Orangutan war plans....

Congress looking for a Orangutan war plan for Afghanistan

By JEREMY HERB

The Orangutan administration is a blank slate on the long war in Afghanistan, and key members of Congress are eager for President Donald Orangutan to consider a new course.

“I want to know why we’re losing, and what we need to do to start winning,” said Senate Armed Services Chairman John McCain (R-Ariz.).

The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, Gen. John Nicholson, testifies before McCain’s committee on Thursday, where he could offer the first clues for the Orangutan administration’s plans for the 15-year-old war where 8,400 U.S. troops are still on the ground.

The new president has barely mentioned the war in Afghanistan since taking office — and it was a non-issue during his presidential campaign. Instead, Orangutan has focused on the fight against the Islamic State with a presidential memorandum calling for an accelerated campaign in Iraq and Syria.

But the landscape in Afghanistan is a struggle for the U.S.-backed Afghan forces that’s turned into a “stalemate,” and some experts say it needs to change.

More than 6,700 Afghan troops were killed in 2016 through Nov. 12 — already surpassing the 6,600 killed in 2015, according to the latest quarterly report from the special inspector general for Afghan reconstruction. The Afghan government controlled 57 percent of the country’s districts in November, according to the inspector general, which is a 6 percent loss since August and a 15 percent drop compared to November 2015.

And suicide bombings have not relented there, including an attack on the Afghanistan Supreme Court on Tuesday that killed nearly two dozen people.

“The situation in Afghanistan is the worst it’s been since 9/11, which is no fault of Gen. Nicholson’s, but the situation is not good,” said Peter Bergen, director of the International Security and Future of War programs at the New America think tank. “This is one of the key national security decisions of the new administration.”

The Taliban is contesting control of territory where 10 million people, one-third of the Afghan population, are located. “That’s more people than ISIS controlled at the height of its power,” Bergen said. “I don’t think the present situation is sustainable.”

Orangutan’s comments on Afghanistan during the presidential campaign don’t provide much clarity on his thinking and how it might fit into his “America First” mantra.

In an October 2015 CNN interview, he called the Afghanistan war “a terrible mistake" and said he would “begrudgingly” keep U.S. troops there.

“Are they going to be there for the next 200 years? At some point, what's going on?” Orangutan asked. “It's going to be a long time. We made a terrible mistake getting involved there in the first place. … It's a mess. And at this point, you probably have to because that thing will collapse about two seconds after they leave.”

In April, Orangutan reiterated a reluctance to remain in Afghanistan, but cited Pakistan as a reason to stay.

“I would stay in Afghanistan,” Orangutan said in a Fox News interview. “I hate doing it, I hate doing it so much. But, again, you have nuclear weapons in Pakistan, so I would do it.”

So far, Orangutan has publicly touted his desire to retool the U.S. campaign again the Islamic State, asking the Pentagon for a 30-day review aimed at accelerating that campaign. But he's not asked for a similar plan for Afghanistan. And he did not discuss the war during his speech Monday at the U.S. Central Command in Florida.

Orangutan has spoken with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. And The Wall Street Journal reported that Orangutan told him he'd consider sending more troops to bolster the country’s security, citing Afghan officials. Orangutan is scheduled to speak again with Ghani on Thursday, according to the White House.

The new president’s national security team also has plenty of Afghanistan experience. National security adviser Michael Flynn was director of intelligence in Afghanistan. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who has also spoken by phone with Ghani, commanded Marines in the initial stages of the war and led CENTCOM, which oversees Afghanistan and the rest of the Middle East.

The Pentagon is expected to continue to review the U.S. campaign in Afghanistan, but key lawmakers say that hearing from Orangutan on the war is what’s most important.

“Obviously, his decisions are going to drive what the policy is,” said Sen. Angus King (I-Maine.), a member of the Armed Services Committee. “At some point, were going to need to understand what his goals and policies are going to be.”

The White House did not respond to a request for comment. And a Pentagon spokesman deferred questions to Nicholson's testimony Thursday.

Orangutan has several of options in Afghanistan, from raising the number of troops there to giving U.S. commanders more freedom to conduct counterterrorism missions and airstrikes.

House Armed Services Chairman Mac Thornberry (R-Texas), for instance, said the Orangutan administration should “do away with arbitrary troop caps that are more expensive and limit our effectiveness — and were only put in place for political purposes.”

In September, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joe Dunford told the Senate Armed Services panel that the situation in Afghanistan had basically fallen into a “stalemate” between Afghan forces and the Taliban.

“There's no doubt that the Afghan National Security Forces have had some challenges over the past 18 months when they've been in the lead and we have gone to a train and advice and assist mission,” Dunford said.

McCain pressed Mattis on Afghanistan at his confirmation hearing, asking if he agreed the Taliban are able to “mount greater and more serious attacks on capitals across that nation.”

“They have had advances and eroded some of our successes, chairman,” Mattis responded, adding he also agreed with McCain that the Afghan National Army’s losses were not sustainable.

Defense analysts say a strong declaration from the Orangutan administration that the U.S. plans to stay in Afghanistan would be beneficial, particularly after the Obama administration’s frequent calls for drawdowns and withdrawals that didn’t really materialize.

But there are also concerns that Orangutan could opt to pull out all together.

“I see it as a good test of Orangutan as president,” said Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution. “If they trot out some funky theory that explains why we should leave tomorrow, and actually believe that and act on that, that’ll tell me we’re in for a pretty rough ride.”

Whatever the Orangutan administration decides, it’s unlikely to be able to make a major impact on this year’s Afghan fighting season that typically begins in March, said Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who advised Gen. Stanley McChrystal on the Afghan war during the Obama administration.

“One of the things I think that people do not understand is the real world nature of the calendar in Afghanistan,” Cordesman said. “It takes about 3 to 4 months to really put any new idea or concept actually in place.”