that Europe has to do a better job of building up its own"strategic enablers" — things like air transport, intelligence and logistics that currently rely on U.S. capabilities.

What is needed, Pavel said, is “an open debate” with the U.S. to “ask our American friends: If you talk about a strong partner in Europe, how strong do you see the European pillar? The question is if the United States really wants Europe that strong.”

Despite his strongly pro-Ukraine stance, Pavel said “frankly it's not realistic, in a short timeframe” for Ukraine to be invited to join NATO in the face of opposition from the Trump administration. But he stressed that allies should "not abandon this idea” because Kyiv would strengthen NATO by joining.

He also called on Ukraine's allies to continue squeezing Russia with tougher economic sanctions. "We should also create much greater pressure on the economic side because it's clear that the Russia has big difficulties.”