Turkish elections

6 takeaways from the Turkish elections

A defiant Erdoğan rides back to power on a wave of violence.

By Aykan Erdemir

After losing their single-party majority for the first time in 12 years, the Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) returned to power after a five-month intermission. Turkey’s supposedly nonpartisan president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has demonstrated his mastery of politics by winning the election gamble to lead his party back to government. Although the AKP has failed to win the super-majority needed to unilaterally impose an executive presidential system tailor-made for Erdoğan, the party regained a clear mandate to rule Turkey for the next four years.

1. Violence wins

Since the June elections, Turkish politics has been marred by intimidation and violence, by the Turkish state, the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) and the Islamic State, leading to hundreds of casualties. Erdoğan seems to have ridden the wave of mayhem back to power by taking the votes of Turkish nationalists away from the far-right MHP and of religious Kurds from the pro-Kurdish HDP. The AKP’s promise of strong leadership, security and stability seems to have struck a chord with an electorate deeply worried about Turkey’s spiraling into violence in a volatile region. Ironically, the PKK’s fight against Erdoğan helped him back into power. But the PKK could, now, step back from the unilateral ceasefire it declared in the aftermath of ISIL’s Ankara bombing on October 10 and return to its tradition of violence.

2. Turkey descends further into competitive authoritarianism

Although the AKP lost its single-party majority in June, the party has managed to rule Turkey for the last five months without sharing power with the opposition, with the exception of a 25-day term when it had two HDP ministers. The AKP used the five-month run-up to the snap elections to crack down on opposition NGOs and businesses, take over critical media, and intimidate journalists and opposition figures, and this strategy has seemed to produce significant gains for Erdoğan. He will most likely try to settle scores with the remaining critical media, businesses and NGOs, thus further undermining Turkey’s democracy, rights and freedoms, and rule of law. The next general elections, expected to take place in 2019, could end up being the most unfair and fraudulent elections to date.

3. The Peoples’ Democracy Party (HDP) is here to stay

The HDP was the first pro-Kurdish party in Turkish history to pass the 10 percent threshold to gain representation in parliament. Although the failure of the Kurdish peace process and the escalation of the PKK violence have presented significant challenges for the HDP, the party managed to clear the threshold again, albeit with significant losses. The HDP became the first pro-Kurdish party to win seats in the Turkish parliament. If the party can do some soul-searching to question the PKK’s hardline tactics that have, unfortunately, served Erdoğan’s authoritarian ambitions, it could be integrated further into the Turkish political system…

4. Turkey’s far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP) has committed suicide

Turkey’s far-right nationalists were hoping to make notable gains, capitalizing on the Turkish reaction to the rise of PKK violence. To their dismay, they lost a quarter of their votes. This, however, was a disaster in the making. Since the June elections, the MHP refused to enter into any coalition, failed to undertake proactive policies and purged most of its competent members from candidate lists. Although the MHP leadership expected the party’s staunchly ideological grassroots to remain loyal to the party no matter what, they were shocked to learn that even far-right voters hold their leaders accountable.

5. A Pyrrhic victory for the AKP

The AKP leadership and cadres seem to be jubilant with a landslide victory that no pollster saw coming. The results, however, could push the party further toward authoritarian excesses and reprisals against the opposition. If the AKP continues on its path to undermine Turkey’s rule of law, free markets, and media freedoms, the country could melt down further into the toxic climate of authoritarianism. If the elections end up highlighting Turkey’s image as a grudgingly democratic authoritarian regime, it could turn into a Pyrrhic victory for the AKP as it suffers the economic costs and political consequences of Turkey’s drift away from the transatlantic world.

6. This could be the beginning of the end for Davutoğlu-Erdoğan duo

These elections failed to provide Erdoğan with the super-majority he needed to bestow upon himself the executive presidential powers he covets. Prime minister Davutoğlu, however, has won a significant victory, proving his leadership skills and strengthening his credentials within the AKP. Can these two leaders continue to work in harmony? Will Davutoğlu feel tired of working under the tutelage and shadow of Erdoğan? If the two fail to arrive at a modus vivendi about the future parameters of power sharing, election celebrations could soon lead to brutal infighting in the AKP ranks, adding further fuel to Turkey’s political chaos and conflict.

Aykan Erdemir is a former member of the Turkish Parliament for the Social-democrat CHP and a nonresident senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. He currently teaches at Bilkent University in Ankara.