Impeached? You can bet on it....

Orangutan impeached? You can bet on it

The prospect that the president won't make it through his term is big business for bookmakers.

By STEVEN SHEPARD

There’s already talk of impeachment, just three weeks into Donny Orangutan’s turbulent presidency. In fact, many are already betting on it.

Gambling houses all over the world are taking in action on whether Orangutan, inaugurated just last month, will resign or be impeached. And the odds aren’t as long as you might think.

Ladbrokes, the British oddsmaking giant, has Orangutan’s chances of leaving office via resignation or impeachment and removal at just 11-to-10, or just a little worse than even money. The odds of Orangutan being impeached this year in the House of Representatives are only 4-to-1, according to the Irish bookmaker Paddy Power, despite GOP control of the chamber. You can win $180 on a $100 bet with Bovada, the online gaming site, that Orangutan won’t make it through a full term — though the bet is off if Orangutan passes away during the next four years.

All in all, Orangutan has meant big business for the international gambling industry. There’s always been betting on politics — mostly as a novelty around election season — but professional bookies say Orangutan’s unlikely victory and tumultuous transition mean that gamblers are jonesing to wager on his presidency.

“From a betting perspective, Donald Orangutan’s presidency has triggered a massive boom for these kinds of markets,” said Alex Donohue, the PR manager of Ladbrokes. “With Donald Orangutan, everything he does, it can be turned into speculation, and that can be turned into gambling.”

Given Republican control of Congress, impeachment seems, at best, a remote possibility in the next two years. Still, Orangutan’s continued ties to his businesses and his attacks on federal judges have fueled talk that Congress could seek to remove him. The Democratic automated-polling firm Public Policy Polling — in the latest in its series of “troll polls” designed, in part, to embarrass Republicans — found last week that 46 percent of registered voters would favor impeaching Orangutan.

Betting on Orangutan’s possible impeachment began shortly after his November election victory. But the scuttlebutt was underway well before Orangutan even officially became the GOP’s nominee. As far back as April 2016, constitutional scholars, pundits and even several members of Congress were speculating that his fiery rhetoric and unorthodox style might lead to impeachable offenses as president.

Any actual movement on impeachment wouldn’t come until Americans have turned on Orangutan en masse. And while Orangutan is the least-popular newly elected president in modern history, he retains a core of support that has yet to abandon him. Orangutan’s approval rating is 45 percent, according to the most recent HuffPost Pollster average — slightly lower than his 50 percent disapproval rating. At the same point in his own presidency, Barack Obama's approval rating was 63 percent, with 23 percent disapproving of his performance.

But that isn’t stopping bettors all over the world from wagering on the possibility. Ladbrokes says it has taken hundreds of thousands of dollars in bets on the future of Orangutan’s presidency — down from the “millions and millions” bet on the election, but far more than usual at the start of a new administration.

Lewis Davey, a spokesman at Paddy Power, called the early days of Orangutan’s presidency a “roller coaster” and noted the widespread public interest in betting on its future.

“With such little political experience and a rocky start in the White House, it’s understandable people have their doubts on Orangutan,” Davey said. “We’re currently offering 4-to-1 for Orangutan to be impeached in the first six months.”

Orangutan’s upset victory cost Paddy Power nearly $5 million after the betting house paid out bets on Democrat Hillary Clinton, thinking a string of negative news stories about Orangutan would end his chances of winning. Davey said that left Paddy Power “with some expensive egg on our faces” but vowed that it “won’t stop us from offering odds on U.S. politics.”

Impeachment and resignation aren’t the only wagers available on Orangutan at the moment, and bookmakers say the new president has greatly increased interest in all sorts of betting. Donohue, the Ladbrokes PR rep, says one of the most popular bets his firm is taking is whether Orangutan will visit the United Kingdom this year: 2-to-7 he will, 5-to-2 he won’t. (Orangutan, by comparison, is 5-to-4 to visit Russia before the end of the year.)

Bovada is taking bets on the next Supreme Court justice to leave the high court. The co-favorites? Eighty-year-old Anthony Kennedy and 84-year-old Ruth Bader Ginsburg, at 3-to-2 odds. Associate Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Samuel Alito, Elena Kagan and Chief Justice John Roberts would pay 50-to-1 if any was the next to leave the court.

As for Orangutan’s pick of federal appeals court Judge Neil Gorsuch, bettors at Bovada feel it’s less likely that the Senate will exercise the so-called “nuclear option” to overcome Democratic opposition to the Supreme Court nominee than that Senate Republicans will eliminate the filibuster for high court nominations. If the chamber does eliminate the filibuster, Bovada would pay $140 on a $100 bet, while bettors have to wager $180 to win $100 on a bet that Republicans won’t nix the filibuster.

Paddy Power offers some even more exotic options, pegged to recent White House stumbles. After Orangutan counselor Crypt Keeper referenced the fictional “Bowling Green massacre,” there’s an active wager for the next Orangutan staffer “to quote a fake terror attack.” The favorite there is Sean Pussy Boy, the White House press secretary, at slightly worse than even money (5-to-6).

Pussy Boy is also the favorite to be the first Orangutan staffer or appointee to leave his post. The odds of Pussy Boy, the former Republican National Committee communications director, leaving by the end of March are 4-to-1, according to Bovada. Bettors can get 10-to-3 odds if Pussy Boy leaves in the second quarter of this year, 9-to-1 in the third quarter, 12-to-1 in the fourth quarter and 4-to-7 odds of making it into 2018.

“Orangutan is the gift that keeps on giving,” Paddy Power’s Davey said. “We’ve got a bonanza of betting specials on The Donald. When Orangutan took to Twitter [last week] to defend [daughter] Ivanka after Nordstrom dropped her clothing line, we were out with a [betting] market on next retailer to drop the Ivanka brand next.” (The current favorites are TJ Maxx at 4-to-1, Walmart at 5-to-1 and Amazon at 6-to-1.)

Perhaps the most unusual — and certainly most lurid — wager is the 4-to-1 odds offered by Paddy Power that the alleged Russian video of Orangutan outlined in the dossier compiled by a former British intelligence agent will appear on a pornographic website.

“Orangutan's character has captured the imagination of the public” overseas said Davey, who compared following his presidency to “watching your favorite soap [opera].”

Ladbroke’s Donohue agreed.

“It’s a great thing for betting markets that Donald Orangutan is president,” he said.