Harris not to run for governor

California Republicans would love Kamala Harris to run for governor

Harris could nationalize the governor’s race and create a fundraising bonanza for longshot GOP hopefuls.

By Jeremy B. White

California Republicans love to hate Kamala Harris. And they’d really love her to run for governor.

Republicans are exceedingly unlikely to win a governor’s race in the deep-blue state. But Harris’s possible entry is already bringing GOP candidates tactical benefits, allowing them to run against a high-profile adversary who’s likely to energize donors and the conservative rank-and-file.

The former vice president has given herself until late summer to decide whether to run, leaving the Democratic field in a state of suspended animation. Republicans aren’t waiting. In interviews, fundraising emails, and remarks to voters, they are acting as if Harris is already in the ring.

Conservative pundit Steve Hilton and firebrand Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco have launched campaigns focused on what they call failed Democratic governance — a point they’ve both hammered in Fox News appearances — and are holding up Harris as a prime example.

Hilton told donors in a recent email appeal that Harris was ramping up to run, warning a Democratic “coronation” would be disastrous for the state. He said in an interview that Harris “embodies the failures of the past.”

“I sense that this is the best shot for someone to be elected statewide in California who’s not a Democrat for at least 20 years, and I think the evident reason for that is the failure of one-party rule,” Hilton said. “The candidate who’s going to win in 2026, regardless of party label, is the change candidate. Kamala Harris is the one who least represents change.”

The emerging strategy to focus on Harris mirrors the approach of other longshot congressional contenders who ran against Nancy Pelosi, Maxine Waters and Kevin McCarthy. But the governor’s race is unfolding on a larger scale and allows comparatively unknown Republicans to piggyback on the same attacks President Donald Trump leveled against Harris — energizing donors while generating Fox News coverage and, possibly, attention from Trump.

“I think it could attract some donors from around the country who might be interested in taking another pound of flesh,” said Republican political consultant Dave Gilliard, who is not working for any governor candidates. “Money is the biggest obstacle other than the registration because the donor world doesn’t think a Republican can be elected governor anymore.”

There’s also the possibility a Harris candidacy would lure Elon Musk out of his self-imposed hiatus from political giving, helping to erase Republicans’ fundraising deficit. Musk has heaped disdain on Harris, who last month jabbed at Musk’s failed intervention in a Wisconsin judge race. (A spokesperson for Musk’s Super PAC declined to comment).

Similarly, southern California Republican and Trump acolyte Richard Grenell has repeatedly suggested he’d jump into the race if Harris runs. Grenell, who did not respond to a request for comment, could tap into a MAGA base eager to undercut Harris.

Bianco said he’d “jump for joy” at the opportunity to spotlight what he called Harris’ abysmal record on criminal justice. Californians have embraced tougher penalties in recent years, while Harris — a former California attorney general — remained neutral on a popular tough-on-crime ballot measure.

A Harris representative declined to comment on Republicans’ enthusiasm for her candidacy.

California remains a staunchly Democratic state in which 59 percent of voters chose Harris over Trump in 2024. But Harris underperformed former President Joe Biden’s 2020 results across the state as Trump flipped purple counties and made inroads in blue areas. Republicans believe those results testify to Harris’ weakness and show centrist and Latino voters are persuadable.

“She won two statewide elections, and she won in California when she was running for president,” Bianco said. “But those votes didn’t go to Kamala Harris. Those votes went against Donald Trump.”

Harris would still bring formidable advantages: near-universal name recognition, an enormous war chest, and the ability to consolidate support from California’s political elites. She could also clear the field of most Democratic rivals, making it more likely she romps to a lopsided general election win against a Republican after a primary in which the top two vote-getters advance, regardless of party.

As donors and endorsers await her decision, Democratic candidates have streamed into the 2026 field — among them, former Rep. Katie Porter, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, and Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis.

“If she’s beatable (and if she runs) it won’t be by a Republican,” Democratic political consultant Dan Newman, who worked with Harris’ California-based political consultants, said in a text message. “For now at least, Republicans can’t win statewide.”

Former California Republican Party Chair Jessica Millan Patterson acknowledged in an interview that it would be “an uphill battle” to break Democrats’ monopoly on statewide office. But, she said, Harris’ presence on the ticket could activate Republican donors who would otherwise see the race as a lost cause.

“We saw that in congressional races, that whoever was going to run against Speaker McCarthy or Nancy Pelosi or Devin Nunes, these were names that their opponents hated so much that they were able to raise an enormous amount of money,” Patterson said.

Several Republican political consultants and fundraisers echoed that point, saying Harris could galvanize Republican donors in California, who tend to direct their resources to more competitive states.

That lack of interest helps ensure Democrats enjoy overwhelming financial advantages: During his first run for governor in 2018, for example, Newsom piled up $40 million — plus more than $12 million in outside money — while his Republican general election opponent John Cox raised just $11 million from people other than himself.

Harris could change that dynamic, though she would be able to counteract a Republican bump by drawing on a national fundraising network and the deep pools of California money that powered her statewide campaigns for attorney general and Senate.

And despite Trump improving on his 2020 showing in 2024, his second-term policies are profoundly unpopular among California voters. A May statewide poll from the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found the president’s approval ratings at historically low levels, at just 30 percent.

A veteran California Republican fundraiser granted anonymity to speak candidly acknowledged that Trump has made it harder for Republicans to keep gaining ground in the blue state, particularly in a nationalized race.

“For as many gains as I think you’re going to have with average citizens who think we can’t keep voting for Democrats because the state is being run into the ground, you have as many people who are just enraged by DOGE or enraged by Trump.”

Yet even if Harris runs and wins handily, Republicans argue they stand to benefit with months to assail Harris and amplify their broader message about the Democratic Party’s stumbles.

“She has a chance to be embarrassed even if she wins,” said Republican political consultant Kevin Spillane, who managed the campaign of Harris’ 2010 attorney general opponent. “It could be a pyrrhic victory.”